Janusz Cofala, Reinhard Mechler, Markus Amann

1
Janusz Cofala, Reinhard Mechler, Markus Amann

• Hemispheric emission projections for air
  pollutants
• (SO2, NOx, VOC, CO)
• and
• greenhouse gases
• (CH4)

2
Methodology

• IIASAs RAINS (EuropeAsia) model
• National energy projections up to 2020
• national legislation on air pollution control
• national emission projections, control costs
• atmospheric dispersion
• impact assessment
• regional environmental impacts of ozone,
  acidification, PM

3
Emission legislation (1)

• Europe 1999 Gothenburg Protocol of CLTRAPEU
  legislation National Emission Ceilings Directive
  (2000)
• Former Soviet UnionFor European part action
  implied by Gothenburg Protocol of Russia, no
  measures in Asian part
• China10th Environmental 5-years Plan 2000-2005

4
Emission legislation (2)

• East Asia (Japan, Korea, Thailand, Indonesia,
  Philippines, etc.) Review of national
  legislations
• South Asia (India)Essentially uncontrolled
• Emission projections from other sources
• United StatesUS-EPA estimates (2001)
• CanadaOzone Annex of Canada-U.S. Air Quality
  Agreement

5
Emission projections for air pollutants
NOx
SO2
VOC
CO
North America
Europe
FSU
China
East Asia
South Asia
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Car Standards in AsiaMost Countries Starting To
Move Forward
Vehicle emission standards in Asia Source M.
Walsh, 2002
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Reinhard Mechler, Janusz Cofala

• An extension of the RAINS model to include
  emissions of methane (CH4)
• First results

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Methane in RAINS Methodology
Activity levels and projections (fuel
consumption, number of animals, population,
etc.)RAINS, FAO, IPCC/SRES Emission factors
revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines (unabated) Control
options and their efficienciesbased on ECOFYS
(1998) study
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Comparison of CH4 estimatesfor Europe, 1990
Other countries
EU-15
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Control options for CH4

• Enteric fermentation
• Dietary modifications (6 options)
• Manure management
• Complete emptying of stable cellar
• Controlled fermentation
• Combined manure agri-organic fermentation
• Coal mining
• Integrated recovery

• Gas distribution
• Increased gas utilization
• Offshore flaring instead of venting
• Natural gas compressors
• Replacement of gray cast iron network
• Double leak control frequency
• Waste
• CH4 recovery and electricity generation
• Gas upgrade
• Flaring

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CH4 projectionsEU-15
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CH4 projectionsOther European countries
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CH4 projectionsAsia
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Uncertainties and further work

• Uncertainties still quite high, but decreasing
• Major uncertainties
• - Waste Driving forces are growth rate in per
  capita income, rate of urbanization
• - Control options derived for EU-15
• Projections only include technological reduction
  potential
• Next steps include costs and uncertainty ranges

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Conclusions

• Air pollutants
• National and global projections differ
• Concern about air pollution will limit further
  growth of emissions in developing countries
• Expected emission growth in developing countries
  unlikely to outweigh decrease of emissions in
  Europe and North America
• Methane
• There is significant potential for controlling
  emissions