AFET YNETIMI

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Istanbul Seismic Risk Mitigation and Emergency
Preparedness Project (ISMEP)
Istanbul Project Coordination Unit (IPCU) Kazim
Gökhan ELGIN Director March 20, 2006
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DEVELOPMENT AND DISASTER

• THROUGHOUT THE WORLD
• The natural disasters caused loss of 1.5 million
  lives in the last 20 years.
• While 15 of the population exposed to risk is in
  the developed countries, 1.8 loss of life occur
  in these countries.
• 94 of natural disasters take place in developing
  countries.
• 98 of the population affected from natural
  disasters live in these countries.

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DEVELOPMENT AND DISASTERcontinue

• THROUGHOUT THE WORLD
• Annual GDP loss in developing countries is
  between 2-15.
• The economic loss in developing countries is 20
  times as much as developed countries.
• The avarage annual loss resulting from disasters
  in 1990s USD 63 billion.
• The annual loss resulting from disasters in 2050
  is estimated as USD 300 billion.

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TURKEY AND NATURAL DISASTERS

• Earthquakes
• Turkey is one of the most active regions in the
  world in terms of seismicity.
• 70 of the population live in seismically active
  areas.
• 66 of the country is located on the active fault
  line.
• 64 of total disaster losses and 75 of damaged
  buildings in the last century are due to
  earthquakes.
• Floods
• Mainly take place in coastal area and exacerbated
  by deforestration, erosion and uncontrolled
  development.
• 15 of total disaster losses are due to floods.
• Avarage annual loss is over USD 100 million.
• Landslides
• 25 of country territory is exposed to
  landslides.
• 11 of total population is located within this
  area.
• 16 of total disaster losses are due to
  landslides.

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Earthquake Toll in Turkey

• The estimated avarage annual direct economic loss
  in the last
• decade is over USD 1 billion.
• Frequency of earthquakes over 5.5 M per annum
  0.76
• (6th in the world)
• Annual loss of life due to disasters 950
• (3rd in the world)
• Loss of life per capita (million) 15,58
• (4th in the world)
• Avarage population exposed to disasters per
  annum 2.745.757
• (8th in the world)
• Loss of life per capita exposed to disasters
  (million) 346
• (4th in the world)

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Lessons from 1999 Marmara Earthquake

• COMMUNICATION
• Interruption in communication
• Phone lines being out of service in initial hours

• RESPONSE
• Insufficiency in organization and coordination
• Chaotic environment
• Bureaucracy problems faced in official
  procedures and permission
• Inefficiency in search and rescue activities at
  night due to poor illumination
• Insufficiency in logistic support
• Complexity caused by amateur rescue groups and
  volunteers lacking the
• necessary health and building structure
  information

• DAMAGE
• More than 77,000 heavily damaged buildings
• Damage in public buildings
• Damaged and unutilized infrastructure
• Complexity in building damage assesments

• ECONOMIC LOSSES
• USD 10-15 billion primary economic loss
• 5-7 of Turkeys GNP

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Istanbul

• 13-14 million people, 20 of Turkeys population,
  live in Istanbul. More than 40 of Turkish GNP is
  generated in the region.
• Comparable seismic risk degree with San
  Francisco, Los Angeles and Tokyo cities
• Probability of occurence of a large earthquake
  in next 30 years is greater than 50.
• Probability of occurence of a large earthquake
  in next 10 years is greater than 20.
• Impacts after a probable 7.5 Richter scale
  earthquake in Istanbul
• Approximately 70.000 dead people,120.000
  injured-heavily injured people, 400.000 lightly
  injured people
• direct economic loss 30 billion US

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Disaster Preparedness of Istanbul Under the
Principles of Comprehensive Disaster Management
Emergency Management
Legal Issues
Infrastructure/ Lifelines
Training
Cultural Heritage/ Historical Monum.
Superstructure / Buildings
Communication Systems
Public Awareness
Development Law

• Ministry of Culture and Tourism
• Gen. Dir. of Foundations
• Metropollitan Mun.
• Turkish Grand National Assembly
• Private Property

Public Buildings

• Airports, harbors
• Highways, bridges
• Natural gas
• Electricity
• Water
• Sewage
• Others

Disaster Insurance
Emergency Mng. Info. Sys.
Decision makers
Residential/ Commercial Buildings
Regulation on Soil Improvement
Emergency Response Capacity
Public Officials
Retrofitting Regulation
Industrial Estates / Factories
Private Sector
Condominium Law

