HAP

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HAP

• Demography, Economic Growth and Modernity
• Dr Szreter

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• The Demographic Transition Model
• Source P. Haggett, Geography. A Global Synthesis
  (2001), p.192

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Giovanni Federico, Feeding the World (Princeton
2005), p.1

• From 1800 to 2000 the world population has
  risen about six- to seven-fold, from less than
  one billion to six billion. Yet world
  agricultural production has increased
  substantially faster- at the very least, tenfold
  in the same period. Nowadays people are better
  fed than in the past each person in the world
  has, in theory, 2,800 calories available, with a
  minimum of some 2,200 in sub-Saharan Africa.
  Famines, which haunted pre-industrial times, have
  disappeared from most of the world.

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Abdel R. Omran, The epidemiologic transition a
theory of the epidemiology of population change
Milbank Memorial Fund Quarterly 29 (1971),
509538.

• 1. The Age of Pestilence and Famine when
  mortality is high and fluctuating, thus
  precluding sustained population growth. In this
  stage the average life expectancy at birth is low
  and variable, vacillating between 20 and 40
  years.
• 2. The Age of Receding Pandemics when mortality
  declines progressively and the rate of decline
  accelerates as epidemic peaks become less
  frequent or disappear. The average life
  expectancy at birth increases steadily from
  about 30 to about 50 years. Population growth is
  sustained and begins to describe an exponential
  curve.
• 3. The Age of Degenerative and Man-Made Diseases
  when mortality continues to decline and
  eventually approaches stability at a relatively
  low level. The average life expectancy at birth
  rises gradually until it exceeds 50 years. It is
  during this stage that fertility becomes the
  crucial factor in population growth.

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John McNeill, Something New Under the Sun.
(Penguin 2000)

• The world economy probably grew 8-fold in value
  between 1500 and 1900 with world population
  slightly more than tripling to 1.6 billion.
• Between 1900 and 2000 world population nearly
  quadrupled to about 6 billion. Meanwhile the
  global economy was nearly 15 times larger in real
  value in 2000 than in 1900.
• In 1900 only 1 in 7 people, lived in cities (256
  million). In 2000 this had risen
  disproportionately to 1 in 2 of the worlds
  populace (3 billion).
• With urbanisation rising 3 times faster than the
  rapid general population growth and with the
  associated enormous rise in per capita economic
  productivity, total energy use had increased
  16-fold between 1900 and 2000. Every human on
  the planet was using on average 4 times more
  energy per head in 2000 than in 1900,
  notwithstanding the fact that there were four
  times as many people doing so.
• McNeill estimates that humans have used 10 times
  more energy in the 100 years since 1900 than in
  all the previous 1,000 years put together. In
  the 1990s the average global citizen deployed
  about 20 energy slaves, meaning 20 human
  equivalents working 24 hours a day, 365 days a
  year. (p.15). However the average American in
  1990s had 75 such slaves, while the average
  Bangladeshi had less than 1 (p.16).
• By 2000 the 6 billion alive were also each
  consuming over twice as much of the worlds
  limited supplies of freshwater than their great
  grand-parents had done in 1900. And, of course,
  carbon dioxide emissions had also risen by a
  factor of 13.

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• As the Chair of the W.H.O. Commission on the
  Social Determinants of Health, Professor Sir
  Michael Marmot, said with his first words at the
  Press conference in Geneva on August 28th 2008,
  at which he handed over the Report to Dr Margaret
  Chan, Director-General of the W.H.O.
• The news of the Report, the central message,
  is that a toxic combination of poor social
  policies, unfair economic arrangements and bad
  politics is responsible for most of the avoidable
  health inequities we see in the world today.

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The scale of todays inequities in life
expectancies remains enormous
Both globally between nations Female life
expectancy in 2000 Botswana 43 Japan 86
years And even between citizens in the most
developed nations Male life expectancy in 2000
in two districts of Glasgow, UK Glasgow (Lenzie
North) 82 years Glasgow (Calton) 54 years.

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Joseph A. Schumpeter, Capitalism, Socialism and
Democracy (New YorkHarper,1975) orig.pub.1942,
p. 82.

• Creative Destruction
• the history of the productive apparatus of a
  typical farm, from the beginnings of the
  rationalization of crop rotation, plowing and
  fattening to the mechanized thing of
  todaylinking up with elevators and railroadsis
  a history of revolutions. So is the history of
  the productive apparatus of the iron and steel
  industry from the charcoal furnace to our own
  type of furnace, or the history of the apparatus
  of power production from the overshot water wheel
  to the modern power plant, or the history of
  transportation from the mailcoach to the
  airplane. The opening up of new markets, foreign
  or domestic, and the organizational development
  from the craft shop and factory to such concerns
  as U.S. Steel illustrate the same process of
  industrial mutationif I may use that biological
  termthat incessantly revolutionizes the economic
  structure from within, incessantly destroying the
  old one, incessantly creating a new one. This
  process of Creative Destruction is the essential
  fact about capitalism.

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Modernity as Creative Destruction? The Four
Horsemen still very active in the Late 20th and
Early 21st Centuries

• Pestilence- malaria, tuberculosis, HIV-AIDs,
  infant diarrhoea, and the Flu threat
• War apart from the two world wars, a great many
  others, both international e.g. just those
  involving formal US troop deployments and
  engagement since 1960 Dominican Republic,
  Vietnam, Cambodia, Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan and
  less publicised intra-national, e.g The Congo
  Wars since 1998 causing millions of deaths from
  starvation and disease
• Famine China 1927, 1943, 1958-62 (Grear
  Leap) USSR 1921-2, 1932-4 (Holodomor or
  Ukrainian Famine), India (Bengal) 1943, (Bihar)
  1965-7 Biafra, West Africa 1967-70, Sahel
  (Mauritania, Mali) 1968-72 Bangladesh 1974
  Cambodia 1975-79 Ethiopia 1958, 1973, 1983-5,
  1998-2000 Somalia 1991-3 North Korea 1995-9
  Sudan 1998 2003-8 (Darfur) Zimbabwe 2006-8
• Death dire species extinctions predictions from
  WWF due to both global warming and threats to
  biodiversity due to over-intensive and
  mono-culture forms of exploitation of both land
  and oceans, mining the natural environment
  instead of harvesting and conserving

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