World Energy Outlook: Near and Mid Term Projections

1
World Energy Outlook Near and Mid Term
Projections

• Dr. Mark Rodekohr
• Energy Information Administration
• September, 1999

2
Near Term Projections

• From the present to 2000.
• Concentration on the World Oil Market.

3
Retail Motor Gasoline Prices
(Monthly 1994-2000)
2.00
1.80
1.60
1.40
1.20
1.00
Dollars per Gallon
0.80
0.60
Projections
0.40
0.20
0.00
199401
199407
199501
199507
199601
199607
199701
199707
199801
199807
199901
199907
200001
200007
Regular, Self-Service Cash
Sources History EIA Projections Short-Term
Energy Outlook, September 1999
4
Monthly World Crude Oil Prices
30.00
History
Cases
West Texas Intermediate
High
25.00
20.00
Mid
Import Cost
Current Dollars per Barrel
(RAC)
15.00
Low
Price Difference WTI vs.
10.00
Imported RAC
(Dollars per Barrel)
1995 1.26
5.00
1996 1.54
1997 2.06
1998(e) 2.37
0.00
1999
1998
1997
1996
2000
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
Sources History EIA Projections Short-Term
Energy Outlook, August 1999
5
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6
(No Transcript)
7
OPEC Compliance to Agreed Upon Cuts in Production
8
Mid-Term Projections

• While all energy markets are discussed the
  transportation sector is emphasized due to its
  importance to U.S. markets
• Projections go through 2020.

9
World Energy Consumption, 1970-2020
Source EIA, International Energy Outlook 1999
10
World Gross Domestic Product by Region, 1970-2020
Source EIA, International Energy Outlook 1999
11
World Energy Consumption by Region, 1970-2020
Source EIA, International Energy Outlook 1999
12
World Energy Consumption by Fuel Type, 1970-2020
Source EIA, International Energy Outlook 1999
13
World Carbon Emissions by Region, 1970-2020
Source EIA, International Energy Outlook 1999
14
Petroleum Use for Transportation and Other
Purposes, 1980-2020
Source EIA, International Energy Outlook 1999
15
Transportations Share of Primary Energy Use,
1980-2020
Source EIA, International Energy Outlook 1999
16
Transportation Energy Use by Region, 1990, 1996,
and 2020
Source EIA, International Energy Outlook 1999
17
World Transportation Energy Use by Fuel, 1980-2020
Source EIA, International Energy Outlook 1999
18
Transportation Energy Use in the Industrialized
Countries, 1980-2020
Source EIA, International Energy Outlook 1999
19
Transportation Energy Use in the EE/FSU, 1980-2020
Source EIA, International Energy Outlook 1999
20
Transportation Energy Use by Fuel in the
Developing World, 1980-2020
Source EIA, International Energy Outlook 1999
21
Transportation Energy Use by Mode, 1980-2020
Source EIA, International Energy Outlook 1999
22
Transportation Energy Use by Mode in the
Industrialized Countries, 1980-2020
Source EIA, International Energy Outlook 1999
23
Transportation Energy Use by Mode in the EE/FSU,
1980-2020
Source EIA, International Energy Outlook 1999
24
Transportation Energy Use by Mode in the
Developing World, 1980-2020
Source EIA, International Energy Outlook 1999
25
Road Vehicle Populations by Region, 1996 and 2020
Source EIA, International Energy Outlook 1999
26
Annual Energy Use Per Capita in the
Transportation Sector, by Region, 1980, 1996, and
2020
Source EIA, International Energy Outlook 1999
27
Motorization in Selected Countries and Regions,
1995
Source EIA, International Energy Outlook 1999
28
Motorization Rates in Selected Regions and
Countries, 1996 and 2020
Source EIA, International Energy Outlook 1999
29
Motorization Trends in Selected Industrialized
Countries, 1980-2020
Source EIA, International Energy Outlook 1999
30
Motorization Trends in Selected Developing
Countries, 1980-2020
Source EIA, International Energy Outlook 1999
31
Vehicle Population in Three Economic Growth
Cases, 2020
Source EIA, International Energy Outlook 1999
32
EIAs Outlook for the International
Transportation Sector