Deploying forces further and faster than ever before

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Deploying forces further and faster than ever
before
Mr. A.L. M. van Oudheusden NATO Civil Aviation
Planning Committee Chairman ACT Expeditionary
Operations Conference, NCD, Rome, 17-18 June
2008
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• Marc van Oudheusden
• Chairman of NATO-CAPC
• Ministry of Transport in The Netherlands
• Aviation Safety and Security Branch
• Field of work
• Crisis management
• Aviation and communicable diseases (pandemic)
• Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI)
• Automatic border control
• Safety Management Systems in Aviation

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The civilian experts in the PBCsPlanning Boards
and Committees
Communications
Food and Agriculture
Medical
Air Transport
Civil Protection
8 PBC Areas
Sea Transport
Industrial Planning

Surface Transport
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The civilian experts in the PBCsPlanning Boards
and Committees
HIGH LEVEL PORTS ROAD RAIL INTERMODAL INLAND-
WATERWAYS CONTAINERS
HIGH LEVEL FLIGHT OPERATIONS CARGO PASSENGERS AIRP
ORT OPERATIONS INSURANCE HELICOPTER BROKERS AEROME
DICAL EVACUATION AVIATION LEGAL
HIGH LEVEL RO/RO BREAK BULK CONTAINER TANKER FERRY
INSURANCE
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Ongoing work Common transport initiatives

• Proposed combined sea/air and land options for
• support to Afghanistan
• Planning training events as 2009 NATO Transport
  
• Seminar and annual modal training events
• Provided commercial information to military on
• prices estimates/asset availability for all
  modes
• Supporting military long-term planning
• Monitoring new trends in the commercial
  industry
• and
• Supported Hurricane Katrina and Pakistan relief
  in
• 2005.

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Ongoing work Air

• Conducted a civilian airport study for
  military
• Reviewed ground support package for Sarajevo
• airport for military
• Developing annual report on legislative changes
  
• effecting civil aviation
• Bringing civil aviation aspects with military
• implications to recent meetings as the
• A400M (Airbus), SAFA Programme (GE), and the
• future plans of the Antonov Design Bureau and
  Boeing
• Studying Medical Air Evacuation issues using
  strategic
• commercial aircraft
• Assisting military with civil aircraft safety
  questions.
• Defensive Aids on Aircraft

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Civil Aviation in 20 years from now! (Civil)
Airports (Civil) Aircraft (Civil) ATC Civil
Aircraft Market Assessment 7 february 2008,
EAPC(CAPC)N(2008)0008
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Future by 4 scenarios
1. Strong economic growth in an increasingly
globalised world, with technology used
succesfully to mitigate the effects of chalenges
such as the environment and security issues
2. Moderate economic growth and little change
from the status quo, that is trends
continue as currently observed 3. Strong
economic growth but with stronger regulation to
adress growing environmental challenges
for aviation. Higher cost of travel, lower
demand. 4. World with increasing tensions
between regions, with knock on effects,
reduced trade and less long haul travel
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• Who has an opinion, and publishes about
• the future in aviation?
• Governments
• International Organizations
• Society
• Airlines (IATA)
• Airports (ACI)
• Eurocontrol (ATM)
• Manufacturers

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• Some things can be predicted as obvious general
  trends
• Increase of air traffic between 1.7 and 2.1 times
  the 2005 figures in Europe alone
• Between 2012 and 2025 growth will slow down, due
  to constraints in airports
• Airport operations will grow but face
  constraints.
• (size 831 in 2025)
• Long haul flights will increase the fastest
  globally
• Strong economic growth in the Middle East, Far
  East, also North Africa, Former CIS countries

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• Some things can be predicted
• as obvious general trends (2)
• More demand than capacity
• Average aircraft size will grow (A380),
• more fuel efficient
• High Speed trains
• Mergers (6-7 globally operating Companies),
  minimum 2 in Europe (Sky team and Star)
• Low Cost (pressure by increasing fuel prices)
• Combi freighter will be outphased full freighter
  with large networks
• Open market (skies) will increase in importance,
  national dimension will remain significant

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• Some things can be predicted
• as obvious general trends (3)
• Major developments in production of engines is
  expected break through of fuel
• Aerodynamic aspects (blended wing body)
• Flying without pilots (????)

