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Achievements in Wildland Fire Risk Mapping

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... Symposium conclusif, Conclusive symposium, Avignon, 20/10/2006. 1. Achievements ... EUFIRELAB, Symposium conclusif, Conclusive symposium, Avignon, 20/10/2006. 2 ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Achievements in Wildland Fire Risk Mapping


1
Achievements in Wildland Fire Risk Mapping
Acquis enCartographiedu Risque dIncendies de
Forêt
2
Wildland Fire Risk Mapping
  • Deliverables
  • Wildland fire danger and hazards a state of the
    art
  • Common methods for mapping the wildland fire
    danger
  • Towards an Euro-Mediterranean Wildland Fire
    Danger Rating System
  • Objectives
  • Analyse the structure of existing wildland fire
    danger indexes
  • Design an Euro-Mediterranean Fire Danger Rating
    System

3
Wildland Fire Danger and Hazards a state of the
art (D-08-02, D-08-07)
  • Wildland fire structure and terminology on fire
    risk
  • Fire risk issues
  • Temporal and spatial issues
  • Fire management and risk assessment
  • Risk variables
  • Vegetation
  • Climatic and meteorological
  • Topography
  • Anthropogenic variables

4
Common methods for mappingthe wildland fire
danger (D-08-05)
  • Methods for wildland fire risk mapping
  • Dynamic fire risk indices
  • Static-structural danger indices
  • Operationally applied methods for fire danger
    estimation in Mediterranean countries
  • Short-term
  • Long-term
  • Inventory of existing databases
  • Cartographic interfaces for the dissemination of
    fire danger indices

5
Scheme of the Euro-Mediterranean Wildland Fire
Risk Index (EM-WFRI) (D-08-03, D-08-06)
Satellite index
Fuel moisture
Ignition Danger Index
Meteo Index
Probability of ignition (human factors)
Human ignition
Fuel properties
Propagation Danger Index
Wind flows
EM - WFRI
Topography
Population exposition
Environmental value
Vulnerability Index
Economic value
Potential soil erosion
6
Fuel Moisture (Satellite Information)
FMCg -57.103 284.808 x NDVI 0.089 x ST
136.75 x FDg FMCc 70.195 53.520 x NDVI
1.435 x ST 122.087 x FDc
(a)
(b)
Live fuel moisture content map (August, 10th
2004)
Observed and estimated FMC values for grasslands
(a) and C. ladanifer (b).
7
Fuel moisture(Meteorological Index)
  • Correlation between meteorological variables and
    environmental and topographic variables
  • elevation ( r -0.72/-0.97),
  • aspect (r -0.34/-0.53),
  • slope (r -0.44/-0.70),
  • sea distance (-0.40/-0.93)
  • Multiple regression
  • r 0.97 for minimum and maximum temperature of
    January and July
  • Spatial interpolation of meteorological index
    value
  • Interpolation of the meteorological parameters of
    the index (temperature, wind)
  • Interpolation of the meteorological index

8
Spatial interpolation of meteorological risk index
(c)
(a)
Interpolation of meteorological risk index
a) high resolution -50 x 50 m- b) low
resolution -1 x 1 km- Meteorological risk
index from interpolated variables c) high
resolution -50 x 50 m-
(b)
9
Probability of Ignition(Human Factors)
Landuse types
Urban density
Road network
Structural forest fire ignition risk
10
Probability of Ignition(Human Factors
occurrence)
11
Scheme of the Euro-Mediterranean Wildland Fire
Risk Index (EM-WFRI)
Satellite index
Fuel moisture
Ignition Danger Index
Meteo Index
Probability of ignition (human factors)
Human ignition
Fuel properties
Propagation Danger Index
Wind flows
EM - WFRI
Topography
Population exposition
Environmental value
Vulnerability Index
Economic value
Potential soil erosion
12
Propagation Danger Index
Rate of Spread (RS)
Propagation Danger Index (PDI)
Flame Length (FL)
EU SPREAD Project, 2004
13
Vulnerability Index Environmental value
  • Landscape Value
  • Singularity
  • Diversity
  • Connectivity
  • ......

CORINE LAND COVER
Environmental Value
  • Ecological
  • Value
  • Natural protected areas
  • Habitat of importance
  • .....

NATURA 2000 NETWORK
14
Vulnerability Index Potential soil erosion
Coefficients ascribed to the four soil erosion
factors used to estimate erosion risk
Erosion Index Slope Vegetation density Fire
severity Soil erodibility
Low 5 Intermediate 6 15 High 16-26 Very
high 27
15
Vulnerability Index Potential soil erosion
Slope
Vegetation density
Fire severity
Soil erodibility
16
Conclusions
  • The components and structure of a risk index
    have been identified.
  • Several examples have been shown to demonstrate
    their efficiency.
  • The remaining challenge is to acquire better
    data necessary for risk estimation at the
    European scale.
  • A GIS can be easily used for the generation and
    integration of the variables, and a map web
    server could be used for the distribution of the
    data and presentation of the risk.
  • Two scales must be considered independently
  • The European scale provides deciders with a
    global vision of the risk.
  • The local scale provides an operational basis
    upon which local foresters and firemen can make
    practical decisions.
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