Environmental Risks

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Environmental Risks
Environment, societies and climate
Charles Fontaine, septembre 2005
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Summary

• I. General presentation
• Interaction scheme
• Concepts
• II. Facts, cases, events
• III. Issue
• IV. Climatic theories
• V. Actions and regulations
• International
• European
• France
• VI. General interrogations

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I. General Presentation
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Interaction Scheme
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(No Transcript)
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II. Facts, cases, events
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Global warming consequences (1)

• UNFAVORABLES (RISKS)
• increase of sea levels (due to melting of
  glaciers)
• more turbulent atmosphere (hurricanes and storms,
  increasing insurance costs )
• change in traditional distribution of agriculture
  crops (with winners and/or losers)
• change in distribution of endemic diseases (
  palladium)

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Global warming consequences (2)

• FAVORABLE (OPPORTUNITIES)
• north pole to become an international maritime
  road (researched since 2 centuries)
• soil fertility of northern countries and other,
  presently non favored
• decrease of death rate in middle and high
  latitudes
• less consumption due to global warming

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Key figures
Tropical deforestation 50
Dryness 38 countries in 2025
150 000 deaths
CO2 3,3 Md/year
Ice-barrier -10km thickness -31km surface
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III. Issues
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Main questions

• How society copes with climatic risk ?
• Theories and appraisals ?
• Measures and regulation ?

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Climatic theories
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Raise temperatures
Variations in the annual average temperature of
the Northern hemisphere on the surface

• Red curve according to measurements by
  thermometer (recent measurements) .
• Blue curve according to indirect measurements
  (rings of the trees, corals, carrots glacial) and
  the historical files (old datas).

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Role of the solar eruptions
Striking report since 1960, the temperature
curve and the temperatures curve in response to
the solar tasks diverge. The variation raise
clearly and is indisputable today.
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Cast iron of the icecap since 1979
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The Gulf Stream
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The Gulf Stream
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A new glacial era ?
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Limit of climatic theories

• Difficulty to predict
• Climatology is a recent science
• Missing data
• gt Constant evolution of the climatic models

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V. Societies and climate

• ACTIONS AND REGULATIONS

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A. The International level
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1. International measures
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2. The Kyoto Convention

• focused on gases emission.
• logical international aspect as the ozone layer
  damaging is not linked with the place where gases
  are emitted. Typical global public good.

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a/ Kyoto general principles

• Greenhouse gases (GHG) emission quotas
• Annex B countries are meant to reduce their
  collective annual emissions by 5.2 percent below
  the 1990 benchmark levels during the "commitment
  period" of 2008 2012
• Flexibility mechanisms are set for countries to
  meet emission reduction targets
• joint implementation (JT gt MOC in french)
• a clean development mechanism (CDM gt MDP in
  french)
• emission trading

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b/ Kyoto practical application

• Emitter industries should give a quota emission
  quantity to government every year
• Governments distribute freely this quotas each
  year
• Industries exceeding its quotas quantity must
  pay the equivalent of the quotas exceeded
• The system is based on the hypothesis that
  industries may adopt 2 different attitudes
• those willing to insource the cost and to make
  profit on the quotas selling to others firms
• those not willing to change their behaviour

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c/ Kyoto convention limits

• Limit in principlemarket supposed to regulate
  the environment through quotas
• Limit of actors - developing countries are not
  to be implied before 2012 - the biggest polluter
  have not signed the protocol
• Limit of actionmost polluting activities not
  taken into account Transport, heating,
  agriculture
• Limit of the mechanism- CDM incites northern
  countries to help the most polluter of ² southern
  countries in order to earn quotas?- But, the
  most polluter are not the most affected
  countries. (Micropolinesies, Inuit are
  already affected by climate changes)

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B. The European Level
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Community strategy post Kyoto

