Adrian Cheung

1 / 95
About This Presentation
Title:

Adrian Cheung

Description:

Lecture 4. Adrian Cheung. Chapter. 11. Risk and. Return. Key Concepts and Skills ... Expected returns are based on the probabilities of possible outcomes ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

Number of Views:63
Avg rating:3.0/5.0
Slides: 96
Provided by: Adri224

less

Transcript and Presenter's Notes

Title: Adrian Cheung


1
Lecture 4
  • Adrian Cheung

2
Chapter
11
Risk and Return
3
Key Concepts and Skills
  • Know how to calculate expected returns
  • Understand the impact of diversification
  • Understand the systematic risk principle
  • Understand the security market line
  • Understand the risk-return trade-off

4
Chapter Outline
  • Expected Returns and Variances
  • Portfolios
  • Announcements, Surprises, and Expected Returns
  • Risk Systematic and Unsystematic
  • Diversification and Portfolio Risk
  • Systematic Risk and Beta
  • The Security Market Line
  • The SML and the Cost of Capital A Preview

5
Expected Returns
  • Expected returns are based on the probabilities
    of possible outcomes
  • In this context, expected means average if the
    process is repeated many times
  • The expected return does not even have to be a
    possible return

6
Example Expected Returns
  • Suppose you have predicted the following returns
    for stocks C and T in three possible states of
    nature. What are the expected returns?
  • State Probability C T
  • Boom 0.3 0.15 0.25
  • Normal 0.5 0.10 0.20
  • Recession ??? 0.02 0.01
  • RC .3(.15) .5(.10) .2(.02) .099 9.99
  • RT .3(.25) .5(.20) .2(.01) .177 17.7

7
Variance and Standard Deviation
  • Variance and standard deviation still measure the
    volatility of returns
  • Using unequal probabilities for the entire range
    of possibilities
  • Weighted average of squared deviations

8
Example Variance and Standard Deviation
  • Consider the previous example. What are the
    variance and standard deviation for each stock?
  • Stock C
  • ?2 .3(.15-.099)2 .5(.1-.099)2 .2(.02-.099)2
    .002029
  • ? .045
  • Stock T
  • ?2 .3(.25-.177)2 .5(.2-.177)2 .2(.01-.177)2
    .007441
  • ? .0863

9
Portfolios
  • A portfolio is a collection of assets
  • An assets risk and return is important in how it
    affects the risk and return of the portfolio
  • The risk-return trade-off for a portfolio is
    measured by the portfolio expected return and
    standard deviation, just as with individual assets

10
Example Portfolio Weights
  • Suppose you have 15,000 to invest and you have
    purchased securities in the following amounts.
    What are your portfolio weights in each security?
  • 2000 of DCLK
  • 3000 of KO
  • 4000 of INTC
  • 6000 of KEI
  • DCLK 2/15 .133
  • KO 3/15 .2
  • INTC 4/15 .267
  • KEI 6/15 .4

11
Portfolio Expected Returns
  • The expected return of a portfolio is the
    weighted average of the expected returns for each
    asset in the portfolio
  • You can also find the expected return by finding
    the portfolio return in each possible state and
    computing the expected value as we did with
    individual securities

12
Example Expected Portfolio Returns
  • Consider the portfolio weights computed
    previously. If the individual stocks have the
    following expected returns, what is the expected
    return for the portfolio?
  • DCLK 19.65
  • KO 8.96
  • INTC 9.67
  • KEI 8.13
  • E(RP) .133(19.65) .2(8.96) .167(9.67)
    .4(8.13) 9.27

13
Portfolio Variance
  • Compute the portfolio return for each stateRP
    w1R1 w2R2 wmRm
  • Compute the expected portfolio return using the
    same formula as for an individual asset
  • Compute the portfolio variance and standard
    deviation using the same formulas as for an
    individual asset

14
Example Portfolio Variance
  • Consider the following information
  • Invest 50 of your money in Asset A
  • State Probability A B
  • Boom .4 30 -5
  • Bust .6 -10 25
  • What is the expected return and standard
    deviation for each asset?
  • What is the expected return and standard
    deviation for the portfolio?

