The Way Ahead

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The Way Ahead
Effects-Based Operations
The Way Ahead
Dr. Ed Smith 703-465-3319 Boeing
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The Way Ahead
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Outline

• The why and what of EBO
• Complex Operations in the Cognitive Domain
• 3. Implications for Network Centric Operations

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1. The Whys of Effects-Based Operations

• US Drivers
• Asymmetric niche foes
• Seek to wear down US will by attacking changing
  vulnerabilities
• No boundary between war and peace
• Attrition approach wont work
• Multi-dimensional post 9/11 threat
• Man-pack weapons of mass destruction
• Rising importance of post conflict stabilization
  ops
• Allied Drivers
• Need force multiplier to balance diminishing
  numbers but..
• Network centric not enough
• Must not be limited to targeting precision weapns
• Must be applied to broad spectrum of real world
  ops
• Must focus on human dimension

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Why Symmetric vs. Asymmetric Competitors

• Symmetric Opponents have roughly equal means and
  will

Great Means Great Will
Great Means Great Will
vs.
Attrition-based Warfare Wearing Down the
Physical Capacity for War
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Why Asymmetric Niche Competitors
Opponents have unequal means and will
Large Power
Challenger
Little Means Great Will
Great Means Little Will ?
vs.
Two Different Asymmetries Two Different
Approaches
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Why Spectrum of Military Operations
Major Combat
Peace
War
Peace
Crisis
lesser included cases operations other than
war
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Why New Spectrum?
Major Combat
Post- Conflict
Peace
Crisis Response
Peace
Hostilities
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Why Approaching a Village

• Industrial Age Attrition-based Physical
  Targeting Problem
• Right targets, weapons, numbers, time, but
• Three ifs
• Major Combat Right ROE
• Known uniformed enemy
• No civilians
• Information Age Cognitive/Social Problem
• Right actions, right timing, right effects
• Complex situation, incomplete ROE
• No civil-military separation, human shields
• Whose cognitive domain?
• Multiple audiences
• Foe seeking media effect
• Interaction on-going
• No beginning or end
• Peace, crisis, war, post war, peace continuum

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• What
• Effects-Based Operations
• Coordinated sets of actions
• directed at shaping the
• behavior
• of friends, foes, and neutrals
• in peace, crisis, and war

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• Effects-Based Operations
• Two Main US Tracks
• Track One Effects-based Targeting
• Air Force School
• Precision strike to create non-linear
  psychological effects
• Major combat focus
• Track Two Effects-Based Operations
• Maneuverist School Special Forces/ Marine Corps
• Naval School Crisis Operations
• Actions to create psychological effects on
  observers
• Stimulus and response approach
• Focus Peace, crisis, war and post-conflict
  stabilization
• Applied national power

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3. Complex Operations in the Cognitive Domain
Institutional Culture
Social Structure
Government And Politics
History Culture
Societal Domain
Education
Economy
Religion

• Options
• Choices among alternatives
• Choices to wait
• Choices to seek information
• Choices to consult others

Mental Model

• Observer
• Cause and Effect
• Temporal relations
• Dynamic Futures

• Sensemaking
• Values
• Anticipated Futures
• Alternatives

Judgment
Prior Knowledge
Shared Awareness
Cognitive Domain
Planning
Directives
Information (data in context)
Information Domain
Synchronization
Data (representation)
Physical Domain
Action Objects/events
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Rules of EBO

• Actions create effects on any observer who can
  see them
• Effects occur simultaneously...
• ...on four different levels of military
  operations and
• ...in political, diplomatic, economic and
  military arenas
• Effects are cumulative and interrelated
• Effects are physical and psychological

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and Complexity

• Simple Linear systems Limited definable
  variables
• Causes and effects demonstrable, additive,
  repeatable
• Inputs/outputs proportional whole equals sum of
  parts
• Complex Non-linear systems Multiple
  interdependent variables
• Cause and effect not necessarily evident,
  replicable
• Inputs and outputs not proportional whole does
  not equal sum of the parts
• Complex Adaptive Systems
• Non-linear systems that change and adapt to
  stimuli without central direction
• Peace, crisis, war interactions between complex
  adaptive systems
• EBO pay-off derives from non-linearity-
• Small efforts to produce large results

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Complexity One Orchestrating Actions

• What will they see?
• Focus
• Force applied
• Scale
• Scope
• Timing
• speed
• duration
• synchronicity
• Visibility

What is done

How it is done
Tools For Shaping
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• Complexity Two Orchestrating Effects
• To do what? Kinds of Effects

• Destruction
• Physical Attrition
• Chaos/ Entropy
• Foreclosure
• Passive
• Active
• Shock
• Psychological
• Attrition

Overall Effect
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Complexity Three Managing Effects Cascades
First Cascade
Second Cascade
Physical Action Object/Event
Direct Physical Effect
First Indirect Physical Effect
Second Indirect Physical Effect
Indirect Physical Effect
Indirect Physical Effect
Indirect Physical effect
Indirect Psychological Effect
Other Observer
Indirect Psychological Effect
Indirect Psychological Effect
Indirect Psychological Effect
Indirect Psychological Effect
Indirect Psychological Effect
Indirect Psychological Effect
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Complexity Four Deconflicting Actions to Achieve
Unified National Effect
Strategic
Military
Economic
Political
Military Strategic
Theater
Sea
Air
Ground
Space
Operational
Tactical
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or a unified Coalition effect

Ally
U.S.
Strategic
Political
Economic
1 2 3
Military
Military Strategic
Theater
1 2 3
Ground
Ground
1 2 3
Sea
Air
Space
Operational
1 2 3
Tactical
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and Coordination over Time
Required Coordination
Peace Crisis Conflict Post Peace
Transition
Transition
Conflict
The Fedora Curve
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4. Implications for C2

• Challenges
• EBO inherently complex, non-linear
• New analytical paradigm
• Bounding vice quantifying the problem
• Put man back in the loop
• Where? Who? With what?
• Decision-aids
• Feedback
• Requires fusion of dissimilar information and
  knowledge
• Networking
• Opportunities
• EBO offers real potential
• For non-linear payoff from Network Centric
  investment
• For dealing with asymmetric adversaries
• For operations across spectrum of conflict

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to Second Generation Network Centric
Operations

• From Networks
• Faster targeting
• More efficient attrition and
• man out of the loop
• To Networking
• Effects-Based Operations
• Dealing with and Exploiting Complexity
• supporting the man in the loop

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Conclusions

• Post 9/11 world requires network-enabled EBO
• Asymmetric niche foes
• Operations across peace, crisis, hostilities
  spectrum
• Dealing with and exploiting non-linearity/
  complexity
• but EBO and Complexity pose challenges
• New modes of operational analysis and thinking
• New applications for technology
• Networking vice Networks
• New approach to acquisition