ITinfrastructure in the short run: Is the present wireless Panacea hype a potential threat to the ba

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IT-infrastructure in the short runIs the
present wireless Panacea (hype) a potential
threat to the basic needs of a modern society?

• KEDKE presentation 1-2 April, 2008
• Bent Dalum, Department of Business Studies,
• DRUID/IKE SEIT at Center f. TeleInFrastructure
• Aalborg University

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Cellular News 28/3-08

• As consumer demand for mobile broadband services
  reaches critical mass - telecom operators can
  expect that 50 percent of the European population
  will access the internet through broadband on
  their mobile phones by 2012, according to the
  seventh annual research report from Exane BNP
  Paribas and Arthur D. Little.

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Let me play the Advocate of the Devil for a few
moments

• Why bother about the wired infrastructure, let
  alone fibers to the home (FTTH)?
• Why not leave the IT-infrastructure issue to the
  mobile phone operators?
• Cant they fix all the problems by 3.5G (Turbo
  3G) or WiMAX (wireless ADSL)?

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Technological life cycles
The technological life cycles of the mobile
communications industry (Dalum et al. 2002)
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Convergence what 4G originally was about
(Ramjee Prasad, CTIF, 2003)
Broadcasting/Satellite Communication
Fixed phone systems/wired networks Internet
4G Communication Systems
WPANs, WLAN/WiFi IEEE 802.11x, WiMAX IEEE 802.16x,
Cellular phone systems, such as 2G, 2.5 G, 3G,
and 3.5G
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What 4G apparently will be about?

• A linear extension of the present 3G concept?
• ATT, Verizon have agreed in November 08 on the
  W-CDMA based LTE (FDD) as their 4G platform
• China Mobile is involved in LTE as the 4G
  platform as well, but with the TDD variant. At
  least in a public declaration at the annual
  Barcelona conference early 2008
• If LTE-FDD and LTE-TDD will be able to
  communicate, there will be potentially be one
  world platform?

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The present Turbo 3G hype

• 3.5G (Turbo 3G) is being rolled-out in DK
  massively during 2008
• In DK 3.6 Mbps moving towards 7.2Mbps in the not
  too distant future
• Turbo 3G The wireless Internet or wireles
  broadband, i.e. after some 7-8 years 3G can
  finally deliver the hype-dreams from 1999/2000
• Potential reaction in the general public why do
  ordinary consumers need cables/FTTH?

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• WCDMA-HSPA Key Facts 1 (GSA March 08)
• - 211 commercial WCDMA operators in 91 countries
• - WCDMA technology in use by over 72 of 293
  commercial 3G operators
• - Over 179 million WCDMA subscribers (Q4 07) 6.9
  million monthly growth in 2H 07
• - 80 million WCDMA subscriptions added in 2007
  i.e. over 81 growth
• - 185 of 211 commercial WCDMA operators launched
  HSDPA (87.6 7 out of 8)
• - 80 HSDPA operators commercially launched during
  2007 annual growth of 80

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• WCDMA-HSPA Key Facts 2 (GSA March 08)
• - Over 62 of commercial HSDPA operators support
  3.6 Mbps peak or higher
• - Over 20 of commercial HSDPA operators support
  7.2 Mbps peak or higher
• - 34 HSUPA operators commercially launched in 26
  countries
• - Over 1.1 billion GSM WCDMA-HSDPA subscribers
  in HSDPA-enabled networks

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Developing countries

• Will Turbo 3G (in the near future in faster
  variants) and WiMAX move the focus away from FTTH
  in these countries, because of enormous problems
  with laying out cables?
• WiMAX is spreading faster in developing countries
  right now.

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Victim of a kind of optical illusion?

• Compare with digital cameras and cell phones
• Whenever the cellphones increase their Megapixel
  capacity, digital cameras do as well, i.e.
  parallel shifts upwards.
• An analogy to the wireless-wirelined relation?

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If the IT-infrastructure is left unregulated to
the telecom operators i.e the market?

• The geographical periphery will probably be the
  looser without an adequate infrastructure for a
  modern society
• The geographical centers may loose, at least
  partly, as well
• The emerging turbo 3G hype will not solve the
  fundamental infrastructural problems
• but may get the role of a miracle drug.