The Future of Food Systems: Global to Local

1
The Future of Food SystemsGlobal to Local
Molly D. Anderson Food Systems Integrity Arlington
, Massachusetts
University of Massachusetts Amherst February
26, 2007
2
Food of the future?
3
Overview

• Conceptualizing sustainability in food systems
• Global forces affecting food systems
• - environmental
• - sociodemographic
• Emerging alternatives
• - structural changes in the global food system
• - local/regional food systems
• - ecolabeling and other certification schemes
• - fair food
• How to capture the potential benefits of these
  alternatives

4
Conceptualizing sustainability

• Sustainable food systems as the intersection of
  3 systems

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Conceptualizing sustainability

• 1. What is being sustained? For whom?
• 2. Implied trade-offs
• Implicit equality and comparability of domains

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Conceptualizing sustainability

• 2 Sustainable food systems as nested goals

From Definitions of sustainable livelihoods.
Stockholm Environmental Institutehttp//www.york.
ac.uk/inst/sei/sustainability/
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Conceptualizing sustainability
Young people enteringfarming food system
careers
Healthy, well-fed children
Diverse food businesses
Workinglandscapes
Biodiversity
Thriving family farms
Clean groundwater
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Conceptualizing sustainability
3 Sustainability as the ability to remain
within ecological limits
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Conceptualizing sustainability

• Resilience width of the bowl (ability to
  withstand disturbance)
• Adaptive capacity height of the bowl (ability
  to recover from disturbance)
• Both are influenced more by social than
  technological factors.

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Forces affecting the global food systemClimate
change
Increases in Carbon Dioxide, Methane Nitrous
Oxide in the Atmosphere Source 4th IPCC
Assessment,Summary for Decision Makers
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Forces affecting the global food systemClimate
change
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Forces affecting the global food systemClimate
change
Changes in Temperature, Sea Level, and
Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover 1961-1990 Source
IPCC 4th Assessment Summary for Decision Makers
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Forces affecting the global food systemClimate
change
Source National Hurricane Center, NOAA
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Forces affecting the global food systemClimate
change
Source Titus, J.G. and C. Richman. 2000. Maps of
Lands Vulnerable to Sea Level Rise Modeled
Elevations Along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf
Coasts. Climate Research.
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Forces affecting the global food systemClimate
change
Projected Changes in Vegetation TypesSource US
Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC
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Forces affecting the global food systemPolitical
intelligence
Source ETC Group www.etcgroup.org
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Forces affecting the global food system Water
scarcity
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Forces affecting the global food systemLoss of
biodiversity
Source Dirzo, R. and P.H. Raven. 2003. Global
state of biodiversityand loss. Ann. Rev.
Environ. Resources 28 137-167.
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Forces affecting the global food systemPeak Oil
Projection Source 2006-2007 Bakhitari,
A.M.S. 2007-2009 Simmons, M.R. After
2007 Skrebowski, C. 2008 Campbell /
ASPO Before 2009 Deffeyes, K.S. Before
2010 Goodstein, D. After 2010 World Energy
Council 2010-2020 Laherrere, J. 2016 EIA
nominal case After 2020 CERA 2025 or
later Shell -------------------------------------
--------------------------- No visible
peak Lynch, M.C.
2000
2010
2020
2030
SAIC / MISI
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Forces affecting the global food systemNew
infectious diseases
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Forces affecting the global food
systemUrbanization
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Forces affecting the global food
systemPopulation growth and technological change
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How well is the food system feeding people?
US Household Food Security, 2005
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How well is the food system feeding people?
Proportion of people living with insufficient
food 1990-92, 1995-97 2001-03 () Source UN
Millennium DevelopmentGoals Report 2006
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How well is the food system feeding people?
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How well is the food system feeding people?
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Producers of commodity crops other
undifferentiated goods--under contract to TNCs
Producers internalizing all environmental/social
costs
globally-integrated
I
IV
Vertically-integrated packing,processing
distribution facilities
Certified processing distribution facilities
Vertically-integrated supermarkets
Diverse retail outlets
COMMODITIES OTHERUNDIFFERENTIATED GOODS -
SOURCED TRANSNATIONALLY
TRIPLE-BOTTOM-LINE ANIMAL WELFARECERTIFIED
GOODS
responsive tomultifunctional signals
responsive only to economic signals
COMMODITIES OTHER UNDIFFERENTIATED GOODS -
SOURCED LOCALLY REGIONALLY
GOODS DIFFERENTIATED BYGEOGRAPHIC INDICATORS
Independent grocers
Farmers markets, CSAs, other direct marketing
Regional packing, processing distribution
units
Regional terminalmarkets
Local processing facilities
Producers of commodity crops other
undifferentiated goods --- independent
II
III
Local environmentallyresponsible producers
fragmented
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Structural changes in the food system
Source J-PGrievink, Cap Gemini, OECD 2003 from
Tim Lang
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Structural changes in the food system
Pork Packers CR4 59 1. Smithfield 2. Tyson
(IBP Inc.) 3. ConAgra (Swift) 4. Cargill
(Excel)

