PEAK OIL

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PEAK OIL
THE LONG EMERGENCY
GLOBALWARMING
ECONOMIC INSTABILITY
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Oil producers (98)
www.lastoilshock.com
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• The world has never faced a problem like this.
  Without massive mitigationthe problem will be
  pervasive and will not be temporary. Previous
  energy transitions were gradual and
  evolutionary. Oil peaking will be abrupt and
  revolutionary.
• The Hirsch ReportU.S. Department of
  EnergyFebruary 2005

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• It is quite likely that the time interval before
  the global peak occurs will be briefer than the
  period required for societies to adapt
  themselves painlessly to a different energy
  regime.
• Richard Heinberg
• Journalist Senior Fellow at the Post Carbon
  InstitutePeak EverythingWaking Up to a Century
  of Declines

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• After peaking of oil production, exports cease in
  only nine years, far faster than overall oil
  production.
• Exports decline at an accelerating rate, starting
  at about -13 and ending at about -48,
  averaging about -29 per year over the 8 years of
  decline.
• Only about 10 of the oil produced after the peak
  is ever exported!

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• Expect oil prices to be in dynamic movement.
• Conservatively, plan for US200/barrel by 2010
• Expect the fundamentals of fading supply growth
  and growing demand to push prices ever higher in
  the five-year horizon, perhaps well beyond
  US300/barrel.

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Climate Change

• Any theory explaining climate change must
  account for all known data.
• Only the theory of anthropogenic (man made)
  global warming comprehensively addresses all the
  phenomena such as melting polar ice, disappearing
  glaciers, ocean acidity, etc,
• Skeptics cherry-pick data
• Scientists analyze data to develop theories that
  are constantly tested
• The study of climate change since 1988 has been
  the single largest coordinated scientific
  endeavor in history.
• Man made global warming has been consistently
  confirmed
• The irony, of course, is that we all wish the
  skeptics were right

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• We have at most ten yearsnot ten years to
  decide upon action, but ten years to alter
  fundamentally the trajectory of global greenhouse
  gas emissions.
• James HansenDirectorGoddard Institute for
  Space Studies, NASA

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Economic Instability
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The second half of the Age of Oil now dawns and
will be marked by the decline of oil and all that
depends on it, including financial capital. It
heralds the collapse of the present financial
system, and the related political structures I
am speaking of a second Great Depression. Colin
Campbell, Ph.D. Retired Geologist BP, TexacoASPO
Conference 2003
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The world oil production peak represents an
unprecedented economic crisis that will wreak
havoc on national economies, topple governments,
alter national boundaries, provoke military
strife, and challenge the continuation of
civilized life. James Howard KunstlerThe Long
Emergency Renowned social critic
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PEAK OIL
THE LONG EMERGENCY
GLOBALWARMING
ECONOMIC INSTABILITY
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• The Long Emergency is an opportunity to pause,
  to think through our present course, and to
  adjust to a saner path for the future. We had
  best face facts we really have no choice. The
  Long Emergency is a horrible predicament. It is
  also a wonderful opportunity to do a lot better.
  Lets not squander this moment.
• Albert Bates (paraphrased)
• Dir. of the Institute for Appropriate Technology
• The Post Petroleum Survival Guide and Cookbook

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• Inherent within the challenges of peak oil and
  climate change is an extraordinary opportunity to
  reinvent, rethink and rebuild the world around
  us.
• Rob HopkinsThe Transition Handbook

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The real issue of our age is how we make a
graceful and ethical descent. David
Holmgren Co-founder of Permaculture Permaculture
Principles and PathwaysBeyond Sustainability
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• The challenge of global climate change makes a
  shift away from fossil fuels necessary for
  planetary survival.
• The impending peak in oil and gas production
  means that the transition is inevitable.
• Our only choice is whether to proactively
  undertake the transition nowor later.