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Airports

• Airports
• Will adapt to new Aircraft requirements
• Will operate more with one concept (e.g.
  gate-to-gate)
• Will adapt to more passengers (double??)
• (biometric/automated border controls)
• Will adapt to new environmental issues
• Will adapt to new other requirements
• (security, slots, emission trade)
• 5. Capacity issue will be eminent in the future

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Air Traffic Control

• Air Traffic Control
• Steady increase of flights (at least double)
• Increasing Security concerns and demands
• Increasing requirements in Legislation
  (2096/2005)
• Increase in Civil-Military Cooperation, including
  initiatives as Single European Skies
• SES will result in 300 capacity increase
• DGMAC (Eurocontrol) since 2006

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Civil Aircraft

• Passengers
• Cargo

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Civil Freighter Aircraft

• Increase in numbers
• 2007 1789
• 2025 3063
• Retired in 2025 1209
• Added in 2025 2983

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Civil Aircraft

• Main developments
• Boeing and airbus broke all sale records in 2007
  Boeing leads in white body, Airbus in single
  aisle. Airbus produces 453 new aircraft, Boeing
  441. Production problems with the Airbus 380 are
  widely known.
• Boeing
• Boeing 787-3 (Dreamliner) 330 pax in service
  in 2010
• Boeing 747 most common aircraft for long haul
• Airbus
• By 2011, 71 Airports will be able to accommodate
  the A380
• A380 can accommodate 555 pax. NO freighter
  version, discussion postponed untill at least
  2015
• A400M is not civilian registred, teherfor not
  adressed. However, also production problems seem
  likely.

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Aircraft
Antonov 25th anniversary in 2007. Just over 20
are operational. Expectation is that in 2025
almost NO Antonovs will be available anylonger.
Modifications are made to the existing aircraft,
production of new ones is until this moment
uncertain and unlikely to happen. AN 70 has been
tested and almost certified however no funds and
interest, and no orders make production unlikely
to happen. Ilyushin IL 76 was renewed, problems
with noise compliance seem to be under certain
conditions resolved. Also this aircraft unlikely
to be there in 2025 timeframe.
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General notions

• 20 years is a long period of time
• Changing passenger aircraft into freighter
  aircraft is likely to happen with older aircraft,
  but will NOT solve the outsize cargo shortfall.
• The raise in fuel price will most likely result
  is usage of newer more fuel efficient aircraft,
  there accelerating he phasing out of older
  aircraft.
• Self supporting units, like Hercules, Ilyushin
  and Antonov will disappear, this must be taken
  into account in the planning fase
• Price of aluminium goes up, which makes it more
  interesting to destroy old aircraft bodies

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General notions

• Since many older aircraft will disappear in the
  future, only high-loader aircraft remain,
  complicating use of these type of aircraft into
  theatre.
• Military Airports are less suitable for handling
  the B747, which is the most likely aircraft to be
  available on the spot market in 20 years time.
• SALIS concentrates on AN124, whereas in many
  cases the use of MD11, A330F, B747, would have
  been considerably cheaper.
• Greater efficiency in the SAFA system results in
  reluctance for some operators. Expansion of EU to
  countries like Moldavia and Bulgaria, with the
  necessary compliance of international safety
  regulations. Net is closing. Same goes for noise
  compliance.

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Conclusions
Conclusions 1. Aviation will grow
considerably 2. Availability of scheduled
airlines for military operations under pressure,
due to high efficiency 3. Older type of aircraft
on the ad-hoc market will disappear. Newer
aircraft will be in service, meaning higher
operational costs, insurance, etc. 4. Hub spoke
concept will become of increasing importance 5.
Safe hubs will be of extreme importance in the
future. Use of larger hubs outside theatre of
perations will increase planning options. 6. 7.
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Recommendations
Recommendations 1. Using airlift capabilities
with more efficiency use commercial civil
experience in this respect 2. Honest evaluation
of projects like SALIS 3. Problem of diplo
clearances should be solved 4. Practice in real
time exercise availability of civil airlift
capacities 5. Be prepared to face crew problem,
as well as incorporate crew changes and handling
of aircraft into the planning process, due to the
changing nature of the aircraft available
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Recommendations
Recommendations
6. Use B 747 for planning purposes, since it
will be the aircraft in 20 years time most
likely to be dealt with. 7. Protective aids
become increasingly important. New legislations
is on its way
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Questions?