Portfolio 12.5 7.5
15
Expected versus Unexpected Returns
  • Realized returns are generally not equal to
    expected returns
  • There is the expected component and the
    unexpected component
  • At any point in time, the unexpected return can
    be either positive or negative
  • Over time, the average of the unexpected
    component is zero

16
Announcements and News
  • Announcements and news contain both an expected
    component and a surprise component
  • It is the surprise component that affects a
    stocks price and therefore its return
  • This is very obvious when we watch how stock
    prices move when an unexpected announcement is
    made or earnings are different than anticipated

17
Efficient Markets
  • Efficient markets are a result of investors
    trading on the unexpected portion of
    announcements
  • The easier it is to trade on surprises, the more
    efficient markets should be
  • Efficient markets involve random price changes
    because we cannot predict surprises

18
Systematic Risk
  • Risk factors that affect a large number of assets
  • Also known as non-diversifiable risk or market
    risk
  • Includes such things as changes in GDP,
    inflation, interest rates, etc.

19
Unsystematic Risk
  • Risk factors that affect a limited number of
    assets
  • Also known as unique risk and asset-specific risk
  • Includes such things as labor strikes, part
    shortages, etc.

20
Returns
  • Total Return expected return unexpected
    return
  • Unexpected return systematic portion
    unsystematic portion
  • Therefore, total return can be expressed as
    follows
  • Total Return expected return systematic
    portion unsystematic portion

21
Diversification
  • Portfolio diversification is the investment in
    several different asset classes or sectors
  • Diversification is not just holding a lot of
    assets
  • For example, if you own 50 internet stocks, you
    are not diversified
  • However, if you own 50 stocks that span 20
    different industries, then you are diversified

22
Table 11.7
( 3) (2) Ratio of Portfolio
(1) Average Standard Standard Deviation to
Number of Stocks Deviation of Annual Standard
Deviation in Portfolio Portfolio Returns of a
Single Stock 1 49.24 1.00 10 23.93
0.49 50 20.20 0.41 100 19.69 0.40
300 19.34 0.39 500 19.27 0.39
1,000 19.21 0.39
23
The Principle of Diversification
  • Diversification can substantially reduce the
    variability of returns without an equivalent
    reduction in expected returns
  • This reduction in risk arises because worse than
    expected returns from one asset are offset by
    better than expected returns from another
  • However, there is a minimum level of risk that
    cannot be diversified away and that is the
    systematic portion

24
Figure 11.1
Average annualstandard deviation ()
Diversifiable risk
Nondiversifiablerisk
Number of stocksin portfolio
25
Diversifiable Risk
  • The risk that can be eliminated by combining
    assets into a portfolio
  • Often considered the same as unsystematic, unique
    or asset-specific risk
  • If we hold only one asset, or assets in the same
    industry, then we are exposing ourselves to risk
    that we could diversify away

26
Total Risk
  • Total risk systematic risk unsystematic risk
  • The standard deviation of returns is a measure of
    total risk
  • For well diversified portfolios, unsystematic
    risk is very small
  • Consequently, the total risk for a diversified
    portfolio is essentially equivalent to the
    systematic risk

27
Systematic Risk Principle
  • There is a reward for bearing risk
  • There is not a reward for bearing risk
    unnecessarily
  • The expected return on a risky asset depends only
    on that assets systematic risk since
    unsystematic risk can be diversified away

28
Measuring Systematic Risk
  • How do we measure systematic risk?
  • We use the beta coefficient to measure systematic
    risk
  • What does beta tell us?
  • A beta of 1 implies the asset has the same
    systematic risk as the overall market
  • A beta lt 1 implies the asset has less systematic
    risk than the overall market
  • A beta gt 1 implies the asset has more systematic
    risk than the overall market

29
Total versus Systematic Risk
  • Consider the following information
  • Standard Deviation Beta
  • Security C 20 1.25
  • Security K 30 0.95
  • Which security has more total risk?
  • Which security has more systematic risk?
  • Which security should have the higher expected
    return?

