The Effect of Gun Shows on Gunrelated Deaths

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The Effect of Gun Shows on Gun-related Deaths

• Mark Duggan
• Randi Hjalmarsson
• Brian A. Jacob
• Discussant David Hemenway
• September 2007

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• Contribution
• Little written _at_ Gun Shows
• Limitations

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• Underestimate Detrimental Effect
• 1) Look only at surrounding areas, but crime
  guns travel
• (e.g. 85 of guns used in crime in NYC from
  out of state)
• Less of a problem for suicides

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• 2) Look only at effect in first few weeks but
  guns durable
• In CA,
• For crime guns, median time-to-crime is 6 years
  for
  
• Wintemute GJ. et al.
• Life cycle of crime guns a description based
  on guns recovered from young people in
  California. Ann Emerg Med, 2004 43(6)733-42
• In Columbine shootings, the killers obtained
  guns from two separate individuals who purchased
  the guns for them months before at gun shows.

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• Even for suicides, most gun suicides occur years
  after the gun purchase
• In one study, the median time between gun
  purchase and suicide was 11 years
• Only 13 of firearm suicides in first YEAR.
• Cummings P. et al.
• Association between purchase
• of a handgun and homicide or suicide.
• Am J Public Health, 1997 87(6)974-8.

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• 3) Look only at gun death, not non-fatal
  injuries, gun use in crime and assault, guns used
  to intimidate (e.g. IPV).

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• B) Overestimate detrimental effect
• 1) If gun shows largely affect timing of
  purchase
• (due to convenience)
• would buy at some other time place
• (e.g. gun store, flea market)
• 2) Possible benefits of guns (e.g. self
  defense).

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• Other limitations of the paper
• Treat gun shows as homogeneous (until dichotomize
  by size of community)
• But gun shows very different (e.g. CA shows
  unlike AZ shows), see Wintemute GJ. Gun shows
  across a multi-state American gun market
  observational evidence of the effects of
  regulatory policies. Inj Prev., 2007 13150-155.

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• Minor suggestions for the paper
• Examine effects on gun suicide and non gun
  suicide
• You need also show results for effect on total
  suicide

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• Need better literature review
• Up-to-date data available
• E.g.-- Gun stock data (discuss 1996 study)
• Hepburn L. et al. U.S. gun stock
  results from the 2004 national firearms survey
  Inj Prev., 2007 1315-19.
• -- Percent of suicides with a firearm
  (discuss 2001 data)
• WISQARS provides data for 2004
• -- State gun law information (discuss
  2003 study)
• LCAV has current data.

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• b) Very incomplete review of studies linking guns
  and death

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Private Guns, Public Health

• 2006, Univ. of Michigan

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Big problem with paper is the conclusion

• (a) Our results provide little evidence to
  suggest that gun shows lead to any substantial
  increase in crime

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• (a) Our results provide little evidence to
  suggest that gun shows lead to any substantial
  increase in homicide

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• (a) Our results provide little evidence to
  suggest that gun shows lead to any substantial
  increase in homicide,
• in that county

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• (a) Our results provide little evidence to
  suggest that gun shows lead to any substantial
  increase in homicide,
• in that county, within a few weeks

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• Conclusions (cont.)
• (b) Overall the resultssuggest that gun shows
  themselves do not impose large social costs
• Actually find that for every 100 gun shows, five
  people die if
  value people at 3 million
• Power calculations need a 10 increase in gun
  death
• Given limitations, Im shocked at any
  significant finding.

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• The big social problem with gun shows are
• sales without background checks
• Policy proposals are designed not to eliminate
  gun shows, but to eliminate transfers without
  background checks at gun shows AND flea markets
  AND elsewhere
• True, if eliminate only gun shows, less of an
  effect
• Currently, for some 40 of gun transfers, no
  background check.

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• My largest concern
• Data are from California
• 1. 1989 CA eliminated the gun show loophole
• -- every gun transfer requires a
  background check

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• My largest concern
• Data are from California
• 1. 1989 CA eliminated the gun show loophole
• -- every gun transfer requires a
  background check
• 2. Since 1953
• Waiting Period (now 10 days) for gun
  purchases

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• (a) Our results provide little evidence to
  suggest that gun shows lead to any substantial
  increase in homicide,
• in that county, within a few weeks, in states
  where there is no gun show loophole at gun shows,
  and where there is a 10-day waiting period for
  gun purchases.