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• I believe that a lower-energy, more localized
  future, in which we move from being consumers to
  being producer/consumers, where food, energy and
  other essentials are locally produced, local
  economies are strengthened and we have learned to
  live more within our means is a step towards
  something extraordinary, not a step away from
  something inherently irreplaceable.
• Rob HopkinsThe Transition Handbook

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• Local production of food, energy and goods
• Local development of currency, government and
  culture
• Reducing consumption while improving
  environmental and social conditions
• Developing an exemplary community that can be a
  working model for other communities when the
  effects of energy decline become more intense

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• The most radical thing you can do is stay
  home.
• Gary Snyder
• Renowned American Poet and environmentalist

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• Percentage of food consumed locally that was
  produced within a given radius
• Ratio of car parking space to productive land use
• Degree of engagement in practical relocalization
  work by local community
• Amount of traffic on local roads
• Number of businesses owned by local people
• Percentage of local trade carried out in local
  currency

• Proportion of the community employed locally
• Percentage of essential goods manufactured within
  a given radius
• Percentage of local building materials used in
  new housing developments
• Number of 16-year-olds able to grow 10 different
  varieties of vegetables to a given degree of
  basic competency
• Percentage of medicines prescribed locally that
  have been produced within a given radius

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• I have become fascinated by how we apply these
  principles to whole towns, whole settlements, and
  in particular, to how we design this transition
  in such a way that people will embrace it as a
  common journey, as a collective adventure, as
  something positive
• How can we design descent pathways which make
  people feel alive, positive and included in this
  process of societal transformation?
• Rob Hopkins

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It takes a lot of cheap energy to maintain the
levels of social inequality we see today, the
levels of obesity, the record levels of
indebtedness, the high levels of car use and
alienating urban landscapes. Only a culture awash
with cheap oil could become de-skilled on the
monumental scale we have. Rob Hopkins
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• The future with less oil could be preferable to
  the present, if we are able to engage with enough
  imagination and creativity sufficiently in
  advance of the peak
• Rob Hopkins

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Why Transition?

• Climate change makes this carbon reduction
  transition essential
• Peak oil makes it inevitable
• Transition initiatives make it feasible, viable
  and attractive (as far we can tell so far...)

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• A creative, engaging, playful process, wherein
  we support our communities through the loss of
  the familiar and inspire and create a new lower
  energy infrastructure which is ultimately an
  improvement on the present.

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• For all those aspects of life that this community
  needs to sustain itself and thrive, how do we
• dramatically reduce carbon emissions (in response
  to climate change)
• significantly increase resilience (in response to
  peak oil)
• greatly strengthen our local economy (in response
  to economic instability)?

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• Life with less energy is inevitable, and it is
  better to plan for it than be taken by surprise.
• We have lost the resilience to be able to cope
  with energy shocks.
• We have to act for ourselves and we have to act
  now.
• By unleashing the collective genius of the
  community we can design ways of living that are
  more enriching, satisfying and connected.

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• Our vision is a future where life is more
  socially connected, more meaningful and
  satisfying, more sustainable, and more equitable
  in a greater community of relocalized
  communities
• Where production and consumption occur closer to
  home
• Where long and fragile supply chainsnow
  vulnerable to surges in oil prices and economic
  volatilityhave been replaced by interconnected
  local networks
• Where the total amount of energy consumed by
  businesses and citizens is dramatically less than
  current unsustainable levels

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• Set up an initiating group
• Raise awareness
• Lay the foundations (partnering)
• Organize a Great Unleashing
• Form groups
• Use Open Space Technology
• Develop visible, practical projects

• Facilitate the Great Reskilling
• Build bridges to local government
• Honor the elders
• Let it go where it wants to go
• Create an Energy Descent Action Plan (EDAP)

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• ..and design its evolution from the outset!

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• Collaborate where possible
• Co-operation, not competition

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Maybe they will tell stories about what happened
in Totnes. Maybe this evening will be something
that is the beginning of one of those stories.
Dr Chris Johnstone TTT Unleashing Sept 06.
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Up and Running Arts / Food / Energy / Economics
/ Liaison with Local Government / Heart and Soul
the psychology of change / Medicine and Health
/ Housing / Education / Transport
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Totnes, the Nut Tree Capital of Britain. Tree
Planting, January 2007
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Skilling Up for Powerdown Peak Oil / Climate
Change, Permaculture Principles, Food, Energy,
Building and Housing, Woodlands, Water, Waste,
Economics, The Psychology of Change, Energy
Descent Planning
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• Cultivate positive and productive relationships.
• You may be pushing against an open door!
• Government should support, not drive.
• Collaborate on community plan.

