Title: Achievements in Wildland Fire Risk Mapping
1Achievements in Wildland Fire Risk Mapping
Acquis enCartographiedu Risque dIncendies de
Forêt
2Wildland Fire Risk Mapping
- Deliverables
- Wildland fire danger and hazards a state of the
art - Common methods for mapping the wildland fire
danger - Towards an Euro-Mediterranean Wildland Fire
Danger Rating System
- Objectives
- Analyse the structure of existing wildland fire
danger indexes - Design an Euro-Mediterranean Fire Danger Rating
System
3Wildland Fire Danger and Hazards a state of the
art (D-08-02, D-08-07)
- Wildland fire structure and terminology on fire
risk - Fire risk issues
- Temporal and spatial issues
- Fire management and risk assessment
- Risk variables
- Vegetation
- Climatic and meteorological
- Topography
- Anthropogenic variables
4Common methods for mappingthe wildland fire
danger (D-08-05)
- Methods for wildland fire risk mapping
- Dynamic fire risk indices
- Static-structural danger indices
- Operationally applied methods for fire danger
estimation in Mediterranean countries - Short-term
- Long-term
- Inventory of existing databases
- Cartographic interfaces for the dissemination of
fire danger indices
5Scheme of the Euro-Mediterranean Wildland Fire
Risk Index (EM-WFRI) (D-08-03, D-08-06)
Satellite index
Fuel moisture
Ignition Danger Index
Meteo Index
Probability of ignition (human factors)
Human ignition
Fuel properties
Propagation Danger Index
Wind flows
EM - WFRI
Topography
Population exposition
Environmental value
Vulnerability Index
Economic value
Potential soil erosion
6Fuel Moisture (Satellite Information)
FMCg -57.103 284.808 x NDVI 0.089 x ST
136.75 x FDg FMCc 70.195 53.520 x NDVI
1.435 x ST 122.087 x FDc
(a)
(b)
Live fuel moisture content map (August, 10th
2004)
Observed and estimated FMC values for grasslands
(a) and C. ladanifer (b).
7Fuel moisture(Meteorological Index)
- Correlation between meteorological variables and
environmental and topographic variables - elevation ( r -0.72/-0.97),
- aspect (r -0.34/-0.53),
- slope (r -0.44/-0.70),
- sea distance (-0.40/-0.93)
- Multiple regression
- r 0.97 for minimum and maximum temperature of
January and July - Spatial interpolation of meteorological index
value - Interpolation of the meteorological parameters of
the index (temperature, wind) - Interpolation of the meteorological index
8Spatial interpolation of meteorological risk index
(c)
(a)
Interpolation of meteorological risk index
a) high resolution -50 x 50 m- b) low
resolution -1 x 1 km- Meteorological risk
index from interpolated variables c) high
resolution -50 x 50 m-
(b)
9Probability of Ignition(Human Factors)
Landuse types
Urban density
Road network
Structural forest fire ignition risk
10Probability of Ignition(Human Factors
occurrence)
11Scheme of the Euro-Mediterranean Wildland Fire
Risk Index (EM-WFRI)
Satellite index
Fuel moisture
Ignition Danger Index
Meteo Index
Probability of ignition (human factors)
Human ignition
Fuel properties
Propagation Danger Index
Wind flows
EM - WFRI
Topography
Population exposition
Environmental value
Vulnerability Index
Economic value
Potential soil erosion
12Propagation Danger Index
Rate of Spread (RS)
Propagation Danger Index (PDI)
Flame Length (FL)
EU SPREAD Project, 2004
13Vulnerability Index Environmental value
- Landscape Value
- Singularity
- Diversity
- Connectivity
- ......
CORINE LAND COVER
Environmental Value
- Ecological
- Value
- Natural protected areas
- Habitat of importance
- .....
NATURA 2000 NETWORK
14Vulnerability Index Potential soil erosion
Coefficients ascribed to the four soil erosion
factors used to estimate erosion risk
Erosion Index Slope Vegetation density Fire
severity Soil erodibility
Low 5 Intermediate 6 15 High 16-26 Very
high 27
15Vulnerability Index Potential soil erosion
Slope
Vegetation density
Fire severity
Soil erodibility
16Conclusions
- The components and structure of a risk index
have been identified. - Several examples have been shown to demonstrate
their efficiency. - The remaining challenge is to acquire better
data necessary for risk estimation at the
European scale. - A GIS can be easily used for the generation and
integration of the variables, and a map web
server could be used for the distribution of the
data and presentation of the risk. - Two scales must be considered independently
- The European scale provides deciders with a
global vision of the risk. - The local scale provides an operational basis
upon which local foresters and firemen can make
practical decisions.