Scenario Planning

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Scenario Planning

• A training course

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Purpose of today

• To develop a common understanding on the use,
  value and process of scenario planning
• To look at how scenarios can support broader
  strategic thinking
• To deepen your understanding of the
  practicalities of designing and running scenario
  projects
• To build an overview of different approaches,
  tools and techniques
• To have a go

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Mix of activities
Presentations
Group activities
Case studies
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Structure

• 9.30 Introducing scenario planning
• 10.15 Scenarios and strategic management
• 11.00 Coffee
• 11.15 Building scenarios
• 12.45 Lunch
• 1.15 Detailing the scenarios
• 2.45 Fruit
• 3.00 From planning to action
• 4.00 Coffee
• 4.15 From planning to action (cont)
• 4.45 Review learning points
• 5.30 Close

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The scenario planners dilemma
Plausible, stretching and compelling
Breakthrough thinking
Audience pull
Comfortable
Uncomfortable
Audience pull
Implausible, obvious and dull
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Why resistance happens

• people are not skilled at thinking about the
  future
• so they may have little understanding of where
  scenarios have come from
• scenarios invite people to lay bare their
  assumptions
• which some would rather keep hidden
• the future is neutral and democratic
• which means everyone has an equal voice
• scenario thinking removes the rules and
  structures of today
• which makes some people defensive

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Why resistance happens

• scenarios invite people to explore what might
  happen
• and people want to control what will happen
• Understanding scenarios (the output) relies on
  understanding drivers and uncertainties (the
  input)
• and many people do not have a detailed
  understanding of whats currently happening
• scenarios may be the art of strategic
  conversation
• but most people are not good strategic
  conversationalists

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Process design

• Are you trying to develop
• multiple futures?
• a preferred future?
• Do you need
• new scenarios?
• contextualised scenarios?
• Is your principle output
• the scenarios?
• deeper understanding?
• a policy framework?
• policy decisions?
• something else?

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Process design

• Are you going to consult
• extensively?
• not much?
• Is it more important to capture
• subjective opinion?
• objective opinion?
• Are you going to describe
• endstates?
• timelines?

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Seven Steps to Successful Scenario Planning

• Be clear about the business idea or policy
  proposition you wish to test
• Identify the trends and drivers that might have
  an impact on its delivery
• Capture the perspective of a number of
  stakeholders
• Agree what is predetermined and what are critical
  uncertainties
• Develop scenarios that are robust enough to work
  with - but do not over-engineer them or expect
  them to provide the answer
• Use the scenarios to practice future decisions
• Link the outcomes of your discussions to forward
  planning