HPCC

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HPCC
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Stratfors Zen
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Stratfors Mission
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Stratfors Approach
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Forecasts

• 1995Predicted Asian financial crash
• 1995Predicted failure of Russian reform
• January, 1999Predicted Kosovo War
• August, 1999Announced Russian silent coup
• Current forecasts
• Russian struggle for borderlands
• Real possibility of Chinese breakup
• Sino-Russian alliance against U.S.

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Stratfors History

• Founded in 1995 in Baton Rouge
• Spin-off from Center for Geopolitical Studies
• Headquartered in Austin, Texas
• Clients in defense, media, telecommunications,
  investment banking, law, textiles, petrochemical,
  forestry, regional government and other areas
• Global Intelligence Update launched in 1995
• Web-based intelligence center launched in March
  1999
• Sister company Infraworks

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Stratfors Tasks

• Public
• Monitor events on a global scale identifying
  significant pointers
• Provide real time analysis of events
• Generate high level geopolitical analysis
• Levels
• Global
• Regional
• Hot spots
• Crisis centers

• Private clients
• Build on public services
• Use same methodology for monitoring, analyzing
  and forecasting client significant events
• Provide specialized, focused intelligence
  services
• Narrow monitoring
• Focused projects
• Training for staff and senior executives

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Open Source Intelligence

• Denotes published
• Not a term we use
• We use the concept legally obtained information
• What we dont do
• National technical means
• espionage, illegal activities
• What we do most other things
• Rely heavily on digital information
• cost
• speed

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Enabled by Technology

• Pre-1980 information scarcity
• Ephemeral information
• Lack of connectivity
• Intelligence focus on collection
• Post-1980
• Digitized information
• Intensifying connectivity
• Intelligence focus on sorting
• Core issue remains analysis

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Cyberspace
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Caveats

• Most information produced in the world is still
  in paper
• Most valuable digitized information is not
  on-line or requires special protocols for access.
• Most of the web has not been catalogued and is
  not accessible through search engines
• A good research library dwarfs the web
• Quantity of usable information
• Quality of usable information
• Accessibility of information
• Webs advantage speed and timeliness

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System Exists to Serve the Analyst

• Primary task of system is to discard information
• Information provided to analyst
• Push process
• Pull process
• Goals
• Prevent information overload
• Provide information teasers
• Create atmosphere of calm reflection for the
  analyst

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Analyst Process

• Net Assessment
• Ten year, one year, one quarter forecast
• Weekly analysis
• Weekly centering
• Zero based analysis
• Global Intelligence Update
• Naïve sitrepping
• Rotating analysts
• Tremendous tension greatly encouraged

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Browsing Process

• Identification of strategic locations in
  cyberspace
• Varies by mission
• Varies over time
• Cannot/should not be routinized
• Create monitoring protocols
• Outcome
• Information
• Pointers to new sources before search engines can
  catalogue
• Pointers to paper sources
• Pointers to individuals

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Website as Magnet

• Careful analysis of web traffic by users
• Generation of email
• GIU Signups
• Discussion of issues
• Aggressive management of email
• Use of email to establish on-line relationships
• Potential for the development of off-line
  relationships

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The only thing that matters...Being Right!

• The Microsoft Ethic brought to intelligence
• Brainsnot credentials
• Insightnot social graces
• Originalitynot the conventional wisdom
• Successnot excuses
• We dont get invited to cocktail parties and we
  wouldnt go if we were.

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Stratfor

• Strategic Forecasting
• Intelligence
• Knowledge Management