RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENTS OF NATURAL HAZARDS

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RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENTS OF NATURAL HAZARDS

• Ron Conner
• Corps of Engineers

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CORPS MISSIONS

• PLANNING , CONSTRUCTING AND MANAGING WATER
  RESOURCE AND COASTAL STORM PROJECTS
• EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT

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RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENTS OF NATURAL HAZARDS
RISK MANAGEMENT VS RISK-BASED ANALYSIS
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RISK MANAGEMENT

• IDENTIFY OPTIONS
• EVALUATE TRADE-OFFS
• SELECT APPROPRIATE RISK-LEVEL

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RISK-BASED ANALYSIS
An approach to evaluation and decision making
that explicitly, and to the extent practical
analytically incorporate considerations of risk
and uncertainty
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FLOOD CONTROL EXAMPLE

• PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS
• Frequency Curve
• Rating Curve
• Damage Function
• MONTE CARLO SIMULATION
• MULTIPLE ITERATIONS

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PLANNING EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT

• Investment Decision-Making
• Lengthy Study Process
• Precision Expectation

• Mission Scope
• Immediate Need
• 80 Percent Solution?

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ONGOING PROGRAMS

• Research and Development
• Other Programs

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RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT

• Risk Analysis for Civil Work Projects
• Risk Analysis for Dam Safety
• Procedures for applying risk analysis to dam
  safety investment decision making process
• Individual dams
• Case study Alamo Dam
• Portfolio assessment
• Demonstration application
• Procedures for estimating potential lives saved

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RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT

• Corps Water Management System - CWMS
• Project Status and Hydromet data in real-time
• Store, Manage and Report data, imagery and
  documents
• Model, Forecast and Simulate reservoir and river
  status
• Perform Decision Support Analysis and
  Information Dissemination
• Test Version Fielded at Four Sites

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RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT

• Risk-Based Coastal Storm Model
• Application Across Program Areas
• Concept - Stage
• Incorporates Uncertainty in Key Variables such
  as inundation areas, beach retreat, damage
  function.
• Could be extended for Wind damage

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OTHER PROGRAMS

• FLOOD DAMAGE DATA COLLECTION
• Data collection
• Generic residential depth-damage functions
• CEFIT
• Residential
• Commercial
• Flood Plain Inventory Primer
• Road Damages
• EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MODEL VALIDATION

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OBJECTIVE
An integrated program of risk management will
bring together Federal and state programs to
address the mitigation and the response and
recovery from riverine and coastal flooding