30
Example Portfolio Betas
  • Consider the previous example with the following
    four securities
  • Security Weight Beta
  • DCLK .133 4.03
  • KO .2 0.84
  • INTC .167 1.05
  • KEI .4 0.59
  • What is the portfolio beta?
  • .133(4.03) .2(.84) .167(1.05) .4(.59) 1.12

31
Beta and the Risk Premium
  • Remember that the risk premium expected return
    risk-free rate
  • The higher the beta, the greater the risk premium
    should be
  • Can we define the relationship between the risk
    premium and beta so that we can estimate the
    expected return?
  • YES!

32
Example Portfolio Expected Returns and Betas
E(RA)
Rf
?A
33
Reward-to-Risk Ratio Definition and Example
  • The reward-to-risk ratio is the slope of the line
    illustrated in the previous example
  • Slope (E(RA) Rf) / (?A 0)
  • Reward-to-risk ratio for previous example (20
    8) / (1.6 0) 7.5
  • What if an asset has a reward-to-risk ratio of 8
    (implying that the asset plots above the line)?
  • What if an asset has a reward-to-risk ratio of 7
    (implying that the asset plots below the line)?

34
Market Equilibrium
  • In equilibrium, all assets and portfolios must
    have the same reward-to-risk ratio and they all
    must equal the reward-to-risk ratio for the
    market

35
Security Market Line
  • The security market line (SML) is the
    representation of market equilibrium
  • The slope of the SML is the reward-to-risk ratio
    (E(RM) Rf) / ?M
  • But since the beta for the market is ALWAYS equal
    to one, the slope can be rewritten
  • Slope E(RM) Rf market risk premium

36
Capital Asset Pricing Model
  • The capital asset pricing model (CAPM) defines
    the relationship between risk and return
  • E(RA) Rf ?A(E(RM) Rf)
  • If we know an assets systematic risk, we can use
    the CAPM to determine its expected return
  • This is true whether we are talking about
    financial assets or physical assets

37
Factors Affecting Expected Return
  • Pure time value of money measured by the
    risk-free rate
  • Reward for bearing systematic risk measured by
    the market risk premium
  • Amount of systematic risk measured by beta

38
Example - CAPM
  • Consider the betas for each of the assets given
    earlier. If the risk-free rate is 6.15 and the
    market risk premium is 9.5, what is the expected
    return for each?
  • Security Beta Expected Return
  • DCLK 4.03 6.15 4.03(9.5) 44.435
  • KO 0.84 6.15 .84(9.5) 14.13
  • INTC 1.05 6.15 1.05(9.5) 16.125
  • KEI 0.59 6.15 .59(9.5) 11.755

39
Chapter 11 Quick Quiz
  • How do you compute the expected return and
    standard deviation for an individual asset? For a
    portfolio?
  • What is the difference between systematic and
    unsystematic risk?
  • What type of risk is relevant for determining the
    expected return?
  • Consider an asset with a beta of 1.2, a risk-free
    rate of 5 and a market return of 13.
  • What is the reward-to-risk ratio in equilibrium?
  • What is the expected return on the asset?

40
Chapter
12
Cost of Capital
41
Key Concepts and Skills
  • Know how to determine a firms cost of equity
    capital
  • Know how to determine a firms cost of debt
  • Know how to determine a firms overall cost of
    capital
  • Understand pitfalls of overall cost of capital
    and how to manage them

42
Chapter Outline
  • The Cost of Capital Some Preliminaries
  • The Cost of Equity
  • The Costs of Debt and Preferred Stock
  • The Weighted Average Cost of Capital
  • Divisional and Project Costs of Capital

43
Why Cost of Capital Is Important
  • We know that the return earned on assets depends
    on the risk of those assets
  • The return to an investor is the same as the cost
    to the company
  • Our cost of capital provides us with an
    indication of how the market views the risk of
    our assets
  • Knowing our cost of capital can also help us
    determine our required return for capital
    budgeting projects

