Work, life and the future: where are we going

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Work, life and the future where are we going?

• Frances Cairncross
• Exeter College, Oxford
• FEMB, Rotterdam
• June 24th 2005

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How to take a long view
Exeter College, founded 1314. Palmer's Tower,
built 1432
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This presentation looks at...

• The changing world environment
• The changing business environment

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Prediction can be difficult...

• Television will never be a serious competitor
  for radio because people must sit and keep their
  eyes glued on a screen the average American
  family hasnt time for it.
• The New York Times, reporting the 1939
  Worlds Fair

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Asked in 1898 what he thought would be the
decisive factor in modern history, Otto von
Bismarck repliedThe fact that North Americans
speak English.
But not impossible!
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The changing world -

• A new balance of power

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The changing world -

• A new balance of power
• Many more old folk (especially in Europe)

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Four views of the futureWorld population
projections 2000-2050
Source UN
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Globally, more old, fewer young
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Fewer workers, more old folk over 65s as of
workforce
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The changing world -

• A new balance of power
• Many more old folk (especially in Europe)
• More competition for natural resources

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The coming scramble for oil Global oil-import
dependency
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Long-term projection of oil demand
M bpd. Source IMF
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The worlds growing water demands
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The changing world -

• A new balance of power
• Many more old folk (especially in Europe)
• More competition for natural resources
• Smaller government (but still interfering!)

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Flat tax Eastern Europes bright idea

• Estonia
• Lithuania
• Latvia
• Russia
• Serbia
• Slovakia
• Romania

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The changing world -

• A new balance of power
• Many more old folk (especially in Europe)
• More competition for natural resources
• Smaller government (but still interfering!)
• New technologies

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The 20th century was changed by
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And in this century
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The Company of the Future

• Technology shapes companies
• - Most people expected too much too soon
• - The big changes are within companies -
• - and between companies

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The first managerial revolution
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The second managerial revolution
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Communications technology

• Makes markets work better
• Increases access to information
• Forces global thinking
• Makes networks matter
• Creates new products

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The changing world for business

• New working patterns

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New working patterns

• The office as factory

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Factory, 2005-style
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New working patterns

• The office as factory
• The office as club
• The home as production unit

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and also

• New kinds of job (did your university train web
  designers?)
• More part-time, more all-the-time
• Top talent or no talent

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Part-timers as of all workers
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The changing world for business

• New working patterns
• New consumer power

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New ways to shop
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The consumers invention
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The changing world for business

• New working patterns
• New consumer power
• New business opportunities

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One way to earn a living
Work, Fun, and a Career You will LOVE!
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The mini-multinational
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The changing world for business

• New working patterns
• New consumer power
• New business opportunities
• New competitors

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The great hand-over
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Not everyone is Dell!
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Death of distance
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The worlds factory
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The worlds office
IT and BPO employment in India
Forecast
Source NASSCOM
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And what of the Netherlands?

• An admirably open economy
• but part of the Eurozone

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New Dutch Disease?
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Consumers unconfident
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Your clever secret
International student assessments PISA scores,
OECD 2003
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The Future?
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Work, life and the future where are we going?

• Frances Cairncross
• Exeter College, Oxford
• FEMB, Rotterdam
• June 24th 2005