How important are issues in influencing voting behaviour

1
What are issues? Can you list some of the most
important ones which concern UK political parties
today?
2
Popular issues

• NHS
• Education
• Employment
• Taxes
• EU
• Law order

• Defence
• Foreign policy
• Security
• Immigration
• Pensions
• Council tax

3
How important are issues in influencing voting
behaviour?

• The Rational Choice model of voting behaviour

4
? Your task

• Read Roberts, p.100, and in your own words
  identify the key features of the Rational choice
  model

5
What is the Rational choice theory of voting
behaviour?

• Voters decisions based on policies
• Supermarket or consumer choice view of voting
• Stresses importance of instrumental (rational
  choice) rather than emotional (e.g. party
  identification) voting
• Explains electoral volatility

6
? Your task

• Complete a table similar to the one below and
  rank the issues in order of importance for voters
  for each party.
• Decide which will be the most important issues
  for people voting in the next general election.

7
Can you account for the changing importance of
these issues at different times?
8
? Your task
Notes

• Read Roberts p.100-101 and construct a scales
  chart. On one side list evidence to show issue
  based voting is important in British politics and
  on the other that it isnt.

9
How do perceptions of party confidence influence
the way we vote?

• Rational choice model

10
? Your task

• Work in pairs. Student A is going to become an
  expert on the prospective model of party
  competence and student B the retrospective model.
  Construct a table similar to the one below and
  write down the key characteristics of your model.
  Then teach (i.e. dont dictate or copy) your
  partner about the key characteristics.

11
Prospective model

• People vote for party most likely to raise
  standard of living
• Sociology of aspirations (S.Hall)
• 1992 GE, Cons successfully portrayed Labour as
  party of high taxation through use of fear
  factor

1997 Conservative poster, unsuccessfully trying
to reignite fears of higher taxation under
Labour. Why do you think the Tories were
unsuccessful this time?
12
Retrospective model

• Voters perceptions of past party records
• Black Wednesday
• 1997 opinion poll, ¾ voters felt standard of
  living declined since 1992
• 2001 GE, Labour polled better than Cons on
  retrospective prospective perceptions

13
? Your task

• Read p.103-4 in Roberts and answer these
  questions
• What evidence is there that perceptions of party
  leadership can influence voters decisions?
• Why has the influence of party leadership grown
  in recent years?
• What are the problems in assessing the influence?

14
Party leadership

• Parties change leader on average every 6-7 years
  evidence of importance of party leadership
• Exceptions, e.g. Margaret Thatcher, 15 years

U-turn if you want to. This lady is not for
turning!
15
Growing importance of party leadership

• Growing influence of media strengthens the
  importance of positive perceptions of party
  leadership
• Popularity of party leadership often reflects
  popularity of party as whole, e.g. Kinnock Blair

16
Problems in assessing influence

• Contradictory opinion polls, e.g., Blair
  frequently criticised for being arrogant and
  autocratic, but MORI 2001 opinion poll showed
  confidence in his leadership at 47 (compared
  with 13 for William Hague)
• Support for a leader may be based on which leader
  voters least disliked (rather than most liked)
• Problems separating attitudes towards leaders
  from parties as a whole

Hagues infamous baseball cap from 2001 G.E.
campaign
17
? Your task

• Read Item A, p.104 in Roberts. What can this
  episode tell us about the importance of issue
  based voting in British politics?

18
? Your task
George Galloway
Martin Bell

• Work in pairs. One student read about Martin Bell
  and the other about George Galloway. Report back
  to your partner the following information
• Who were these 2 politicians?
• What seats did they stand for?
• What issues did they campaign on?
• Why were they so successful?
• How might issue-based voting have had a negative
  effect on their political careers?

Examples
19
? Plenary

• How accurate is the rational choice model of
  voting behaviour? Write a shirt judgement
  paragraph summarising your thoughts. Use precise
  examples to illustrate your ideas, wherever
  possible.