Status and Plans for the RSA LAPSMM5 Implementation July 2005

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Status and Plans for the RSA LAPS/MM5
Implementation July 2005

• John McGinley, Steve Albers, Ed Szoke, Dan
  Birkenheuer
• NOAA Forecast Systems Laboratory

In collaboration with the Cooperative Institute
for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA), Colorado
State University, Fort Collins, Colorado
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Overview

• Review of System Design
• Case Studies - Verification
• Work Accomplished Since 2004 TIM
• Recommended Schedule
• Issues
• Discussion

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System Design Review

• Basic requirements
• New 24-h forecast every 6 hours
• High spatial resolution (1 km objective)
• Support launch weather operations and range
  safety requirements for dispersion modeling
• Integrate with display system (AWIPS)
• Trades considered
• Size of domain and nesting options
• Forecast length vs. scale predictability
• Computational resources vs. cost-benefit
• Future upgrade path

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Basic Solution

• LAPS coupled with MM5 NWP model
• Use diabatic initialization (hot start)
• Utilize parallel code on Linux cluster
• Integrate with AWIPS in a modular fashion

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AWIPS Integration
NOAAPORT
LDAD
Obs/Radar/Sat/NCEP
LAPS Anal/Fcst Grids
AWIPS Data Server
AWIPS Workstation
Modeling Server
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Hardware Configuration

• Linux Cluster Modeling Server
• 1 master/8 compute nodes (18 processors)
• Dual P-III 1GHz, 1GB RAM on each node
• 60GB RAID array on front-end
• Myrinet inter-connect
• Interacts with AWIPS DS via NFS
• LAPS analyses and 2-h MM5 update forecast run on
  master node
• 6-hourly MM5 and post-processing use compute
  nodes

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LAPS Domain Configuration

• Triple Nest Domain
• 97x97
• 10.0/3.3/1.1 km ?x
• 10km for Model Init
• 3.3/1.1 for NowCasting
• LAPS Runs
• Hourly analyses
• 41 Pressure levels
• Runs at H20 min
• Available at H30 min

WR
ER
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RSA LAPS Data Sources

• National Data (NOAAPORT SBN Feed)
• Eta (Grids 211, 212, and 215)
• Regional narrowband WSR-88D reflectivity
• GOES imagery (Vis, SWIR, 2 LWIR)
• MDCARS
• RAOBs
• METARs/Ship Reports/Buoys
• National Profiler Network

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RSA LAPS Data Sources

• Sea Surface Temperature Data
• NCEP internet FTP feed
• GFS model

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RSA LAPS Data Sources

• Local Data (via LDAD)
• Local wideband WSR-88D (Z and Vr)
• Local ASOS Observations
• 50/915 MHz Wind Profilers
• MiniSODAR Wind Profiles
• RASS
• Tower observations
• AMPS Soundings
• Local MM5 forecast grids

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MM5 Forecast Model

• MM5 v3 used for RSA application
• Upgraded to release 3.5 in June 2002
• FSL modifications for diabatic initialization
• FSL-developed runs scripts suitable for
  operations
• Concurrent post-processing
• Supports multiple output formats
• Allows viewing on workstation as model runs
• Hourly temporal output

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MM5 Forecast Model

• Two configurations for RSA
• Update run to provide first guess for LAPS
• Used for downscaling national model
• Runs every hour out to 2 h on master node
  (serial)
• Initialized with national first guess (Eta
  forecast) and NCEP SST
• Domain 1 (10km) only
• Not displayed on AWIPS
• Forecast run used for operational forecasts
• Diabatically intialized with LAPS
• Runs every 6 hours
• Triple nest (10/3/1.1) with forecasts out to
  24/12/9

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MM5 Run Configuration(Development System Config)

• 30-second timestep
• MRF PBL Scheme
• Explicit Schultz II microphysics on all domains
• 2-way feedback between nests
• Domain 1 initialized with LAPS (diabatic)
• Domains 2 and 3 interpolated from parent
• Lateral boundaries provided by NCEP Eta

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0-3 h QPF Verification
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0-6 h QPF Verification
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0-12 h QPF Verification
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JAX WRF QPF Verification
0600 UTC 3, 6, and 9-h QPF Verification, 1 Oct
03 thru 4 May 04
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Vertical Level Configuration
41 s Levels
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LAPS-MM5 Production Cycle
MM5 Forecast (Every 6 h) - 10km to 24h - 3.3 to
12h - 1.1 to 9h
National Model Forecast (Eta via SBN)
Lateral Boundary Conditions
2-9 h Forecast for IC/LBC
Hourly Cycle
MM5 Update Cycle (10km)
1-h Forecast for First Guess
Diabatic Init. Cond.
Observations via SBN and LDAD
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MM5 Forecast Run Timeline
Actual Hour
Valid Hour
All 3 Domains (2.31 Ratio)
Run time based on 12 processors for model 1
processor for each post job
2 Domains (7.81 Ratio)
1 Domain (361 Ratio)
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Cape Canaveral 6-hour QPF on 1-km Grid and Radar
Verification9 Feb 04
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RSA Examples