44
Required Return
  • The required return is the same as the
    appropriate discount rate and is based on the
    risk of the cash flows
  • We need to know the required return for an
    investment before we can compute the NPV and make
    a decision about whether or not to take the
    investment
  • We need to earn at least the required return to
    compensate our investors for the financing they
    have provided

45
Cost of Equity
  • The cost of equity is the return required by
    equity investors given the risk of the cash flows
    from the firm
  • There are two major methods for determining the
    cost of equity
  • Dividend growth model
  • SML (or CAPM)

46
The Dividend Growth Model Approach
  • Start with the dividend growth model formula and
    rearrange to solve for RE

47
Dividend Growth Model Example
  • Suppose that your company is expected to pay a
    dividend of 1.50 per share next year. There has
    been a steady growth in dividends of 5.1 per
    year and the market expects that to continue. The
    current price is 25. What is the cost of equity?

48
Example Estimating the Dividend Growth Rate
  • One method for estimating the growth rate is to
    use the historical average
  • Year Dividend Percent Change
  • 1995 1.23
  • 1996 1.30
  • 1997 1.36
  • 1998 1.43
  • 1999 1.50

(1.30 1.23) / 1.23 5.7 (1.36 1.30) / 1.30
4.6 (1.43 1.36) / 1.36 5.1 (1.50 1.43)
/ 1.43 4.9
Average (5.7 4.6 5.1 4.9) / 4 5.1
49
Advantages and Disadvantages of Dividend Growth
Model
  • Advantage easy to understand and use
  • Disadvantages
  • Only applicable to companies currently paying
    dividends
  • Not applicable if dividends arent growing at a
    reasonably constant rate
  • Extremely sensitive to the estimated growth rate
    an increase in g of 1 increases the cost of
    equity by 1
  • Does not explicitly consider risk

50
The SML Approach
  • Use the following information to compute our cost
    of equity
  • Risk-free rate, Rf
  • Market risk premium, E(RM) Rf
  • Systematic risk of asset, ?

51
Example - SML
  • Suppose your company has an equity beta of .58
    and the current risk-free rate is 6.1. If the
    expected market risk premium is 8.6, what is
    your cost of equity capital?
  • RE 6.1 .58(8.6) 11.1
  • Since we came up with similar numbers using both
    the dividend growth model and the SML approach,
    we should feel pretty good about our estimate

52
Advantages and Disadvantages of SML
  • Advantages
  • Explicitly adjusts for systematic risk
  • Applicable to all companies, as long as we can
    compute beta
  • Disadvantages
  • Have to estimate the expected market risk
    premium, which does vary over time
  • Have to estimate beta, which also varies over
    time
  • We are relying on the past to predict the future,
    which is not always reliable

53
Example Cost of Equity
  • Suppose our company has a beta of 1.5. The market
    risk premium is expected to be 9 and the current
    risk-free rate is 6. We have used analysts
    estimates to determine that the market believes
    our dividends will grow at 6 per year and our
    last dividend was 2. Our stock is currently
    selling for 15.65. What is our cost of equity?
  • Using SML RE 6 1.5(9) 19.5
  • Using DGM RE 2(1.06) / 15.65 .06 19.55

54
Cost of Debt
  • The cost of debt is the required return on our
    companys debt
  • We usually focus on the cost of long-term debt or
    bonds
  • The required return is best estimated by
    computing the yield-to-maturity on the existing
    debt
  • We may also use estimates of current rates based
    on the bond rating we expect when we issue new
    debt
  • The cost of debt is NOT the coupon rate

55
Cost of Debt Example
  • Suppose we have a bond issue currently
    outstanding that has 25 years left to maturity.
    The coupon rate is 9 and coupons are paid
    semiannually. The bond is currently selling for
    908.72 per 1000 bond. What is the cost of debt?
  • T 50 PMT 45 FV 1000 PV -908.75 Y
    5 YTM 5(2) 10

