Victorian energy demand and energy security

1
Victorian energy demand and energy security

• Marianne Lourey
• Executive Director, Energy Earth Resources
  Policy Division
• 9 July 2008

2
Overview

• Victorian energy policy objectives
• Electricity forecasts
• Gas forecasts
• Threats to security of supply

3
Victorias energy policy objectives

• Ensure an efficient and secure energy system
• Ensure those supplies are delivered reliably and
  safely
• Ensure consumers can access energy at affordable
  prices
• Ensure our energy supplies and the way we use
  them are environmentally sustainable and in
  particular less greenhouse intensive

4
Electricity forecasts
5
Summer maximum demand forecasts (medium growth
scenario)
10 POE Low growth 1.4 per annum Medium
growth 2.1 per annum High growth 2.9
per annum
Source Victorian Annual Planning Report 2008, p.
66
6
Summer maximum demand forecasts (medium growth
scenario)
Source Victorian Annual Planning Report 2008, p.
67
7
Population growth (medium growth)
Source Victorian Electricity Forecast Report
2008, p. 25
8
Energy forecasts
Low growth 0.4 per annum Medium growth 1.2
per annum High growth 2.1 per annum
Source Victorian Annual Planning Report 2008, p.
69
9
Energy forecasts
Source Victorian Annual Planning Report 2008, p.
70
10
Contribution of wind generation to meet energy
forecast
Source Victorian Annual Planning Report 2008, p.
74
11
Contribution of wind generation to maximum demand
(10 POE)
Source Victorian Annual Planning Report 2008, p.
73
12
Relevant government policies

• Emissions Trading Scheme
• Renewable energy target schemes
• Victorian 5-star building regulations
• More stringent Minimum Equipment Performance
  Standards
• Victorian Energy Efficiency Target (VEET) scheme
• Roll out of smart meters

13
Gas forecasts
14
Peak day system demand forecast
Medium growth, excludes Iona withdrawals, GPG
demand and exports
Source Victorian Annual Planning Report 2008, p.
77
15
Medium GPG demand growth
Source Victorian Annual Planning Report 2008, p.
80
16
Annual system demand (including GPG) (PJ)
Source Victorian Annual Planning Report 2008, p.
82
17
Threats to security of supply

• Growth in demand
• Drought
• Emissions trading scheme

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Growth in demand
Actual maximum demand in 2007/08 9,818 MW
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Drought
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Drought Blue Rock Dam

• Storage capacity 208 GL
• Current storage level 147 GL
• Storage level July 2007 120 GL

21
Emissions trading scheme

• Issues critical for Victoria
• Practical, balanced and stable transition
• Investment in abatement technologies

22
Questions