• Eastern Range
• June 8, 2005

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Series of plots for 15z 10 km run, model
reflectivity is heavy cyan contours, observed is
image
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Analysis and beginning of the 21z/10 km run.
Doesnt get echoes to start.
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15z 3 km run
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15z 1 km run at 1 km cells do develop faster
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Next 2 are from 09z run. Seeing if it got the
overnight land breeze line off the east coast.
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Build History

• RSA LAPS/MM5 V1 Dec 2001
• Initial installation at WR
• RSA LAPS/MM5 V2 Aug 2002
• Initial installation at ER
• Included easy install CD, provided to LMMS
• RSA LAPS/MM5 V2.1 July 2003
• Delivered to LMMS on CD
• RSA LAPS/MM5 V2.2 July 2004
• Delivered to LMMS on CD

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Current Status

• Current RSA status
• Fully adapted to AS 2.1 OS
• Testing criteria delivered to LM
• Model status
• Improved Schultz microphysics
• Shallow Cu scheme

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Current Activities

• Current activities
• Data failure test simulated at FSL
• /data/fxa disk mount disabled for 40 minutes
• Model forecast continued to run with degraded
  analysis
• Analyses were interrupted, changes since made to
  help prevent this

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Next few month deliverables

• Deliverables (next few months)
• New LAPS/MM5 build in July 2005
• Accommodates AS 2.1/2.3
• Deliver installation CD
• Test CD installation needed? (what procedure)?

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Future Deliverables

• Future Deliverables
• MM5 to WRF transition
• New modeler on staff July 18, 2005

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Deficiencies in Build V2.1

• Deficiencies
• TKE PBL schemes in MM5 under-predict diurnal
  temperature range
• Microphysics require saturation in cloudy grid
  boxes

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Accomplishments Since June 2004 TIM

• LAPS Analysis Improvements
• QC flag codes 13-20 now interpreted
• Edit flag now checked for AMPS data
• Dense SODAR levels processing improved
• Met TOWER QC now applied

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Accomplishments Since June 2004 TIM

• LAPS Analysis Improvements
• Surface analysis parameters adjusted based on
  study of Hurricane Charlie
• 3-D reflectivity mapping improved to minimize
  artifacts in high-resolution domains
• Moisture analysis component changes to use GOES
  gradient structure

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LAPS Moisture Variational Step now Relies on
Satellite Gradients

• Other aspects of the moisture analysis have not
  changed
• The International H2O Project identified problems
  with satellite derived product moisture (too
  moist, or more specifically moist biased)
• Two approaches are now underway to address this
  problem
• Correct the bias problem in the GOES moisture
  data
• Modify the analysis system to ignore this
  moisture bias by using moisture gradients from
  this source

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The new approach is to utilize only satellite
gradients in the analysis
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Accomplishments Since June 2004 TIM

• MM5 Forecast Improvements
• Implementing daily GFS SST analyses
• Provides better forecasts than pseudo-SST
• Provides a first guess for LAPS SST analysis
• Added TKE diagnosis to post-processor
• Allows use of better MRF PBL while still meeting
  need for TKE field for HYPACT integration
• Updated scripts for new OS (Nov 2004)
• Implemented new Schultz II microphysics
• Deactivated K-F cumulus parameterization

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Accomplishments Since June 2004 TIM

• Verification Package
• Surface observations vs. MM5 forecast
• Requires MySQL database
• Interactive query capability
• Command line or web based
• User customization options
• Being set up on development system for 10-km MM5
  grids
• Still testing interface scripts

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Recommended Schedule

• Deliver LAPS/RSA v3.0 July 2005
• CD delivery to LMMS with installation scripts
• Includes all changes discussed previously
• Deliver LAPS/RSA v3.1 Jan 2006?
• Incorporate WRF forecast model
• 30-minute analysis cycle
• Adds AMPS ingest
• improved verification package

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Outstanding Issues

• FSL access to RTAMPS data
• Complete real-time data preferable to partial
  archived
• Helps evaluate spatial distribution and QC
  performance
• Analysis bulls-eyes and QC
• Land/sea weighting function
• NOAAPORT buoy data timing

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Outstanding Issues (cont)

• Additional SST testing
• Ingest /Analysis of Soil sensor data
• Interface to GOES Sounder on NOAAPORT?
• 30-min LAPS cycle

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Narrowband / Soil

• Narrowband (Level-III) radar
• AWIPS to LAPS NetCDF converter needs repair
• Soil moisture
• Overall Soil Moisture currently in Big File
• Add other soil related fields?
• What soil observations are at Ranges?
• Data formats?

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Verification

• Verification package
• Can run on more powerful headnode
• Requires another software package (MySQL)
• Web server running on headnode for interactive
  displays
• Forecasters use web browser to access
  verification info
• Product reliability monitor will be included

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Model output to AMU

• Model output to AMU
• Exportation of bigfile via ftp or LDAD
• Multiple options possible
• Should model grids be enlarged?
• More computer power may be needed for this

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SBN data limitations

• SBN data limitations
• Partially mitigated by use of NCEP SST
• LMMS EDS project should fully mitigate

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Summary

• July build on-track
• Improved LAPS analysis with additional local data
  and improved algorithms
• Better forecasts from new microphysics, better
  SST
• Apache server installed for verification display
  at ranges
• Continue planning for future

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Discussion?