Creating a Statewide Modeling System in Virginia

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Creating a Statewide Modeling System in Virginia
Presentation for the 11th TRB National
Transportation Planning Applications
Conference May 7, 2007
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Outline

• Overview of Modeling in Virginia
• Creating the Virginia Transportation Modeling
  (VTM) System
• Implementation of VTM System
• Lessons Learned

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Travel Demand Modeling in Virginia 1960-Early
1990s

• 1960-1970s
• Extensive Survey Work and several 3 and 4-step
  models created. Models run on mainframe
  computers.
• 1980s
• Models switched from Mainframe to MINUTP and
  TRANPLAN software.
• Technical Transportation Planners wear many hats
  including Travel Demand Modeling
• Early 1990s
• Decline in VDOT in house modeling capability as
  many technical transportation planning staff
  knowledgeable about travel demand modeling move
  on to other jobs or retire.
• Modeling Needs begin to increase significantly.

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Travel Demand Modeling in Virginia Mid 1990s
Early 2000s

• Modeling Needs Continue to Increase
• Air Quality Conformity
• Transit, Toll, and Freight
• Seven new models
• Number of Models maintained by VDOT more than
  doubles
• Number of VDOT Staff doing modeling work
  decreases
• Many problems with consultant led modeling
  projects

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Travel Demand Modeling in Virginia Early 2000s
- Present

• 2003
• Creation of New VDOT Central Office Modeling
  Group
• 2004
• Modeling Group begins work on VTM Modeling System
• 2005
• VTM Model Users Group Created
• 2006
• VTM Modeling System Policy Procedures Manual
  Completed
• Implementation of VTM Modeling System begins
• Most models moved to a common software platform
  and format CUBE Voyager
• State/MPO Modeling Staff increase after several
  years of decline
• Modeling needs continue to increase

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VDOT Central Office
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Why Did VDOT Decide to Create a Statewide Model
System?

• Efficiency
• Consistency
• Easier to Maintain and Train
• Quicker Turnaround on Model Requests
• Technically Defensible
• Move Towards Best Practice
• Large Model Regions Advanced 4-Step
• Small Model Regions Basic 3 or 4-Step
• Renewed focus on Project Level Forecasting

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What type of Modeling System to Create?
How comprehensive should it be? How high should
standards be? How standardized do models need to
be? How to balance needs between small and large
urban areas? How to make system flexible to
handle future needs?
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Development Process

• Initially Limited Outreach
• VDOT Central Office Modeling Staff
• Eventually Collaborative Effort
• VDOT Central Office Modeling Staff
• VDOT Central Office Planning Staff
• VDOT District Modeling Staff
• VDOT District Planning Staff
• Planning District Commissions
• Metropolitan Planning Organizations
• Creation of Virginia Transportation Modeling
  (VTM) Users Group

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Virginia Transportation Modeling (VTM) System

• Comprehensive Minimum Guidelines Standards
• All Urban Area models
• Full Range of Travel Demand Modeling activities
  Inputs to Analysis
• Some Standardization
• Software
• Acceptable Procedures
• File Names
• Transportation Network Attributes
• Higher Standards for Large vs. Small Model
  Regions
• Acceptable vs. Recommended Practice
• Maintain some Flexibility
• Guidelines vs. Standards
• Possible to go above and beyond minimum
  guidelines standards

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Existing Travel Demand Modeling Regions
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Future Travel Demand Modeling Regions
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Policies and Procedures Manual
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Examples from Policy and Procedures Manual TAZs
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Policy and Procedures Manual Mode Choice
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Policy and Procedures Manual Guidelines for
Cutline Analysis
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Policy and Procedures Manual Dynamic Validation
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Implementation Process

• Work in Progress
• Improving Land Use Forecasting Process
• Moving all models to common software format
  Citilabs CUBE Voyager Catalogs
• Transportation Network Standardization
• Linking Transportation Networks with GIS and
  State Traffic Databases
• Multi-year Effort
• Five Year Plan FY 2007 FY 2012
• Large Data Collection Efforts Planned
• NHTS Survey Add-Ons Statewide
• External Station Surveys

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Lessons Learned

• It takes a Village
• Collaborative Effort Needed
• Partnership VDOT, Planning District Commissions,
  MPOs, and State Universities
• Extensive Outreach and Education about Travel
  Demand Modeling Needed
• Rome was not built in a day
• Initial Efforts were too Ambitious
• Do not overextend Staff Resources
• Measuring Expectations
• Balancing Development vs. Application Needs
• Coordination with Air Quality Conformity
  schedules
• Coordination with CLRP and Corridor Study
  schedules

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Questions?