Statistical predictions : links between crime scenes and behaviors

1
Statistical predictions links between crime
scenes and behaviors

• From intuitive to scientific predictions
• Establishing reliable typologies
• Ex organised versus disorganised
• sadistic versus opportunistic
• missionary versus visionary
• Linking typology to past behaviors
• Are certain types more prone to commit specific
  crimes?
• Ex sadistic has the least prior convictions
  for violence
• organised served in the armed forces
  (aggression problems)
• Major goal prioritise searches

2
Facet theory and smallest space analysis
Murder A Murder B Murder C Multiple
weapons 1 1 2 Sexual humiliation 1 1 2 Night-
time 2 1 2 Victim left naked 1 1 2
Multiple Sexual Night-time weapons
Humiliation Sexual humiliation 3 Night-time
2 2 Victim left naked 3 3 2
See book pp. 210-215
3
Facet theory and smallest space analysis

• Aggression

• Sadism

Disguise Takes time Sodomy
Multiple violence
Gratuitous violence
Humiliation
Fellatio
Torture
Vaginal penetration
Element of surprise
Clothing removed
Inquisitive
Bondage
Kisses
Blindfold
Theft
Apologises
Reassures victim

• Criminality

• Intimacy

See book, p.208
4
Facet theory and smallest space analysis
Statistical predictions of crimes sharing
different characteristics some methods may help
identify the probability of crimes being
committed by the same individuals. Crime scenes
characteristics can then be related to offenders
behaviors and/or personality.
Violence to genitals
Victims naked
bindings
No weapon used
Vaginal rape
Alcohol involved
Night time used
Knife used
See book pp. 210-215
5
THE HOLMES TYPOLOGY

• ACT-FOCUSED (quick kill)
• 1 - THE VISIONARY - hears voices or sees visions
  that tell him to kill (psychotic), the voices
  tend to be either God or the devil, legitimating
  the violence.
• 2- THE MISSIONARY - goes on hunting "missions" to
  eradicate a group of people (prostitutes, Jews,
  etc.) from face of earth, seems like "fine young
  man" to neighbors.
• PROCESS-FOCUSED (slow kill)
• 3 - THE COMFORT-ORIENTED HEDONIST - takes
  pleasure from killing, but also gets some profit
  or personal gain from it. (mostly women)
• 4 - THE LUST-ORIENTED HEDONIST - associates
  sexual pleasure with murder, sex while killing
  and necrophilia are eroticized experiences.
• 5 - THE THRILL-ORIENTED HEDONIST - gets a "rush"
  or "high" from killing, an elixir of thrills,
  excitement, and euphoria at victim's final
  anguish.
• 6 - THE POWER/CONTROL FREAK - takes pleasure from
  manipulation and domination (sociopath),
  experiences a "rush" or "high" from victim's
  misery.

6
THE KELLEHER TYPOLOGY

• Acting alone
• Black Widow - systematically kills multiple
  spouses, partners, or other family members (15)
• Angel of Death - systematically kills people who
  are in her care for some form of medical
  attention.
• Sexual Predator - systematically kills others in
  clear acts of sexual homicide.
• Revenge - systematically kills out of hate or
  jealousy.
• Profit from Crime - systematically kills for
  profit or in course of committing another crime.

• Acting in partnership
• Team Killer - kills or participates in the
  killing of others in conjunction with at least
  one other.
• Question of Sanity - kills in apparent random
  manner and later judged to be insane.
• Unexplained - kills for reasons that are totally
  inexplicable or for unclear motives.
• Unsolved - a pattern of unsolved killings that
  may be attributed to a woman (or women).

7
THE KELLEHER TYPOLOGY (cond)

• Acting alone
• Killers of this type are often mature, careful,
  deliberate, socially adept, and highly organized.
  
• They usually attack victims in their home or
  place of work.
• They tend to favor a specific weapon, like
  poison, lethal injection, or suffocations.

• Acting in partnership
• Killers of this type tend to be younger,
  aggressive, vicious in their attack, sometimes
  disorganized, and usually unable to carefully
  plan.
• They usually attack victims in diverse locations.
  
• They tend to use guns, knifes, or torture.

8
Conclusions

• More intuitive than scientific
• Early stages of development
• Error rate difficult to evaluate
• Usefulness depends on questions asked
• Ex are these crimes linked?
• who did it?
• how to provoke the offender?
• how to interview the suspects?
• Promising field for psychological research