Debrief on: The Seattle Regions Roads

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Debrief onThe Seattle Regions Roads Transit
Prop 1
Defeated on Nov 7, 2007

• Prepared for Presentation to the
• American Dream Coalition
• By
• Emory Bundy, Jim MacIsaac and Doug Simpson
• November 11, 2007

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What Was the RT Package?

• RTID (Regional Roads Package)
• Initially an 18 billion capital program to
  improve highways of statewide significance
• Reduced by half to allow a Balanced Roads and
  Transit Package
• Sound Transit ST2 Package
• Started out as a Phase 2 program of 80 transit
  projects desired by participating agencies
• Emerged as mostly a 50-mile extension of Sound
  Transits Light Rail System

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Central Link LRT
ST1/ST2 LRT Plan
Promise at 2.3 B
Delivery at 4.2 B
18 miles with12 Stations
24 miles with21 Stations
70 miles with34 Stations
??
2016?
InitialSegmentby 2010
Completionby 2006
Total - 21 Billion
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All-or-Nothing Ballot

• Forced by State Legislature seeking combined
  support
• Total Package Tax 1.0 Sales Tax plus 0.8
  MVET
• 20 of state sales tax would go to transit
• Tax Sunset Years
• RTID Would Sunset in 2037
• ST1 ST2 Hopeful reduction after 2057 bond
  payoff (but no law commitment)

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Campaign Approach

• It Costs too much
• And it Does so Little!

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RT Package Cost
2008-2027 (20-year Capital Development Period)

• Cap Cost
• 2006
• ST1 Extend N.A.
• ST2 11 b
• RTID 7 b
• Totals 18 b

Full Cost YOE N.A. 23.6 b 14.5 b
38.1 b
Post 2027 Bond Interest 9.3 b
47.4 b
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157 Billion RT Tax Proposal
Total Tax Collections 2008-27 2008-57

• RTID (Roads) 8.0 b 16
  b
• ST1 Extension 14.8 b 64 b
• Sound Transit 11.7 b 77
  b
• Total Tax Authorization 34.5 b 157 Billion

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Why thru 2057 for ST2? Because Sales Tax Revenues
will be used to secure the ST2 Bonds with payoff
extending thru 2057. ST uses legal means to
extend tax collections.
Source Sound Transit estimates thru 2040,
extended to 2057.
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Post-Elect Advise to Supporters

• "Release one price tag and don't mention another
  number, ever. So many cost figures were
  discussed, the public was never certain which was
  correct. The mentality became, if the experts
  don't know the true cost, how would we?
  Seattle Times

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Regional Transit Ridership
Within Sound Transit Service Area
Average Weekday 2030 w/o ST2 Total
Person Trips 13,200,000 Total
Transit Trips 482,000 Transit
Mode Share 3.7 Transit
Boardings 661,000 Transfer
Rate 1.37
With ST2 Change 13,200,000 556,000
74,000 4.2 0.5
818,000 157,000 1.47 2.12
Includes ST1 With Central Link from Airport to
UW Stadium. Source ST Making Connections,
Appendix C, June 2007
2006 Mode Share 2.9 Transfer Rate 1.29.
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ST2 Effect on Regional Travel

• ST1 and ST2 reflect a Light Rail Transit Overlay
  of transit services to downtown Seattle
• But downtown Seattle represents only 10 of
  Regions jobs
• The ST2 effect on the Balance of the Region is
  negligible
• Following are proportions of tri-county trips
  generated by three subsectors and the share of
  those trips served by transit

Percent of
Transit Mode Shares Region Subsector
Total Trips 1998 Base 2030 w/ST12
Seattle CBD 5-
27 44 Balance of Seattle
20-18 4.5 6.5
Balance of Region 75-77 0.5
0.7 Total Region
100 2.7 3.7
Source PSRC 2006 MTP Update.
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Our Campaign Approach

• It Costs too much, and does so little
• 157 BILLION Dollars ltka-chinggt
• Heerrees Doug

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