Update on Emissions Preparation and Modeling Schedule

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Update on Emissions Preparation and Modeling
Schedule

• Prepared by
• Gregory Stella
• VISTAS Technical Advisor Emission Inventories
• Alpine Geophysics, LLC
• VISTAS Joint Workgroup Meeting
• Raleigh, NC
• September 6, 2006

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Presentation

• BaseG Summary
• BaseF vs. BaseG
• All Sources
• EGU Only
• SMOKE and CMAQ Modeling Schedule

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2002 / 2009 / 2018 BaseG Summary
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Base G Emission Inventories

• Designed to reflect latest and greatest VISTAS
  emissions inventory data available
• Includes
• State/local agency modifications
• NONROAD2005
• New RPO Data
• USFS Rx Fire Projections
• Offshore Shipping
• Updated Canadian and Mexican Emissions
• Revert to Previous Coal Combustion Speciation

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Key Changes

• IPM Output Modifications
• Changes to control and utilization assumptions
• Changes to typical EGU calculation
• Now using 2000-2004 historical averages (previous
  2000-2002)
• USFS Rx Fire Forecasts
• Previously held fires constant in all years

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Key Changes

• Offshore Shipping
• Accounts for international shipping lanes along
  Atlantic Coast and Gulf of Mexico
• New RPO Data
• Each RPO has upgraded their inventories
• Canadian Forecasts
• Using 2000, 2010, and 2020 emission forecasts in
  place of static emissions

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Key Changes

• Coal Combustion Speciation Profile
• NCOAL profile (used in BaseF) overestimated OC
  component of PM-fine by order of magnitude (10x)
• Decision made by VISTAS to revert to previous
  profile 22001
• MANE-VU/CENRAP also reverted to previous profile
• MRPO used CMU-based coal combustion profile and
  therefore not impacted

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New Inventories

• No OTB/OTW scenarios
• Now assumes CAIR in place
• Forecasts DO NOT include estimates of BART source
  reductions
• Following slides do not include revised onroad
  source emissions
• These are processed in SMOKE and are currently
  being aggregated for summary purposes

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State Totals 2002 Typical BaseG
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State Totals 2009 BaseG
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State Totals 2018 BaseG
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Stacked Bar Chart Key
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BaseF vs. BaseG
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Source Type 2002 Typical Emissions Change from
BaseF to BaseG ()
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Source Type 2018 Emissions Change from BaseF to
BaseG ()
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Modeling Schedule Status
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SMOKE Modeling

• 2002 Typical
• 36/12km both complete
• 2009
• 36/12km in progress
• 2018
• Expected to begin week of 9/11/2006
• 2002 Actual
• Expected to begin week of 9/28/2006

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CMAQ Modeling

• 2002 Typical
• 36/12km both underway
• 2009
• Expected to begin week of 9/11/2006
• 2018
• Expected to begin week of 9/28/2006
• 2002 Actual
• Expected to begin week of 10/12/2006

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Questions?
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State Specific NOx/SO2 BaseF vs. BaseG Comparisons
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