IN PLACE OF POSTCOMMUNIST STUDIES:

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1. IN PLACE OF POST-COMMUNIST STUDIES FROM
TRANSITION TO ARRIVAL PROFESSOR RICHARD
ROSE Director, Centre for the Study of Public
Policy University of Aberdeen www.abdn.ac.uk/csp
p George Washington University 17 November
2008
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2.
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• STAGES OF TRANSFORMATION--AND ITS AFTERMATH
• 1. The prior equilibrium stable but not durable
• 2. Disruption Polity, Economy, Society,
  State
• .
• 3. Legacy an anti-modern party-state
• 4. Bottom up responses
• Coping strategies adaptation opportunities
• 5. New equilibrium A stable state is not a
  static state
• 6. Divergence between European studies and
  Post-Soviet studies

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7. RUSSIAN ASPIRATIONS
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Q. We often hear the following words. What
feelings do they evoke?
Positive
Negative
Freedom 4
Christianity 3
One and indivisible Russia 5
Glasnost (Openness) 16
Capitalism 28
Socialism 33
Perestroika 45(Restructuring)
Marxism- Leninism 37
-40 -20
0 20 40 60
80
Source Centre for the Study of Public Policy,
New Russia Barometer, 1992. Those saying
difficult to answer are not shown.
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8. OPPORTUNITY FREEDOM
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East German evaluation of policies of former
regime, Federal Republic
Social security
Freedom to say what you think
Freedom of religious worship
Source Richard Rose, Wolfgang Zapf and Wolfgang
Seifert, Germans in Comparative Perspective,
1993.
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9. ECONOMIC SHOCK TO OFFICIAL ECONOMIES
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1990 GDP
Poland Slovenia Slovakia Hungary Czech
R. Estonia Romania Bulgaria Lithuania RussiaLat
via
Source European Bank for Reconstruction and
Development, Transition Report 2001 Energy in
Transition, 2001, Table A.3.1, p. 59.
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10. ECONOMIC RECOVERY
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Gross domestic product 1990 100
1990 real GDP
Pol
Slve
Hun
Svk
Rom
Cze
Bul
Lat
Est
Lith
Source EBRD, Transition Report, 2001, 2007 2006
figures are based on estimates, 2007 figures on
forecasts.
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13. CHALLENGE TO GOVERNANCE WITHIN THE EUROPEAN
UNION
Transparency International Corruption Index
Old EU members
New EU members
10 Highest integrity
Denmark, Finland 9.4 Sweden 9.3 Netherlands
9.0 Luxembourg, United Kingdom 8.4 Austria
8.1 Germany 7.8 OLD EU 15 MEAN 7.6 Ireland
7.5 France 7.3 Belgium 7.1 Spain 6.7 Portugal
6.5 Italy 5.2 Greece 4.6
6.6 Slovenia 6.5 Estonia 5.8 (Malta) 5.3
Hungary, (Cyprus) 5.2 Czech Republic 5.0 MEAN
OF NEW EU 4.9 Slovakia 4.8 Latvia,
Lithuania 4.2 Poland 4.1 Bulgaria 3.7 Romania
1 Most corrupt
Source Transparency International, TI Corruption
Perceptions Index 2007, www.transparency.org.
Accessed 20 May 2008.
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14. DIVERGENCE OF POST-COMMUNIST STATES
New EU
Post-Soviet
Perception of Corruption Index
Sve Est
Freedom House rating
Hun
Cze
SvkLat, LitPol
Bul
Arm
Rom
Geo
Mol
Bel
Rus
Ukr
Tur
Aze, Kaz, Taj
Uzb
Kyr
Sources perception of corruption index
Transparency International, 2007 Freedom House
rating Freedom House, 2007.