Climate Change: adaptation, mitigation and the statistical system

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Climate Change adaptation, mitigation and the
statistical system

• The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report

Peter Bosch TSU IPCC WG III
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IPCC Working group I, the physical science basis

• .Most of the observed increase in globally
  averaged temperatures since the mid-21th
  century is very likely due to the observed
  increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas
  concentrations..

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IPCC Working group II, impacts, adaptation and
vulnerability

• . Observational evidence from all continents and
  most oceans shows that many natural systems are
  being affected by regional climate changes,
  particularly temperature increases..

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IPCC Working group III, mitigation

• . There is substantial economic potential for
  the mitigation of global GHG emissions over the
  coming decades, that could offset the projected
  growth of global emissions or reduce emissions
  below current levels..

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G8 conclusions of the chair

• Climate Change, Energy Efficiency and Energy
  Security
• ... We noted with concern the recent IPCC
  report and its findings. We are convinced that
  urgent and concerted action is needed and accept
  our responsibility to show leadership in tackling
  climate change. .

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IPCC Working group II, impacts, adaptation and
vulnerability

• Water availability projections
• 10-40 up in high latitudes some wet tropical
  areas
• 10-30 down in dry regions in mid latitudes and
  in the dry tropics

• More drought, more flood risk

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IPCC Working group II, impacts, adaptation and
vulnerability

• Crop productivity
• Projected to increase slightly at mid to high
  latitudes (with 1-3 ºC) depending on the crop
• Projected to decrease at lower latitudes, esp. in
  seasonally dry and tropical regions, for even
  small temp. increases (1-2 ºC)

• Adaptations altered cultivars and planting times

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IPCC Working group II, impacts, adaptation and
vulnerability

• Forestry
• Globally commercial timber productivity projected
  to increase modestly in short-medium term
• Fisheries
• Regional changes in distribution and production
  of fish species. Adverse effects for aquaculture
  and fisheries

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IPCC Working group II, impacts, adaptation and
vulnerability

• Settlements
• Most vulnerable industries, settlements and
  societies in coastal and river flood plains.
• Human health
• Increase in malnutrition
• Increased death, injury, disease due to extreme
  events
• Increased burden of diarrhoeal disease
• Altered distribution of infectious disease factors

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Summarising with a view on adaptation to climate
change increasing interest in

• Agricultural statistics
• Forestry statistics
• Fisheries statistics
• Population statistics
• Health statistics
• Energy statistics

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IPCC Working group III, mitigation of climate
change

• Between 1970 and 2004 global greenhouse gas
  emissions have increased by 70

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Carbon dioxide is the largest contributor
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With current climate change mitigation policies,
global GHG emissions will continue to grow over
the next few decades

• IPCC SRES scenarios 25-90
• increase of GHG emissions
• in 2030 relative to 2000

GtCO2eq/yr
2030
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Economic mitigation potential until 2030 could
offset the projected growth of global emissions,
or reduce emissions below current levels

• Both bottom-up and top-down studies

TOP-DOWN
BOTTOM-UP
Global economic potential in 2030
Note estimates do not include non-technical
options such as lifestyle changes
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What does US 50/ tCO2eq mean?

• Crude oil US 25/ barrel
• Gasoline 12 ct/ litre (50 ct/gallon)
• Electricity
• from coal fired plant 5 ct/kWh
• from gas fired plant 1.5 ct/kWh

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All sectors and regions have the potential to
contribute (end-use based)
Note estimates do not include non-technical
options, such as lifestyle changes.
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How can emissions be reduced?
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How can emissions be reduced?
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How can emissions be reduced?
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Changes in lifestyle and behaviour patterns can
contribute to climate change mitigation

• Changes in occupant behaviour, cultural patterns
  and consumer choice in buildings.
• Behaviour of staff in industrial organizations in
  light of reward systems
• Reduction of car usage and efficient driving
  style, in relation to urban planning and
  availability of public transport

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What are the macro-economic costs in 2030?

• Costs are global average for least cost
  approaches from top-down models
• Costs do not include co-benefits and avoided
  climate change damages

1 This is global GDP based market exchange
rates. 2 The median and the 10th and 90th
percentile range of the analyzed data are
given. 3 The calculation of the reduction of
the annual growth rate is based on the average
reduction during the period till 2030 that
would result in the indicated GDP decrease in
2030. 4 The number of studies that report GDP
results is relatively small and they generally
use low baselines.
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There are also co-benefits of mitigation

• Nearterm health benefits from reduced air
  pollution may offset a substantial fraction of
  mitigation costs
• Mitigation can also be positive for energy
  security, balance of trade improvement, provision
  of modern energy services to rural areas,
  sustainable agriculture and employment

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Stabilisation of GHG concentrations (radiative
forcing) in the atmosphere and emission
reductions

• The lower the stabilisation level the earlier
  global CO2 emissions have to peak

Multigas and CO2 only studies combined
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An effective carbon-price signal could realise
significant mitigation potential in all sectors

• Policies that provide a real or implicit price of
  carbon could create incentives for producers and
  consumers to significantly invest in low-GHG
  products, technologies and processes.
• Such policies could include economic instruments,
  government funding and regulation
• For stabilisation at around 550 ppm CO2eq carbon
  prices should reach 20-80 US/tCO2eq by 2030
• (5-65 if induced technological change
  happens)
• At these carbon prices large shifts of
  investments into low carbon technologies can be
  expected

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Investments

• Energy infrastructure investment decisions, (20
  trillion US till 2030) will have long term
  impacts on GHG emissions.
• The widespread diffusion of low-carbon
  technologies may take many decades, even if early
  investments in these technologies are made
  attractive.

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The importance of technology policies

• The lower the stabilization levels (550 ppm
  CO2-eq or lower) the greater the need for more
  efficient RDD efforts and investment in new
  technologies during the next few decades
• Government support is important for effective
  technology development, innovation and deployment
  
• BUT, government funding for most energy research
  programmes has been declining for nearly two
  decades now about half of 1980 level.

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Summarising with a view on mitigation of climate
change increasing interest in

• Environment statistics (emissions, waste
  management, environmental expenditures)
• Energy balances
• Transport statistics (modal split, fuel use,
  types and length of journeys)
• Land-use statistics (aff/deforestation)
• Agricultural Forestry statistics (energy crops
  production, area changes, management changes)
• Trade statistics (flows of energy and energy
  crops)
• National Accounts (system integration to produce
  various efficiency indicators, information for
  decomposition analysis, dedicated RD
  expenditures

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