WELCOME TO THE NOAA THORPEX PI WORKSHOP

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WELCOME TO THE NOAA THORPEX PI WORKSHOP

• LOGISTICS
• Thanks for coming Sign-up sheet
• Location - Room 707, except 209 on Wednesday
  morning
• Food
• Refreshments at 8 am and am/pm breaks, thanks to
  Lisa Faunce!
• Lunch brought in Make selection by morning
  break
• Tue Sandwiches
• Wedn Pizza
• Thurs Sandwiches
• Dinner Tuesday night Which place should we go?
  How many?
• Topolino Italian buffet (18 all inclusive), 10
  mins, off MD Rt 5 S
• Local fish place (15-20 per meal off menu), 15
  mins, off MD Rt 5 S
• Presentations
• Give to Mary Hart asap for uploading onto PC
  web
• Plan for 20 min talks leave 5 mins for
  questions/discussion
• Announce when you turn the page help
  teleconference participants

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OUTLINE

• Logistics
• THORPEX program
• International
• NOAA
• Conveyor belt for transitioning research into
  operations
• Research grants other activities
• New NWP paradigm
• NOAA THORPEX Implementation Plan
• Historical overview

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WHAT IS THORPEX?

• 10-YEAR WMO-SPONSORED RESEARCH PROGRAM
• OBJECTIVE
• Accelerate improvements in skill utility of
  1-14 day high impact weather forecasts
• Weather forecast component of GEOSS
• RESEARCH AREAS
• Observing System
• Data Assimilation
• Predictability / NWP
• Socioeconomic Applications
• APPROACH
• Enhanced collaboration on national, regional,
  international levels
• Between research and operational communities
• Among experts working on four components of
  forecast process
• Within operational community Global Interactive
  Forecast System (GIFS)
• ORGANIZATION
• International level Under WMO IPO, 6 WGs, etc
  Michel Beland David Burridge

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NOAA THORPEX PROGRAM

• FOCUS
• Accelerate improvements in 3-14 day high impact
  probabilistic weather forecasts
• ORGANIZATION
• Under Weather Water Goal, STI, with link to
  EMP LFW
• NOAA THORPEX Executive Council Rick Rosen
• NOAA THORPEX Science Steering Committee Zoltan
  Toth
• APPROACH
• Grants External community (12 NOAA grants)
• Directed research - NOAA Labs
• Transition to operations Global Test Center
  (JCSDA link), NCEP - NAEFS
• Weather Climate link
• FUNDING
• 1.23M (Current) 2.3M (Presidents request)
  5M (Goal)

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PATH FROM THORPEX RESEARCH TO NOAA OPERATIONS
BASIC RESEARCH
APPLIED RESEARCH
TRANSITION TO OPERATIONS
NOAA OPERATIONS
PHASE
Answer Science Questions
Develop Methods
Prepare for Implementation
Generate Products
What?
External investigators
NOAA Laboratories
Global Test Center / NCEP
NCEP Central Operations
Who?
NSF, DOD, NASA
Financial Support?
NOAA THORPEX PROGRAM
NOAA NWS
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NOAA THORPEX RESEARCH GRANTS
GRANTS DISTRIBUTION

• University groups 5
• NCAR 1
• Private sector 2

NASA 1 (0) ONR/NRL 2 NOAA 1 (2)
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NOAA THORPEX ACTIVITIES

• RESEARCH PROJECTS
• Adaptive collection use of observations (PARC,
  OSSE) Thurs am
• Ensemble-based data assimilation Tue am-pm
• Representing model errors in ensemble
  forecasting Wedn am
• High impact modeling (enhanced resol., sea ice /
  wave, etc) Wedn pm
• Socioeconomic applications (IPY) Thurs pm
• PATH TO OPERATIONS
• North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS)
• MSCNMSMNWS multi-center ensemble
• Operational implementation in March/April 2006
• Prototype / component of future international
  GIFS system
• ESMF connection
• All research must directly connect with NAEFS
  system
• PERFORMANCE MEASURE
• Rate of improvement doubled in NAEFS
  probabilistic forecast scores
• PQPF
• Extreme temperature

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EXAMPLE FROM LAST SUNDAY - THORPEX QUESTIONS
ANIMATION

• Why forecast signal is lost beyond 10-day lead
  time?
• How can predictability be extended?
• Better/more observations?
• Better data assimilation scheme?
• Better numerical model?
• Better ensemble techniques?

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EXAMPLE FROM LAST SUNDAY - THORPEX QUESTIONS
ANIMATION

• Why forecast signal lost at 9-day lead?
• How can predictability be extended? Better
• Better/more observations?
• Better data assimilation scheme?
• Better numerical model?
• Better ensemble techniques?

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ANIMATION
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NEW THORPEX NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION PARADIGM
INTEGRATED DATA ASSIMILATION FORECASTING
GLOBAL OPERATIONAL
TEST CENTER
GLOBAL INTERACTIVE FORECAST SYSTEM (GIFS)
Days 15-60
NWS OPERATIONS
CLIMATE FORECASTING / CTB
GLOBAL OPERATIONAL
SOCIOECON.
SYSTEM
TEST CENTER
MODEL ERRORS HIGH IMPACT MODELING
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NOAA THORPEX IMPLEMENTATION PLAN
NOAA THORPEX Funding
NOAA THORPEX Grantee
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BACKGROUND
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NOAAS INVOLVEMENT IN THORPEX

• 1998-99 Discussions started with involvement of
  NOAA scientists
• Apr 2000 First International Meeting
• Mar 2002 First Workshop, International Science
  Steering Committee formed
• Aug 2002 NOAA Tiger Team Meeting
• Oct 2002 NOAA THORPEX Planning Meeting
• Nov 2002 1st Draft NOAA THORPEX Science and
  Implementation Plan
• Jan 2003 NOAA THORPEX Science Steering Committee
  formed
• Feb 2003 Pacific TOST Experiment
• Jun 2003 First NOAA THORPEX Announcement of
  Opportunity
• Sep 2003 25 Full Proposals received

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OUTLINE

• Logistics
• International THORPEX program
• Conveyor belt for transitioning research into
  operations
• NOAA THORPEX program
• Research grants
• NOAA THORPEX activities
• New NWP paradigm
• NOAA THORPEX Implementation Plan
• Historical overview