• Inventory
• Prioritization
• Multi-hazard risk assesment
• Cooperation (historians, architects,
  international practices, int. Agreements..)
• Pilot Studies

Transfer of Development Rights
Building Inspection Law

• Research
• Socio-economic
• Willingness of
• participation
• Environmental
• impact

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Disaster Preparedness of Istanbul Under the
Principles of Comprehensive Disaster Management
Emergency Management
Legal Issues
Infrastructure /Lifelines
Training
Cultural Heritage/ Historical Monum.
Superstructure / Buildings
Public Buildings
Residential / Commercial Buildings
Industrial Facilities / Factories
Microzonation

• Organized Industrial
• Region
• Industrial Zones
• Big industrial
• factories
• Refineries
• LPG storage stations
• LPG and oil stations
• causing danger in city
• center
• Industrial Facilities to be
• relocated to suburbs acc. to
• Land Use Plan
• (1/5.000)

• Hospitals
• Schools / universities
• Student Dormitories
• Fire-brigades
• Police
• Other

Physical Planning
Building Assesment
Retrofitting/ Urban Regeneration
Prioritization
Reconstruction

• Assesment
• Retrofitting
• Reconstruction

• Density Control
• New Settlement Areas
• Satellite cities

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Istanbul Seismic Risk Mitigation and Emergency
Preparedness Project (ISMEP)

• Country / Region Turkey / Istanbul
• Project Duration 5 Years
• Implementation Istanbul Special Provincial
  Administration / Istanbul Project Coordination
  Unit (IPCU)
• Finance World Bank
• Loan Amount USD 400 million (310 million
  Euro)

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GOALS

• Strengthening institutional and technical
  capacity of emergency management.
• Increasing emergency preparedness and response
  awareness.
• Retrofitting/Reconstruction of priority public
  buildings.
• Vulnerability inventory and project design for
  cultural and historical heritage assets.
• Taking supportive measures for the efficient
  implementation of development law and building
  codes.

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ISMEP Istanbul Seismic Risk Mitigation and
Emergency Preparedness Project
Enhancing Emergecy Preparedness
Enforcement of Building Codes
Seismic Risk Mitigation for Priority Public
Facilities
Emergency Communication Sys.
Retrofitting/Reconstruction of Priority Public
Facilities
Public Awareness
US 0,23 million
US 32,84 million
US 305,62 million
Emergency Management Inf. Sys.
Development of The Regulatory Framework
Risk Assessment for Lifelines and Vital
Infrastructure
US 7,66 million
US 0,56 million
US 2,45 million
Upgrading the Emer. Res. Cap. in the Istanbul
Metro. Region
Voluntary Accreditation and Training of Engineers
Risk Assessment of Historical Cultural
Heritage Buildings
US 14,64 million
US 1,20 million
US 2,83 million
Strengthening the Institutional Capacity of AYM
Streamlining of Build. Permits Issuance Procedures
US 9,77 million
US 5,55 million
Public Awar. and Neighborhood Community Volunteers
US 8,45 million
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PRIORITIZATION OF PUBLIC BUILDINGS IN ISTANBUL

• Approximately 2500 public buildings prioritized,
• Criteria set for each sector,
• Hospitals
• Schools
• Administrative Buildings
• Social Service Buildings
• Dormitories

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Prioritization Criteria for Schools
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PRIORITIZATION CRITERIA

• Accessibility during disaster
• Road priority

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Prioritization Criteria

• Distance from fault line

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Prioritization Criteria

• Importance of Schools in Disaster Management Plan
• The buildings in Disaster Management Plans
• Special features like capacity, open space,
  accessibility etc.

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Prioritized Public Buildings
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Seismic Risk Mitigation for Priority Public
Buildings

• Vulnerability Assessment

Retrofitting
Reconstruction
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No. Of Buildings to be retrofitted
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ISMEP PROJECT

• Contributions of ISMEP Project
• Prevention of potential loss of life.
• Mitigation of social, economic and financial
  effects of a possible earthquake.
• Formation of a model for the design and
  implementation of other projects and activities
  within the field of disaster management.
• Creation of a model to improve emergency
  management capacities of local governments.

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Let us all be pro-active, strategic,
comprehensive try to prevent or mitigate
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Thank you...