Clutch hitting revisited

1
Clutch hitting revisited

• Pete Palmer and Dick Cramer

2
Why another study?

• Persistence of a controversy
• Clutchness is objectively non-existent
• vs. Human perceptions of pressure
• Bill James argues
• Clutchness might be obscured by the fog of
  random variation
• Might this fog be overcome by clever grouping
  of players?
• How do pressure situations affect batting
  generally?

3
Summary of Our Findings

• Game situation does not significantly affect
  average batting performance
• The fog of statistical variation is much
  thicker than almost anyone appreciates
• The variation in career clutchness among the
  897 players with gt3000 BFPs between 1957 and
  2007 seems random
• Ortiz and Mark Grace are tied for 80th and
  100th rankings among the 897

4
All ML Hitters Under Pressure
OPS when
Pressure Definition (who) Tense Other Tensest
10 of BFP (best 897) .779 .771 Elias late
close 15 (all) .704 .715

• Tense Situations are different
• More intentional walks
• Better pitchers
• More pinch hitters

5
David Ortizs Clutch Performances by Season
Win Value
10
Linear Weight Runs
100
6
Comparing the Fog to the Clutch Results
Width gt Fog Density calculated several
ways (probability theory, simulation). All agree.
Fog
Results
The other 895 players who had 3000 plate
appearances between 1957 and 2007
7
Fog Density Starting Points

• Many pressure definitions considered
• All, weighted by pressure
• 10 highest pressure, vs. other 90
• Elias late and close (15), vs. other 85
• First 100 batting appearances of player
• Individual ABs critical gt noisy win average
• Example Adam Dunn on 6/30/2006
• tensest 2 BFP easiest 35 BFP

8
Most and least clutch players

• Nellie Fox
• Don Lock
• Dave May
• Pat Meares
• Minnie Minoso
• Desi Relaford
• Jose Uribe
• Sandy Alomar

• Earl Williams
• Damian Miller
• Mike Lieberthal
• Michael Barrett
• Frank Thomas
• Dick Schofield
• Chris Sabo
• Manny Ramirez

9
Other pressure non-effects

• Clustering of consecutive seasons? (e.g., Ortiz
  2005-2006).
• Overall, r2 for clutchness .002
• Overall, r2 for OPS .43
• The first 100 BFPs of a career?
• Performance distributions by pressure situations
  compared to performance distributions by game date

10
Conclusions

• Yes, the fog that probability theory demands and
  empirical observation confirms is thick.
• But why believe in something whose existence can
  objectively be demonstrated to be unprovable?
• Especially since a clutch hitter must actually
  be someone who doesnt always perform at his best!