Zocalo

1
Zocalo

• Developing Open Source Prediction Market Software
• Chris Hibbert
• CommerceNet Labs
• DIMACS Workshop on Markets as Predictive Devices
• 4 February 2005

2
Zocalo Challenges

• My Objective
• Promote broader use of Prediction Markets
• Our Opportunity
• CommerceNet is starting an e-commerce lab.
• One Key Obstacle
• No common software platform for prediction
  markets yet.

3
Zocalo A Proposal

• Our Proposed Solution
• Catalyze development of an Open Source toolkit
  for Experimental ( Real) markets.
• Call to Action
• Identify promising wheels to stop re-inventing.
• Collaborate with us on your next experiment.
• Help us make the case to CommerceNet.

4
Outline

• My Background and Incentives
• Why me?
• The Target Markets for Zocalo
• Who should care?
• Why arent PM Toolkits Available Already?
• Benefits of Open Source
• Design for Flexibility
• Benefits of Working with CommerceNet

5
My Background

• MIT, Xerox PARC
• Managed S/W Development for 12 Years
• Teams of 3 to 15 people
• E-Commerce projects at Agorics, Inc.
• Project Manager, Architect for GuardPoste Secure
  EMail Server, recently sold to Microsoft
• Extensive Experience with Electronic Commerce
• Internal E-Commerce at Sun Labs.
• Electronic Check (IBM, Sun, Top-10 banks)
• Strong background in Economics
• Have deployed and written Idea Futures S/W

6
Target Audiences
.edu Econ Departments Show how markets work
CommerceNet
.com Business Planning, Trading
.org SimonMarket.org Policy Discussion
7
Why Arent Prediction Market Toolkits Available?

• Researchers focus on running experiments
• Little reward for publishing software.
• Toolkits emerge once experiments are systematized
• Corporate users develop proprietary solutions
• Consulting, not general-purpose infrastructure.
• CommerceNets motivation is different
• Its research focus is software engineering.
• Has track record of sharing software that creates
  new markets for electronic commerce.

8
Benefits of Open Source

• Open Source Packages Best Practices and Makes it
  Accessible
• Later Users can Add Value to the Foundation
• Every Econ or Business Student Should Learn How
  to Put Together a Market
• Entrepreneurs Will Invent New Uses and Apply
  Markets in More Ways
• Some Will be Contributed Back to the OS project

9
The Zocalo Toolkit Design

• Develop a Variety of Exchange Tools
• Support CDA and Call Markets
• Trade Predictions or Virtual Commodities
• Handle Play Money or Valuable Goods
• Support for Experiments
• Instrument all Activity
• Export Data in Useful Formats for Analysis
• Apply Current S/W Development Approaches
• Flexible Support for UIs
• Scalability, Decentralization, Security

10
Who is CommerceNet?

• 10-Year Old Non-Profit with Money
• Mission is Promoting New Forms of E-Commerce
• Neutral Party that Convenes Interest Groups to
  Create Common Tools
• e.g. E-Commerce, XML, Audience Measurement
• Fosters Entrepreneurs
• Creating a New Software Research Lab
• Focus on Decentralization and E-Commerce
• zClassifieds, zMart, would use Zocalo

11
Project Phases

• First Step
• Collect Requirements
• Support Experiments Work with Experimenters
• Demonstrate Reuse
• Short Term
• Expand Variety of Market Institutions
• Ensure Easy Configurability
• Medium Term
• Deploy Internal Pilots to Businesses
• Develop support for Confederations of Markets
• Long Term
• Deploy Public Markets with Partners

12
Collaboration Possibilities

• Collaboration is one of CommerceNets Strengths
• We are Looking for Partners
• (S/W Developers, Experimenters, Entrepreneurs)
• Express Your Interest
• Describe Your Needs
• Tell us When You want to Deploy a Market
• White Paper available in February chris.hibbert_at_c
  ommerce.net
• http//zLab.Commerce.Net
• http//blog.Commerce.Net