• OBJECTIVE
• To develop a Community strategy for achieving the
  targets laid down in the Kyoto protocol and the
  Buenos Aires Action Plan
• COMMUNITY MEASURE
• Communication of 3 June 1998 from the Commission
  to the Council and the European Parliament -
  Climate change - Towards an EU post-Kyoto
  strategy. COM(98) 353 final
• Communication of 19 May 1999 from the Commission
  to the Council and the European Parliament -
  Preparing for implementation of the Kyoto
  Protocol. COM(1999) 230 final

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EU-greenhouse gas emissions until 2002 and
projections until 2010
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Community strategy post Kyoto

• Community action to fulfil the obligations
• development of a strategy for all sectors of
  activity which produce pollution
• setting an interim target for 2005
• establishing an external dimension

• Initiatives in
• Energy
• transport
• Agriculture
• industry

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Mechanism for monitoring greenhouse gas emissions

• Act
• Decision 280/2004/EC of 11 February 2004
  concerning a mechanism for monitoring Community
  greenhouse gas emissions and for implementing the
  Kyoto Protocol.
• The Decision establishes a mechanism designed to
• monitor in the Member States all anthropogenic
  greenhouse gas emissions that deplete the ozone
  layer
• evaluate progress made in this field to ensure
  compliance with the Community's commitments
• implement the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol
• ensure that information reported by the Community
  to the UNFCCC Secretariat is complete

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Greenhouse gas emission in CO²
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Greenhouse gas emission in CO²

• Act
• Directive 2003/87/EC of 13 October 2003
  establishing a scheme for greenhouse gas emission
  allowance trading within the Community and
  amending Council Directive 96/61/EC
• Summary
• This Directive establishes a Community greenhouse
  gas emission trading scheme from 1 January 2005.
  In this context, "allowance" means the
  entitlement to emit a tonne of carbon dioxide or
  an amount of any other greenhouse gas with an
  equivalent global warming potential during a
  specified period
• A limit
• As a result, the more quotas a country allow, the
  more competitive it is.

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C. The French Level

• THE FRENCH COMMITMENT IN THE CLIMATIC CHANGE

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1. Frances situation
French commitment in Kyoto protocol 565 MteCO2
in 2010
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2. Frances actions

•  Plan Climat s implementation (July 2004)

• Complementary measures about Sustainable
  Development (March 2005) measures for energy
  savings and non polluting transport (Sept 2005)

• Integration of the fight against climate change
  in a law setting the orientations of energetic
  policy (Jul 2005)

• Adaptation strategy in order to limit climatic
  change impacts

• Working group ( Facteur 4 )

• Financial contributions to international
  cooperation

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3. Plan Climat Results (1/3)
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3. Plan Climat Results (2/3)
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3. Plan Climat Results (3/3)
(7) Territorial  Plan Climat 
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General interrogations

• a broader view

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societies style need to be questioned and
changed ?

• Environmental policies might be harmonized on
  the international level

• trading and environmentmust be linked in
  international agreements

• markets liberalisation have bad effects on
  environment?

• Developing countries must be implied in Kyoto
• but EVERYBODY have the right to be offered a
  better futureto live in a DEVELOPED country

• Is development synonymous with pollution?

• The stowaway matter (who has an interest in
  managing the pollution?)

governments must inform and educate populations

• ecological dumping matter

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BIBLIOGRAPHIE

• OUVRAGES
• Survie au développement, Serge Latouche
• Mille et une nuit, Paris, 2004
• Mal de Terre, Science ouverte, Hubert Reeves
• 20 Défis pour la planète, 20 ans pour y faire
  face, Jean-François Richard
• Dictionnaire des risques, Yves Dupont , Paris
  2003
• Le développement durable, une perspective pour le
  XXIème siècle, sous la direction de J.P. Maréchal
  et B. Quenault
• Lhumanité saisie par leffet de serre, La
  recherche, P. Thuillier
• REVUES
• Écologie le grand défi, le Monde diplomatique,
  juin-juillet 2005
• Le risque climatique, la Recherche, 17 novembre
  2004
• Sauver la planète, Sciences Humaines, hors série,
  juillet-août 2005
• JOURNAUX
• La Tribune, , 29/11/05,
• Le Monde, , 29/11/05, 1/12/05,