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• Focus on the questions
• Unleash the collective genius of the community
• Any sense of control is illusory

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• Start with a vision and then backcast
• Incorporate Transition Tales
• Base it on current planning documents

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• Your EDAP should feel like a holiday brochure,
  presenting a localized, low-energy world in such
  an enticing way that anyone reading it will feel
  their life utterly bereft if they dont dedicate
  the rest of their lives towards its realization.
  
• Rob Hopkins

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• Positive visioning
• Awareness-raising as an invitation
• Helps people access good information, trusts them
  to make good decisions
• Inclusion and openness
• Enabling sharing and networking
• Building resilience, cutting carbon emissions
• Deeply rooted in principles and ethics of
  Permaculture
• Transition is both Inner and Outer
• Subsidiarity decision-making at the appropriate
  level
• Openness for peer-to-peer feedback
• Transition makes sense the solution is scalable
• A viral modeleasy to replicate

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• The Transition process is one of acting as a
  catalyst, unlocking the collective genius and
  enthusiasm of the community, and harnessing the
  untapped power of engaged optimism.
• Transition Town Totnes

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• As a species, well be transitioning to a lower
  energy future whether we want to or not. Far
  better to ride that wave rather than getting
  engulfed by it.
• Transition Town Lewes

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• The Transition movement is the most exciting,
  most hopeful, most inspirational movement
  happening in Britain today.
• Caroline LucasEuropean Parliament

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• The Transition movement has harnessed the
  collective call to action and is a glue that is
  mending the torn fabric of our communities.
• Cliona OConaillCarbon Descent

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http//transitionus.ning.com/ http//transitioncol
orado.ning.com/
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• Those who are involved in Transition Initiatives
  are part of one of the biggest and most important
  research projects underway anywhere in the world.
  You are catalyzing those around you to ask the
  questions that government still finds it very
  hard to ask, but that are essential to our
  collective survival. You are acknowledging that
  it is with us that real change begins, and that
  it is up to us whether we accept this
  responsibility or shy away from it.
• Rob Hopkins

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• In the face of almost certain uncertainty, our
  job is to rise to the occasion, to evolvein our
  thinking, our perspectives, and in our
  commitment to make this transition as positive as
  possible. We will probably become some new kind
  of human at the end of it allit is that big and
  that important.
• John L. Petersen
• President and Founder, The Arlington Institute A
  Vision for 2012 Planning for Extraordinary
  Change

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• All things are possible once enough human beings
  realize that
• everything is at stake.
• Norman Cousins
• Journalist, Author World Peace Advocate

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Resources

• Transition US (http//www.transitionus.org/)
• Official US transition website
• Transition Culture (http//transitionculture.org/)
  
• Rob Hopkins Transition website
• Transition Towns WIKI
• http//transitiontowns.org/Newburyport-MA-USA
• A central repository for Transition information.
• TRANSITION TOWNS An Interview with Rob Hopkins
• http//www.youtube.com/watch?vrQF09NG00V8
• A 50min interview with the founder of the
  transition movement.
• Transition Newburyport (ning site)
• http//transitionmassachusetts.ning.com/group/newb
  uryport
• Social network site
• Peak Moment
• http//www.youtube.com/user/peakmoment
• Community responses to a changing energy future.
  135 half hour interviews.

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1st Annual Earth Expo.

• Join Transition Newburyport at the 1st Annual
  Earth Expo.
• Organized by the Greater Newburyport
  Eco-Collaborative.
• Maudslay State Park.
• Sunday April 26th
• 11 3 PM

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Please Join Transition Newburyport for a
screening of the End of Suburbia
Where Newburyport Library. When
May 13th at 7 PM
The End of Suburbia explores the American Way of
Life and its prospects as the planet approaches a
critical era, as global demand for fossil fuels
begins to outstrip supply. What does Peak Oil
mean for North America?