56
Cost of Preferred Stock
  • Reminders
  • Preferred generally pays a constant dividend
    every period
  • Dividends are expected to be paid every period
    forever
  • Preferred stock is an annuity, so we take the
    annuity formula, rearrange and solve for RP
  • RP D / P0

57
Cost of Preferred Stock - Example
  • Your company has preferred stock that has an
    annual dividend of 3. If the current price is
    25, what is the cost of preferred stock?
  • RP 3 / 25 12

58
Weighted Average Cost of Capital
  • We can use the individual costs of capital that
    we have computed to get our average cost of
    capital for the firm.
  • This average is the required return on our
    assets, based on the markets perception of the
    risk of those assets
  • The weights are determined by how much of each
    type of financing that we use

59
Capital Structure Weights
  • Notation
  • E market value of equity outstanding shares
    times price per share
  • D market value of debt outstanding bonds
    times bond price
  • V market value of the firm D E
  • Weights
  • wE E/V percent financed with equity
  • wD D/V percent financed with debt

60
Example Capital Structure Weights
  • Suppose you have a market value of equity equal
    to 500 million and a market value of debt 475
    million.
  • What are the capital structure weights?
  • V 500 million 475 million 975 million
  • wE E/D 500 / 975 .5128 51.28
  • wD D/V 475 / 975 .4872 48.72

61
Taxes and the WACC
  • We are concerned with after-tax cash flows, so we
    need to consider the effect of taxes on the
    various costs of capital
  • Interest expense reduces our tax liability
  • This reduction in taxes reduces our cost of debt
  • After-tax cost of debt RD(1-TC)
  • Dividends are not tax deductible, so there is no
    tax impact on the cost of equity
  • WACC wERE wDRD(1-TC)

62
Extended Example WACC - I
  • Equity Information
  • 50 million shares
  • 80 per share
  • Beta 1.15
  • Market risk premium 9
  • Risk-free rate 5
  • Debt Information
  • 1 billion in outstanding debt (face value)
  • Current quote 110
  • Coupon rate 9, semiannual coupons
  • 15 years to maturity
  • Tax rate 40

63
Extended Example WACC - II
  • What is the cost of equity?
  • RE 5 1.15(9) 15.35
  • What is the cost of debt?
  • T 30 PV 1100 PMT 45 FV 1000 YTM
    3.9268
  • RD 3.927(2) 7.854
  • What is the after-tax cost of debt?
  • RD(1-TC) 7.854(1-.4) 4.712

64
Extended Example WACC - III
  • What are the capital structure weights?
  • E 50 million (80) 4 billion
  • D 1 billion (1.10) 1.1 billion
  • V 4 1.1 5.1 billion
  • wE E/V 4 / 5.1 .7843
  • wD D/V 1.1 / 5.1 .2157
  • What is the WACC?
  • WACC .7843(15.35) .2157(4.712) 13.06

65
Table 12.1
66
Divisional and Project Costs of Capital
  • Using the WACC as our discount rate is only
    appropriate for projects that are the same risk
    as the firms current operations
  • If we are looking at a project that is NOT the
    same risk as the firm, then we need to determine
    the appropriate discount rate for that project
  • Divisions also often require separatediscount
    rates

67
Pure Play Approach
  • Find one or more companies that specialize in the
    product or service that we are considering
  • Compute the beta for each company
  • Take an average
  • Use that beta along with the CAPM to find the
    appropriate return for a project of that risk
  • Often difficult to find pure play companies

68
Subjective Approach
  • Consider the projects risk relative to the firm
    overall
  • If the project is more risky than the firm, use a
    discount rate greater than the WACC
  • If the project is less risky than the firm, use a
    discount rate less than the WACC
  • You may still accept projects that you shouldnt
    and reject projects you should accept, but your
    error rate should be lower than not considering
    differential risk at all

69
Subjective Approach - Example
70
Chapter 12 Quick Quiz
  • What are the two approaches for computing the
    cost of equity?
  • How do you compute the cost of debt and the
    after-tax cost of debt?
  • How do you compute the capital structure weights
    required for the WACC?
  • What is the WACC?
  • What happens if we use the WACC for the discount
    rate for all projects?
  • What are two methods that can be used to compute
    the appropriate discount rate when WACC isnt
    appropriate?

