Title: KBC Group
1KBC Group
- Is Benelux boring?UBS Benelux Financials
Conference, September 2006
2Important information for investors
- This presentation is provided for informational
purposes only. It does not constitute an offer
to sell or the solicitation to buy any security
issued by the KBC Group. - KBC believes that this presentation is reliable,
although the information is condensed and
therefore incomplete. - This presentation contains forward-looking
statements, involving numerous assumptions and
uncertainties. The risk exists that these
statements may not be fulfilled and that future
developments differ materially. Moreover, KBC
does not undertake any obligation to update the
presentation in line with new developments. - By reading this presentation, each investor is
deemed to represent that it possesses sufficient
expertise to understand the risks involved.
3Contents
- The Benelux demystified
- What makes KBC different
- Conclusions
4The Benelux demystified
- There are many common misunderstandings about the
Benelux market. - I would like to invite you to identify the valid
and false statements - The Benelux is a small market
- The Benelux is a consolidated market
- The Benelux is a low growth market
- The Benelux ia a low efficiency / high cost
market - The Benelux is a low risk market
- The Benelux is a low margin / low profitability
market
5Is the Be(ne)lux a small market ?
- Banking assets per capita in the Benelux are at
the high end of the European spectrum, higher
than e.g. France and Germany - As a consequence, unlike the limited number of
inhabitants, total banking assets in the Benelux
are approx. 1.5 times higher than in countries
like Spain and Italy - However, the Benelux market does not exist. It
comprises3 sovereign states, 3 languages, 3
markets with different players and different
characteristics and dynamics - KBC is a Belux player, operating on the Belgian
market with a significant (off-shore)
wealth-management presence in Luxembourg
Banking assets per capita(in 000 euros)
Mutual funds, AUM per capita(in 000 euros)
May 2006
1 600
1 500
Avg EU12
Source Feri FMI
Source ECB
6Is Belgium a consolidated market ?
Share of the 5 largest banks in total assets
Market share of 4 largest Belgian banks
Avg EU12
Source ECB
Source Annual reports
- Concentration is high, with top-5 institutions
holding appx. 85 of the market - In Belgium, the bancassurance model prevails (all
important players are bancassurers) and cross
selling rates typically are very high
banking products X mortgages X asset management X
insurance
7Is Belgium a low growth market ?
KBC, Belgium, y/y Total loans Mortgages Customer deposits Life reserves Assets under management
Growth, 1H06 9 15 3 34 21
Growth, 2005 8 16 4 38 31
Growth, 2004 5 9 10 28 20
- Belgium has experienced high growth in many
fields - Core growth drivers are
- House price inflation (from low average house
price levels) driving mortgage book growth and,
consequently, building the basis for further
cross selling - High savings rate, historic low private pension
building and muted popularity of offshore
investments driving wealth management growth - Shift from traditional customer deposits to
off-balance sheet products (incl. unit-linked
Life) driven by overliquid bank balance sheets
(sector average loans to deposits at 75)
Mutual funds, AUM, est. net sales(in m
euros)June 2005 - May 2006
Source Feri FMI
8Is Belgium a high cost market ?
KBC, Cost/income ratio, Belgium
Branches/ 000 population
Source ECB
- Average staff cost tends to be high with high
fiscal/social securities charges and high
proportion of higher-educated (better paid) staff - Nevertheless, productivity gains have brought C/I
levels to decent averages (however, best-in-class
C/I levels, such as e.g. in the UK and Spain seem
to be out of reach)
9Is Belgium a low risk area ?
KBC, loan loss ratio, Belgium
Private loans to GDP
Avg EU12
Source ECB
- The (private) economy is moderately leveraged
- Household and corporate loans to GDP 70 (vs.
95 average in Europe) - Savings rate is high has been for decades
amongst the highest in Europe - Credit exposure is well-diversified
- Mostly retail / SME business
- The number of corporates with a market cap gt 1 bn
is only 30
restated
10Is Belgium a low profit market ?
KBC, Belgium, NIM andgross revenue margin vs RWA
- NIM in Belgium is at the low side (1.94 at KBC
in 6M06) due to - The high government bond portfolios (reinvestment
of excess of deposits) - Competitive presssure in the mortgage field
- However, NI spreads are not a good denominator
for profitability - Risk is low -gt please look at risk-adjusted
margins - Cross selling (FC income) is high
- Explains why competition in customer binding
products such as mortgages is high - Far less price competition in Fee Commission
generating products - Gross margin (incl. FC) to RWA was at ca. 9 !
The increase in gross margin as of 2005 is due
to new accounting treatment (IFRS)
11What makes KBC different to its peers ?
