Fertilizer

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• Fertilizer
• Situation Issues

Glen Buckley 2009 Legislative Ag
Conference January, 2009
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(No Transcript)
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World Nitrogen Price Index (Average 2003 100)
Market spikes to record levels
Market collapses
Long-Term Trend
January 2003 Current
Source Green Markets
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World Nitrogen Demand(MM Metric Tons)
2002-07 3.7 Growth
1990-2002 1.1 Growth
Calendar Years
Source Fertecon, CRU, CF
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World Nitrogen Operating Rate
MM Tonnes N
World operating rates climb to record levels
Average Rate 1992-2002 80.9
Calendar Years
Source Fertecon, CF
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World Natural Gas Prices(/MMBtu)
Calendar Years
Source CERA, Fertecon
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U.S. Ammonia and Urea Capacity (Million Tons of
Product)
2000
2008
Change
Ammonia
19.9
11.5
-40
Urea
9.8
6.3
-36
Calendar Year
Source Fertecon, CF
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Perfect Storm - Up

• Demand
• Crop futures escalate to record levels
• World nitrogen import demand soars concern over
  supply availability
• Supply
• China drop out of the market
• Record level of unexpected plant
  outages/turnarounds Russia, Ukraine, Trinidad,
  Argentina, Middle East
• Freight rates jump to record levels
• Dollar continues to decline

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World Urea Prices (/Tonne)
China export tax
Source Fertecon
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Perfect Storm - Down

• Crop futures plummet
• Credit/Financial crisis hits world market
• World fertilizer trade demand comes to a complete
  halt
• Freight rates collapse
• Inventory in exporting countries soar force
  plant closures
• Dollar climbs 20

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World Urea Production Outages (MM Tonnes)
2.59 MM
Average 936,000
Source Industry Publications
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U.S. Nitrogen Supply(MM Tons N)
Imports now account for more than half of total
U.S. nitrogen supply
Imports
Domestic Production
Fertilizer Year
Source USDC, TFI
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U.S. Dry Urea Supply (Million Product Tons)
Imports
Domestic Production
Fertilizer Year
Source USDOC, IFDC, TFI
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U.S. Dry Urea Imports (MM Product Tons)
Fertilizer Year
Source USDC, TFI
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U.S. UAN Supply (Million Product Tons)
Capacity
Imports
Domestic Production
Fertilizer Year
Source USDOC, IFDC, TFI
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U.S. UAN 32 Imports (MM Product Tons)
Fertilizer Year
Source USDC, TFI
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World Phosphate Price Index (Average 2003 100)
Market spikes to record levels
Market collapses
S/D Balance Tightens
January 2003 Current
Source Green Markets
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World DAP/MAP Demand(MM Metric Tons)
2001-07 4.9 Growth
1990-2001 1.6 Growth
Calendar Years
Source Fertecon, CRU, CF
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DAP Input Cost Into India (/Tonne)
Source Fertecon, GM
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India DAP Production Cost (/Tonne)
Source Fertecon, FMB
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U.S. DAP/MAP Production (000 Tons P2O5)
Source TFI, DOC, CF
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• Questions?