• Broilers CR4 50
• Tyson Foods
• Gold Kist
• 3. Pilgrims Pride
• 4. ConAgra

• Beef Packers CR481
• 1. Tyson (IBP Inc.)
• 2. Cargill (Excel)
• 3. Swift Co (ConAgra)
• 4. Farmland National Beef

Concentration in the Protein Industry
Source Hendrickson, Mary. 2005. An Overview of
Concentration in the Food System. (Go to
Consolidation in the Food System under
Publications at www.foodcircles.missouri.edu)
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Structural changes in the food system
Terminal Grain Handling Facilities CR4 60 1.
Cargill 2. Cenex Harvest States 3. ADM 4.
General Mills
Exporters? Cargill ADM Zen-Noh Export 81 of US
corn and 65 of US soybeans
Bunge, ADM Cargillhave 64 of soybean oil
processing market share in Brazil.
Source Hendrickson, Mary. 2005. An Overview of
Concentration in the Food System. (Go to
Consolidation in the Food System under
Publications at www.foodcircles.missouri.edu )
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Structural changes in the food systemdont
necessarily provide higher value
Source ETC Group www.etcgroup.org
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Producers of commodity crops other
undifferentiated goods--under contract to TNCs
Producers internalizing all environmental/social
costs
globally-integrated
I
IV
Vertically-integrated packing,processing
distribution facilities
Certified processing distribution facilities
Vertically-integrated supermarkets
Diverse retail outlets
COMMODITIES OTHERUNDIFFERENTIATED GOODS -
SOURCED TRANSNATIONALLY
TRIPLE-BOTTOM-LINE ANIMAL WELFARECERTIFIED
GOODS
responsive tomultifunctional signals
responsive only to economic signals
COMMODITIES OTHER UNDIFFERENTIATED GOODS -
SOURCED LOCALLY REGIONALLY
GOODS DIFFERENTIATED BYGEOGRAPHIC INDICATORS
Independent grocers
Farmers markets, CSAs, other direct marketing
Regional packing, processing distribution
units
Regional terminalmarkets
Local processing facilities
Producers of commodity crops other
undifferentiated goods --- independent
II
III
Local environmentallyresponsible producers
fragmented
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Emerging food system alternativesLocal
regional food systems

• In Iowa
• If consumers increased their fruit and vegetable
  purchases from local sources by 10, total net
  impact of these additional local purchases would
  be 302.4 million in new industrial output,
  112.6 million in labor income, and 4,094 new
  jobs (Pirog, Rich, Timothy Van Pelt, Kamyar
  Enshayan, and Ellen Cook. 2001. Food, Fuel and
  Freeways An Iowa Perspective on How Far Food
  Travels, Fuel Usage, and Greenhouse Gas
  Emissions. Leopold Center for Sustainable
  Agriculture. )
• In Michigan
• Doubling or tripling the amount of fresh produce
  that farmers sell in fresh produce markets could
  generate up to 1,889 new jobs across the state
  and 187 million in new personal income
  (Cantrell, Patty, David Conner, George Erickcek
  and Michael W. Hamm. 2006. Eat Fresh and Grow
  Jobs, Michigan. Michigan Land Use Institute and
  the CS Mott Group. )

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Emerging food system alternativesLocal
regional food systems

• In Iowa
• Producing and transporting 10 more of the
  produce in an Iowa-based food system would result
  in savings ranging from 280,000 to 346,000
  gallons of fuel (depending on the production
  system and truck type), and a reduction in carbon
  dioxide emissions by 6.7 to 7.9 million pounds
  (R. Pirog et al., 2001).

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Emerging food system alternativesPotential
advantages of local regional food systems

• improve economic viability of communities and
  farmers
• help kids and adults understand where their food
  comes from and how its raised
• bring culturally appropriate foods to customers
• reduce greenhouse gas emissions
• build public support for agriculture
• improve public health and nutrition
• promote greater security and less vulnerability
  to disruption in food supplies

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Emerging food system alternativesEco-labeling
and certification
Source Consumers Union (from presentation by
Lisa Lefferts, SARE Conference, 2006)
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Emerging food system alternativesFair Trade

• Fair Trade FederationPrinciples and Practices
• FAIR WAGES IN THE LOCAL CONTEXT
• PARTICIPATORY WORKPLACES
• ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY
• FINANCIAL AND TECHNICAL SUPPORT
• CONSUMER EDUCATION
• RESPECT FOR CULTURAL IDENTITY
• PUBLIC ACCOUNTABILITY

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ConclusionsMaximizing the benefits of local
regional food systems

• Pay attention to the whole life cycle of food
  products.

• Make a commitment to fair prices, equity and
  long- term relationships between people working
  in different sectors.

• Make sure that high-quality, affordable food is
  available to those who need it most.

• Ensure that LFS dont diminish opportunities
  for farmers in other countries who desperately
  need a source of income.

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Conclusions

• Sustainable food systems must operate within
  ecological limits.

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Conclusions

• Solutions to food system problems depend on
  social factors and interdisciplinary knowledge.

• Resilience ability to withstand disturbance
• Adaptive capacity abilityto recover from
  disturbance

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ConclusionsWhat is at stake
Young people enteringfarming food system
careers
Healthy, well-fed children
Diverse food businesses
Workinglandscapes
Biodiversity
Thriving family farms
Clean groundwater
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