- We believe KBC has the following competitive
advantages - Geographical presence
- Structuring capabilities in the Asset Management
field - Distribution business model
12KBCs geographical presence
Belgium
Number of branches in 2005
Total North South
KBC 946 80 10
Sector 4 564 60 30
a.o. Fortis 1 109 - -
Dexia 1 054 - -
ING 804 - -
Brussels
Source Annual reports
- For historicial reasons, KBC is mainly present in
the Northern part of the country - 90 of branches in the North, 10 in the South
- 35 market share in the North, 5 in the South
- This is highly important since the Northern
region is much wealthier that the Southern
Population(in m) GDP/capita(euros) GDP growth Unemploy-ment rate Avg sales price houses (in 000 EUR)
North 6.1 27 356 2.2 6 122
South 3.4 19 858 1.7 12 81
2004 figures
13KBCs structuring capabilities in AM
KBC, retail funds, market share, Belgium
Breakdown of KBCs retail funds, Belgium
30 June 2006
- Since gt10 consecutive years, KBC has been able to
increase its market share in mutual funds - The market has a predominantly risk-adverse
investment culture and is highly receptive for
structured retail funds, (e.g. capital
guaranteed products) for which KBC has strong
product design capabilities - Broad product range 200 new products launched
in 2006 - Short term to market 20 days on average from
idea to launch - Highly cost effective AM product factory C/I
ratio 15 (excl. distribution cost)
14KBCs distribution business model
- Integrated business model
- One single governance from top to bottom (no
seperate management, no seperate budgets, no
seperate marketing, ) - Integrated distribution channels
- Single branding, product offering and pricing
- Shared customer database
- Streamlined product profitability (shadow
accounting) - High level of customer ownership via branches
and tied agents (limited share of broker channel)
KBC, insurance, sales volume and market share
KBC, insurance distribution channels
15Conclusions
- KBC has an attractive proposition for you
- Interesting growth potential in Belgium (and,
moreover, in CEE) - Winning business model bancassurance asset
management - Modest risk profile
- Strict capital discipline and conservative
acquisition policy at Group level
16Additional information
17KBC at a glance
- COMPANY PROFILE
- Top-20 financial player in Europe with a 32 bn
euros market cap - Active in banking, wealth management and
insurance with a strongly integrated business
model - Focus on retail and SME
- Key geographical markets
- Top-3 position in Belgium (3m customers)
- Top-3 position in CEE(9m customers)
- SHAREHOLDER PROPOSITION
- Attractive franchises
- Interesting growth potential CEE and
(surprise?) Belgium - Winning bancassurance model
- Modest risk profile
- Capital discipline
- Dividend policy oriented towards yearly
increasing dividend - Conservative acquisition policy
- 2006 share buy-back (1 bn)
- Increased share visibility, liquidity,
transparancy
18Financial track record
Return on equity
Net profit
In m EUR
- Over the last years, the financial performance
improved significantly. - FY06 profit is expected to outgrow 3.2 bn euros
- KBC will update its mid-term financial objectives
before the end of the year.
Pro forma for the new KBC group
19Share return track record
20Current valuation
Valuation relative to peer group
- Key figures
- Share price 84.4 euros
- Book value 42.9 euros
- Daily traded volume 8M06 54m euro
- Analyst estimates1
- 2006 EPS consensus 9.11 euros (46)²
- 2007 EPS consensus 7.87euros
- 2007 P/E 10.7
- Recommendations
- Positive 67
- Neutral 33
- Negative 0
weighted P/E 2007 unweighted P/E 2007
CEE banks 3 14.8 14.6
CEE-exposed banks 3 12.2 11.4
Euro-zone banks 4 10.7 11.0
KBC 1 10.7 10.7
BEL banks 5 9.8 9.8
Weighted and unweighted averages of IBES data 3
OTP, Komercni, Pekao, BPH PBK, BRE 4 Erste,
Unicredit, Soc. Gen., Intesa BCI, BA-CA, RZB
Int. 5 Top-20 DJ Euro Stoxx Banks 6 Fortis, Dexia
Situation as at 4 September 2006
1 Smart consenus collected by KBC (21
estimates)2 2006 estimates contain one-off items
21Analysts opinions
Situation on 4 September 2006
Broker Name analyst Tel Rating Target price
Ron Heydenrijk 44 20 7678 0442 Buy 110
Ivan Lathouders 32 2 287 91 76 Accumulate 95
Jaap Meijer 31 20 573 06 66 Outperform 105
Kiri Vijayarajah 44-20-7986-4258 Buy 98
Ivan Vatchkov 44 20 7888 0873 Outperform 101
Carlo Ponfoort 32 3 204 77 11 Accumulate 99
Gaelle Jarrousse 44 20 7547 6226 Hold 88
Patrick Leclerc 33 1 42 99 25 12 Outperform 105
Kurt Debaenst 32 2 565 60 42 Hold 97
Alain Tchibozo 33 1 56 39 32 84 Buy 106
Christophe Ricetti 33 1 58 55 05 22 Buy 95
Paul Formanko 44 20 7325 6028 Overweight 92
Jean-Pierre Lambert 44 20 7663 5292 Market perform 96
Albert Ploegh 31 20 563 2382 Buy 100
Manus Costello 44 20 7996 1953 Neutral 88
Scander Bentchikou 33 1 44 51 83 08 Add 95
Ton Gietman 31 20 573 54 63 Hold 92
Bart van der Feen de Lille 31 20 460 48 65 Hold 95
Eric Vanpoucke 33 142 13 82 43 Neutral 93
Simon Chiavarini 44 20 7568 2131 Buy 110
Ralf Breuer 49 211 826 4987 Buy 103
22Contact information
- Investor Relations OfficeLuc Cool, Director of
IRE-mail investor.relations_at_kbc.com - Surf to www.kbc.com for the latest update