US Air Force Approach to EffectsBased Capabilities Planning

1
US Air Force Approach to Effects-Based
Capabilities Planning
Karan Fowler WR-ALC/XPXM
2
Air Force CONOPS

• The highest Service-level concept comprising a
  Commanders assumptions and intent to achieve
  desired effects through the guided integration of
  capabilities and tasks that solve a problem in an
  expected mission area

CONOPS will guide Air Force planning and
programming, requirements reform, and
acquisition.
... shift the Air Force from a program review to
a review of how our programs contribute to
warfighting capabilities and effects.
3
What is USAF Doing?

• USAF transforming the planning and programming
  processes to an effects-based approach to support
  the Air Space Expeditionary Force
• AF/XOX and AF/IL to manage linkage of AF
  contribution to the Joint Warfighters desired
  effects to AF investment strategy

4
CONOPS and Capabilities Based Planning Drive
Everything We Do
5
The Key CONOPS

• Centerpiece Concepts of Operations (CONOPS) will
  guide planning and programming, requirements
  reform, acquisition and sustainment
• Seven CONOPS developed
• Global Strike
• Global Persistent Attack
• Homeland Security
• Nuclear Response
• Global Mobility
• Space C4ISR
• Agile Combat Support
• Each CONOPS has a Champion (O6) for those Effects
  and Capabilities

6
Champion Approach

• Work with MAJCOMs, Functional area leaders and
  staffs to understand and Advocate key
  capabilities AF needs to provide to the Joint
  Warfighter
• Organize capabilities from the CONOPS
• Identify capability shortfalls and risks in the
  current program
• Prioritize capabilities/shortfalls according to
  contribution and risk
• Influence investment strategy to optimize
  warfighting effectiveness
• Conduct Capability Review and Risk Assessments
  (CRRAs) to evaluate POMs ability to meet
  Capabilities goals

7
Capabilities Review and Risk Assessment (CRRA)

• Replaces the Quarterly Acquisition and Program
  Review (QAPR)
• Shifts focus from program status to how our
  programs contribute to warfighting capabilities
  and effects - centered around CONOPS
• Evaluates health of each of the required
  capabilities and assesses Risk in terms of
  achieving desired Capabilities
• Reviews acquisition programs and discusses
  disconnects and prioritization in relation to how
  the programs support capabilities.

Provides an operational, capabilities-based
focus for decision making
8
Capabilities Review Risk Assessment (CRRA)

• Our USAF way to analyze based first on CONOPS
• Built on annual PPBE cycle
• Defined in capability terms
• Fixed assumptions terms of reference
• Measured in risk to the strategy
• Yields prioritized capability gaps and objectives
• Basis for initial capability documents (formerly
  MNS/ORDs)
• Determines requirements
• Drives programmatics, ST, acquisition, and
  sustainment

9
CRRA Process
Air Force gets input MAJCOM writes this
List all programs that relate to that capability
Capabilities, Shortfalls, Near-Mid-FarSolutions
Identified
CPER
AFMCCapabilities Planning(Evolving)
10
AF Master Capabilities Library

• Master Capabilities Library
• MCL 1 Surveillance Reconnaissance
• MCL 2 Intelligence
• MCL 3 Command Control
• MCL 4 Net Centric Information Environment
• MCL 5 Force Application
  
• MCL 6 Force Projection
• MCL 7 Force Protection
• MCL 8 Establish Generate
• MCL 9 Create Sustain the Force

MCL is the Foundation of the CRRA
11
CRRA Process
Air Force gets input MAJCOM writes this
List all programs that relate to that capability
Capabilities, Shortfalls, Near-Mid-FarSolutions
Identified
CPER
AFMCCapabilities Planning(Evolving)
12
CRRA Process Overview
Program
Capability
Program
Program
?
Capability
Redundancy
Program
Effect
Capability
GAP
CONOPS
Effect
Capability
Shortfall
CRRA
Effect
13
Example HLS Analysis
(Effects) Prevent, Protect, Respond (Capability)
1.0 Conduct counterair (Sub-Capability) 1.2
Detect and track airborne and surface objects
(fixed and mobile) of operational significance
within a defined area of interest
(Sub-Sub-Capability) 1.2.1 Detect airborne
objects (Task) 1.2.1.1 24/7 Wide
Area Surveillance (MOE) Detect objects out to X
range from defended assets

• Solution Options Recommendations
• Option 1 current baseline (reflects Current
  POM)
• Option 2 improvement over baseline
• Option 3 additional option
• Recommendation rollup
• Recommendations based on Risk

14
CRRA Process
Air Force gets input MAJCOM writes this
List all programs that relate to that capability
Capabilities, Shortfalls, Near-Mid-FarSolutions
Identified
CPER
AFMCCapabilities Planning(Evolving)
15
Capabilities Review and Risk Assessment (CRRA)
Integrates all Effects and Capabilities across
all CONOPSdetermine shortfalls / gaps /
redundancies
defend homeland
defeat anti-access and asymmetric threats
sustained combat operations
project in all environments
deter and counter attack
control Space and inform the fight
Space / C4ISR
Global Power
Global Vigilance
Global Reach
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
combat ready forces
C4ISR
Agile Combat Support
500
AOCs
0
Shooters
C4ISR Systems
Movers
UNCLASSIFIED
16
Transforming WR-ALCWhat Has Changed?
TO
FROM

• Industrial Age
• Cold War
• Peace to War
• Major Theater War Force Structure
• Big Budgets
• Threat-Based Strategy
• Reactive
• Focus on Targets to be Destroyed
• Platforms

• Information Age
• War on Terror
• At War
• Expeditionary ForceStructure
• Smaller Budgets
• Effects-Based Strategy
• Proactive (Sense Respond)
• Focus on Effects Required
• Capabilities

17
Air ForceCombat Transformation
Means
Requirement
Mission
Challenge
Global StrikeCONOPS
A C S CONOPS
GlobalMobility CONOPS
Deliver DominantEffects When WhereNeeded
Global Persistent Attack CONOPS
Continuumof Conflictand Spectrum of Threats
Effects-BasedCapabilities
Space C4ISR CONOPS
HomelandSecurity CONOPS
NuclearResponse CONOPS
Full Spectrum of Partnership Support!
18

• QUESTIONS?