ADF: Impact of HIVAIDS and Governance

1
ADF Impact of HIV/AIDS and Governance
The Epidemic and its Consequences for Africa

• by
• Prof. Alan Whiteside
• Commissioner CHGA

2
Outline of Presentation

• Understanding HIV/AIDS
• The Numbers
• Timeframe
• Impact
• Conclusions

3
HIV prevalence in adults in sub-Saharan Africa,
end 2003
2003
20 39
10 20
5 10
1 5
0 1
No data available
outside region
Source UNAIDS, 2002.
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(No Transcript)
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HIV prevalence rates among pregnant women
attending antenatal clinics in urban sites in
Cameroon 1989-2000
20.0
18.0
16.0
HIV-positive
Bamenda
14.0
12.0
Limbe
10.0
Yaounde
8.0
6.0
Garoua
4.0
2.0
0.0
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
Source National AIDS Programme, Cameroon
(1989-2000). Data compiled by the US Census
Bureau
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Epidemic Curves, HIV
7
Epidemic Curves, HIV and AIDS
Numbers
HIV
prevalence
A
2
A
1
A
AIDS
-
cumulative
B
B
1
T
T
Time
1
2
27Aug01
-
Report I
Epidemgy
Lit.
p.
27
8
Epidemic Curves, HIV, AIDS Impact
Numbers
HIV
prevalence
Impact
A
2
A
1
A
AIDS
- cumulative
B
B
1
T
T
Time
1
2
27Aug01 -Report I
Epidemgy
Lit.
p.
27
9
The Three Challenges

• Prevention
• Appropriate care and treatment
• Impact mitigation
• But remember this is a long wave epidemic

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Outline of Presentation

• Understanding HIV/AIDS
• The Numbers
• Timeframe
• Impact
• Conclusions

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All orphans and orphans due to AIDS by HIV
prevalence, Uganda, by year
Total Number
HIV Prevalence
2 million
12
1.5 million
Total Orphans
AIDS Orphans
1 million
HIV Prevalence
6
0.5 million
0
0
Year
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
12
Estimated and projected deaths 15-34, with and
without AIDS in South Africa 1980-2025
2,000
Without AIDS
With AIDS
1,600
1,200
Deaths (thousands)
800
400
0
1980-1985
1995-2000
2010-2015
1985-1990
2000-2005
2015-2020
1990-1995
2005-2010
2020-2025
Source UN Department of Economic and Social
Affairs (2002) World Population Prospects, the
2000 Revision
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Outline of Presentation

• Understanding HIV/AIDS
• The Numbers
• Timeframe
• Impact
• Conclusions

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Estimated increase in adult death rates relative
to the 1985 rates
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Mortality in Swaziland
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16
Declining life expectancy Changes in life
expectancy in selected African countries with
high and low HIV prevalence 1950-2005
Source UNAIDS, 2002. Report on the global
HIV/AIDS epidemic
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Percent of children under age 15 that are
orphansby year, region and cause, 1990-2010
Percentage of children under 15 years who are
orphaned by year, region and cause
Asia
Latin America
Sub-Saharan Africa
Source Children on the Brink, 2002
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By 2010 orphans will account for 15-25 of all
children in 12 countries in SAA
Source UNICEF
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Outline of Presentation

• Understanding HIV/AIDS
• The Numbers
• Timeframe
• Impact
• Conclusions AIDS and Governance

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By-elections in Zambia (number)source IDASA
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Non-participation by young women

Pearsons r .7
Non-registration
_
_

HIV prevalence
Level of analysis the nine provinces
22
Loss of Friends or Relatives to AIDS
(Afrobarometer)
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ADF Impact of HIV/AIDS and Governance
The Epidemic and its Consequences for Africa

• by
• Prof. Alan Whiteside
• Commissioner CHGA