71
Chapter
13
Leverage and Capital Structure
72
Key Concepts and Skills
  • Understand the effect of financial leverage on
    cash flows and cost of equity
  • Understand the impact of taxes and bankruptcy on
    capital structure choice
  • Understand the basic components of the bankruptcy
    process

73
Chapter Outline
  • The Capital Structure Question
  • The Effect of Financial Leverage
  • Capital Structure and the Cost of Equity Capital
  • Corporate Taxes and Capital Structure
  • Bankruptcy Costs
  • Optimal Capital Structure
  • Observed Capital Structures

74
Capital Restructuring
  • We are going to look at how changes in capital
    structure affect the value of the firm, all else
    equal
  • Capital restructuring involves changing the
    amount of leverage a firm has without changing
    the firms assets
  • Increase leverage by issuing debt and
    repurchasing outstanding shares
  • Decrease leverage by issuing new shares and
    retiring outstanding debt

75
Choosing a Capital Structure
  • What is the primary goal of financial managers?
  • Maximize stockholder wealth
  • We want to choose the capital structure that will
    maximize stockholder wealth
  • We can maximize stockholder wealth by maximizing
    firm value or minimizing WACC

76
The Effect of Leverage
  • How does leverage affect the EPS and ROE of a
    firm?
  • When we increase the amount of debt financing, we
    increase the fixed interest expense
  • If we have a really good year, then we pay our
    fixed cost and we have more left over for our
    stockholders
  • If we have a really bad year, we still have to
    pay our fixed costs and we have less left over
    for our stockholders
  • Leverage amplifies the variation in both EPS and
    ROE

77
Example Financial Leverage, EPS and ROE
  • We will ignore the effect of taxes at this stage
  • What happens to EPS and ROE when we issue debt
    and buy back shares of stock?

78
Example Financial Leverage, EPS and ROE
  • Variability in ROE
  • Current ROE ranges from 6.25 to 18.75
  • Proposed ROE ranges from 2.50 to 27.50
  • Variability in EPS
  • Current EPS ranges from 1.25 to 3.75
  • Proposed EPS ranges from 0.50 to 5.50
  • The variability in both ROE and EPS increases
    when financial leverage is increased

79
Break-Even EBIT
  • Find EBIT where EPS is the same under both the
    current and proposed capital structures
  • If we expect EBIT to be greater than the
    break-even point, then leverage is beneficial to
    our stockholders
  • If we expect EBIT to be less than the break-even
    point, then leverage is detrimental to our
    stockholders

80
Example Break-Even EBIT
81
Example Homemade Leverage and ROE
  • Current Capital Structure
  • Investor borrows 2000 and uses 2000 of their
    own to buy 200 shares of stock
  • Payoffs
  • Recession 200(1.25) - .1(2000) 50
  • Expected 200(2.50) - .1(2000) 300
  • Expansion 200(3.75) - .1(2000) 550
  • Mirrors the payoffs from purchasing 100 shares
    from the firm under the proposed capital structure
  • Proposed Capital Structure
  • Investor buys 1000 worth of stock (50 shares)
    and 1000 worth of Trans Am bonds paying 10.
  • Payoffs
  • Recession 50(.50) .1(1000) 125
  • Expected 50(3.00) .1(1000) 250
  • Expansion 50(5.50) .1(1000) 375
  • Mirrors the payoffs from purchasing 100 shares
    under the current capital structure

82
Capital Structure Theory
  • Modigliani and Miller Theory of Capital Structure
  • Proposition I firm value
  • Proposition II WACC
  • The value of the firm is determined by the cash
    flows to the firm and the risk of the assets
  • Changing firm value
  • Change the risk of the cash flows
  • Change the cash flows

83
Capital Structure Theory Under Three Special Cases
  • Case I Assumptions
  • No corporate or personal taxes
  • No bankruptcy costs
  • Case II Assumptions
  • Corporate taxes, but no personal taxes
  • No bankruptcy costs
  • Case III Assumptions
  • Corporate taxes, but no personal taxes
  • Bankruptcy costs

