The Poverty Challenge in Northern Ireland

1
The Poverty Challenge in Northern Ireland Mike
Tomlinson Sociology and Social Policy Queens
University Belfast CASE Social
Exclusion Seminar LSE, 10th December 2003
2
Why a PSE survey?
a) no publicly available income data
(new earnings survey, LFS, FES,
CHS) b) no NI-wide poverty survey since Townsend
(1968) c) Robson and Noble multiple
deprivation indexes and (new) Targeting
Social Need d) equality monitoring deficits
e.g. social
security data, religion, children
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Key objectives
a) to provide a baseline measurement of
PSE in N. Ireland b) to provide data on the
extent to which poverty impacts across the
nine dimensions of equality specified in
Section 75 of the Northern Ireland Act 1998
and c) to provide data which allow Northern
Ireland to be compared with the results of
the British PSE Survey, HBAI and poverty
levels in the Republic of Ireland.
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Measurement of poverty two broad approaches
1. Income based measures eg
households below 50 mean or 60 median 2.
Income and deprivation indicators combined
Consistent poverty measure Consensual
poverty measure
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Different equivalence scales
PSE NI weekly household incomes Raw PSE
McCl OECD RoI Mean 370.1
304.8 343.9 221.3
205.7 Median 290.0 236.4 270.0
170.0 162.2
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PSE1 McClements2 Modified RoI (A)
OECD First Adult 0.70
0.61 1.0 1.00 Spouse 0.30 0.39
0.5 0.66 Other Second Adult 0.45
0.46 0.5 0.66 Third Adult 0.45
0.42 0.5 0.66 Subsequent Adults 0.45
0.36 0.5 0.66 Children aged lt 14yrs 0.35
0.20 0.3 0.33 Children aged 14yrs
0.30 0.30 0.5 0.33 Notes 1. The
PSE scale weights the first child at 0.35 and
each additional child at 0.3. If the head of
the household is a lone parent 0.1 is added. 2.
The McClements scale has more age groups than
shown above 0-1 0.09 2-4 0.18 5-7
0.21 8-10 0.23 11-12 0.25 13-15 0.27
16 and over 0.36.
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Proportion of persons in households below
relative income thresholds using different
equivalence scales
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Steps in the consensual poverty measure

• Survey 1 which items are necessities?
• Survey 2 necessities which people cant afford
• Select necessities which are robust indicators of
  deprivation
• Maximise difference between poor and non-poor
  groups and minimise the difference within those
  groups
• Produce poverty threshold

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Necessities examples (1) Omnibus Have
Cant necessary
afford
FOOD Fresh fruit veg every day 92 84
5 HOUSING Pay heating/electricity/phone bills
on time 99 91 8 Replace worn out
furniture 79 67 28 CLOTHES Warm, waterproof
coat 93 91 5 Good clothes for job
interviews 86 85 6 New not 2nd hand
clothes 62 91 6 INFORMATION
Telephone 81 95 3
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Necessities examples (2) Omnibus
Have Cant necessary
afford
DURABLE GOODS Replace/repair goods e.g.
fridge, washing machine 95 75 23
Car 53 71 12 PERSONAL FINANCES Access to
decent pension 94 57 24 Home contents
insurance 89 78 12 SOCIAL Family days
out 86 74 7 One weeks annual holiday
away from home 60 57 24
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Which necessities do poor households lack?
Replacing worn out furniture 77 Regul
ar savings (10 per month) 72 One week
holiday 67 Replacing/repairing fridge/washing
machine 66 Access to a decent pension 61 Enou
gh to pay heating, electricity, phone bills on
time 25 Enough to keep home decently
decorated 37 Home contents insurance 35 Good
clothes for job interviews 21 Two pairs of
strong shoes 20 New not 2nd hand
clothes 19 Fresh fruit and veg every
day 16 Meal with meat or fish every other
day 11

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Combining low income and deprivation Living in
Ireland consistent poverty 1 of 8
pre-determined items plus low income (60 per
cent of median) PSE consensual poverty 3 of
29 items defined by popular consensus plus
low income
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Baseline poverty measure
29.6 of households were in poverty 37.4
of children were growing up in poor households
185,000 of Northern Ireland's households were in
poverty 502,000 people were living in poor
households 148,900 children were growing up in
poor households
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Poverty and Inequality Section 75 29.6
Poverty rates by religion of HR 25 of
Protestant households 36 of Catholic
households (a ratio of 11.44) by national
identity (not a Section 75 dimension) 25
of British households 37 of Irish
households
15
Poverty and Inequality Section 75 29.6
Poverty rates by political opinion 19
Ulster Unionist Party 30 SDLP 32
DUP 43 Sinn Féin (a ratio of 2.261UUP)
16
Poverty and Inequality Section 75 29.6
Poverty rates by race 19 ethnic
minority groups by sexual orientation
48 same sex 44 bi-sexual Not reliable
or significant
17

Poverty and Inequality Section 75 29.6
Poverty rates by age
18
Poverty and Inequality Section 75 29.6
Poverty rates by marital status 21
married or cohabiting 39 single
46 divorced 54 separated
67 lone parents
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RESULTS

• Poverty and Inequality Section 75
• 29.6

Poverty rates by gender 25 of all men
were living in poor households 29 of all
women (a ratio of 1 1.16) Of all adults
in poor households 57 per cent were women
20
Poverty and Inequality Section 75 29.6
Poverty rates by disability 56
households with one or more disabled people
29 households without disability (a ratio of
1.931) 100 of the households in which
no-one was working and which contained
someone sick or disabled were in poverty
21
Poverty and Inequality Section 75 29.6
Poverty rates, with or without dependants
36 childless households in which one adult
was caring for another adult, in their own
household or elsewhere (18 of all poor
households) 32 households caring for
children (19 of all poor households)
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Poverty and Inequality
64 of individuals have below average incomes
(60 in Britain). Top 40 of households
together possess 67 of the total household
income Gini coefficient for Northern
Ireland 1998/99 38 2002/03 42
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Northern Ireland compared east/west
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Northern Ireland compared east/west
Proportion of persons living in households below
HBAI median income thresholds
25
Northern Ireland compared north/south
Proportion of persons in consistent poverty
(Ireland, North and South)
26
Northern Ireland compared north/south
Proportion of persons in overall poverty
(Ireland, North and South)
27
N. Ireland poverty rates, using different methods
of calculation proportions of persons
(households)
28
Labour market exclusion
29
Poverty and conflict

Poverty rate Catholics
Protestants (36) (25) Close relative
killed 54 30 Personally injured 40
33 Relative injured 48 26 Witnessed
murder 48 39 Witnessed 3 or more
troubles 42 25 Knows people killed
injured 47 24 Severe troubles experience 52
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Download report at www.democraticdialogue.org Onl
ine necessities questionnaire is
at www.qub.ac.uk/ssp/webpages/pse.htm