Population masculinization in Asia. Regional trends

1
Population masculinization in Asia.Regional
trends

• CZ Guilmoto, IRD, Paris
• Hanoi,
• 20 December 2007

2

• An overview of the problem
• Growing male proportion in Asia
• Demographic scenarios and implications

3
The sex-ratio story in a nutshell

• Fertility declines, but son preference remains
  strong across Asian countries
• New methods appear to influence the sex of ones
  children
• Sex ratio at birth (SRB) shoots up as a result
  and births include now 5-20 more boys than
  expected
• In 20 years, a marriage squeeze of similar
  proportions will occur with excess young adult
  men
• Family systems and society will undergo deep
  adjustments with serious consequences to men as
  well as to women

4
A brief technical reminder

• Sex ratio 100 males /females
• 1 Sex ratio and age
• Highest at conception (primary sex ratio)
• Decreases till delivery through foetal
  mortality (secondary sex ratio)
• Decreases during infancy and childhood, and even
  faster during adulthood and old age through male
  excess mortality
• 2. Overall population sex ratio
• Affected by SRB (sex ratio at birth) and sex
  patterns of mortality, as well as by the overall
  age structure (the older the population, the more
  feminine)
• Especially sensitive to migration differentials
  by sex

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Biology, social and health conditions
Infant and child mortality
Spontaneous and induced abortions
Sex ratio at birth
Sex ratio at conception
Child sex ratio
Conception
Childhood
Pregnancy and birth
Sex-selective abortions
Female infanticide
Sex selection before conception
Female excess infant and child mortality
Discriminatory behaviour
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Technical issues

• 1 Sex ratio at birth
• Seldom available for want of proper registration
  data
• 2 Sex ratio among children
• Easily computed from census data
• Combines the effect of pre- and post-natal
  gender discrimination
• 3 Sex ratio among adults
• Often heavily affected by migration
  differentials
• 4 Measurement and sensitivity
• Sex ratio often not meaningful for less than
  10,000 people
• 5.Data availability
• Faulty civil registration, missing censuses,
  surveys with small samples

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Sex ratio deterioration (and fertility decline)
two scenarios
high
2 masculinization
sex ratio at birth
missing girls
normal
1 no change
Fertility decline
high fertility
low fertility
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Affected regions

• Already highly affected Central and Eastern
  China, Taiwan, North-West India, South Korea,
  Caucasus
• Increasing sex ratio at birth rest of India,
  Vietnam, West China
• Might soon be affected Nepal, Bangladesh,
  Pakistan, etc.

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Fertility levels, 2005
10

• An overview of the problem
• Growing male proportion in Asia
• Demographic scenarios and implications

11
Growing male proportion in Asia

• High and stable population sex ratio in several
  Asian countries
• Increased male proportions among births since
  1980
• Caused by rising numbers of sex-selective
  abortions combined to excess mortality among
  girls

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A male-dominated continent

• Today Asia has 2.1 billion men and 1.9 b women, a
  sex ratio of 105 men per 100 women. But if it had
  the same sex ratio as in the rest of the world
  (97), Asia would have 163 million more women
• This gender gap is due to many reasons such age
  structure, migration, and especially to past and
  present excess female mortality starting from
  childhood
• But rising sex ratio at birth in Asia has now
  become a major component to this deficit of women

13
Overall sex ratio in 2005 in Asia (selected
countries)
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The old patterns of gender discrimination

• Strong son preference
• But age-old methods
• folk methods to conceive sons, female
  infanticide, neglect of girls
• Limited reliability and social constraints
• High fertility does not require intense gender
  discrimination
• Moderate increase in proportions of boys

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The new patterns of discrimination

• New prenatal sex determination technology
• Easier access to abortion
• Limited number of children
• Rise in proportions of boys born as parity
  progresses

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Child sex ratio, selected countries, 1950-2005
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Main determinants of increase in child sex ratio

• Abnormal sex ratio at birth due to sex selection
• Excess female mortality among infants and
  children due to neglect of girls

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Sex ratio at birth, region, 1950-2005
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Korea and Sri Lanka, 1965-2005
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Excess female child mortality, 2005
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Significant variations in sex ratio at birth

• Sex ratio and birth order and gender composition
  of children
• variations across regions, according to
  socioeconomic status or education levels, and to
  cultural or religious features

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Sex ratio and birth order, China, 1990
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Variations within countries

• SRB is significantly higher in
• Regional clusters such as Northwest India, East
  and Central China, Vietnam, South Korea etc.
• Among Indian Sikhs, Chinese Han, etc.
• Among urban and better-off Indians, rural Chinese
  etc.

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Geographical variations in India, 2001
Child sex ratio, India, 2001 (districts)
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Sex ratio at birth among selected ethnic groups,
China, 2000
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• An overview of the problem
• Growing male proportion in Asia
• Demographic scenarios and implications

27
Projection hypotheses

• 1 Projection for China and India, 2000-2050
• 2 Same mortality and fertility as in United
  Nations projections
• 3 SRB in Asia in the future
• worsening ?
• high and stable ?
• or falling down ?

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Three scenarios of future SRB
SRB
Time
29
Overall sex ratio, 2000-50
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Male surplus deficit in the 20-49 age group,
2030-50 (in million)
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Impact on the overall sex ratio in 2050

• If SRB declines (High-Low) till 2030
• The overall sex ratio remains above 100 in 2050
  in China (104) and India (103)
• 2. If SRB remains till 2050 at its current levels
• The overall sex ratio rises to 108 in China and
  106 in India
• 3. The sex ratio will increase further to 115-117
  if SRB keeps on rising

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Impact on the population aged 20-49 in 2040-50

• If SRB declines (High-Low) till 2030
• There will be in 2040 33 millions more men than
  women in China and 25 in India
• 2. If SRB remains the same
• The male surplus will rise to 40 m in China and
  28 m. in India
• 3. If SRB keeps on rising, the surplus of men
  would exceed 55 m. in 2050

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Global impact of sex ratio scenarios

• 1 Lower population with higher SRB
• 2 Overall sex ratio remains masculine till 2050
  in all scenarios
• 3 Considerable male surplus among young adults,
  which are too large to be offset by cross-border
  migration
• 4 Severity of the crisis in proportion to
  duration and magnitude of the SRB increase

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Implications on men and women

• Family structure
• Changing family composition and patterns
• The marriage squeeze
• Increased migration of unmarried men and women
• Trafficking in women, gender-based violence and
  demand for commercial sex
• Impact felt disproportionally on underprivileged
  male population
• Decreasing female participation and political
  weight