84
Case I Propositions I and II
  • Proposition I
  • The value of the firm is NOT affected by changes
    in the capital structure
  • The cash flows of the firm do not change,
    therefore value doesnt change
  • Proposition II
  • The WACC of the firm is NOT affected by capital
    structure

85
Case II Cash Flows
  • Interest is tax deductible
  • Therefore, when a firm adds debt, it reduces
    taxes, all else equal
  • The reduction in taxes increases the cash flow of
    the firm
  • How should an increase in cash flows affect the
    value of the firm?

86
Case II - Example
87
Interest Tax Shield
  • Annual interest tax shield
  • Tax rate times interest payment
  • 6250 in 8 debt 500 in interest expense
  • Annual tax shield .34(500) 170
  • Present value of annual interest tax shield
  • Assume perpetual debt for simplicity
  • PV 170 / .08 2125
  • PV D(RD)(TC) / RD DTC 6250(.34) 2125

88
Case II Proposition I
  • The value of the firm increases by the present
    value of the annual interest tax shield
  • Value of a levered firm value of an unlevered
    firm PV of interest tax shield
  • Value of equity Value of the firm Value of
    debt
  • Assuming perpetual cash flows
  • VU EBIT(1-T) / RU
  • VL VU DTC

89
Case III
  • Now we add bankruptcy costs
  • As the D/E ratio increases, the probability of
    bankruptcy increases
  • This increased probability will increase the
    expected bankruptcy costs
  • At some point, the additional value of the
    interest tax shield will be offset by the
    expected bankruptcy cost
  • At this point, the value of the firm will start
    to decrease and the WACC will start to increase
    as more debt is added

90
Bankruptcy Costs
  • Direct costs
  • Legal and administrative costs
  • Ultimately cause bondholders to incur additional
    losses
  • Disincentive to debt financing
  • Financial distress
  • Significant problems in meeting debt obligations
  • Most firms that experience financial distress do
    not ultimately file for bankruptcy

91
More Bankruptcy Costs
  • Indirect bankruptcy costs
  • Larger than direct costs, but more difficult to
    measure and estimate
  • Stockholders wish to avoid a formal bankruptcy
    filing
  • Bondholders want to keep existing assets intact
    so they can at least receive that money
  • Assets lose value as management spends time
    worrying about avoiding bankruptcy instead of
    running the business
  • Also have lost sales, interrupted operations and
    loss of valuable employees

92
Conclusions
  • Case I no taxes or bankruptcy costs
  • No optimal capital structure
  • Case II corporate taxes but no bankruptcy costs
  • Optimal capital structure is 100 debt
  • Each additional dollar of debt increases the cash
    flow of the firm
  • Case III corporate taxes and bankruptcy costs
  • Optimal capital structure is part debt and part
    equity
  • Occurs where the benefit from an additional
    dollar of debt is just offset by the increase in
    expected bankruptcy costs

93
Additional Managerial Recommendations
  • The tax benefit is only important if the firm has
    a large tax liability
  • Risk of financial distress
  • The greater the risk of financial distress, the
    less debt will be optimal for the firm
  • The cost of financial distress varies across
    firms and industries and as a manager you need to
    understand the cost for your industry

94
Observed Capital Structure
  • Capital structure does differ by industries
  • Differences according to Cost of Capital 2000
    Yearbook by Ibbotson Associates, Inc.
  • Lowest levels of debt
  • Drugs with 2.75 debt
  • Computers with 6.91 debt
  • Highest levels of debt
  • Steel with 55.84 debt
  • Department stores with 50.53 debt

95
Chapter 13 Quick Quiz
  • Explain the effect of leverage on EPS and ROE
  • What is the break-even EBIT?
  • How do we determine the optimal capital
    structure?
  • What is the optimal capital structure in the
    three cases that were discussed in this chapter?
Write a Comment
User Comments (0)