InClass Presentation Political Science 203

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In-Class PresentationPolitical Science 203

• October 1, 2008

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United States Economy

• Where Are We Now?

• What Actions Caused the Current State of the
  Economy?

• Landman/Hauss Theories Methods

• Could the Crisis Have Been Avoided?

• Will the U.S. Economy Fall Into a Recession?

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Where Are We Now?United States Budget 2000 vs.
2008

• September 2000 President Clinton announced
  230B federal budget surplus for fiscal year 2000
  and the 5.7T national debt had been reduced
  223B in 2000 alone signifying the largest
  one-year debt reduction in the history of the
  United States. (Wallace)

• 2008 U.S. National Debt Clock indicated on
  September 29, 2008 the national debt was 9.8T.
  (Hall)

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Actions Caused Current State of Economy?United
States Budget Decisions 2000-2008

• Free Trade U.S. trade deficit swelled to over
  617B in 2004. (Mekay) U.S. Census Bureau
  indicated the Nations international deficit in
  goods and services increased to 62.2B in 2008.
  (FTDWebmaster)

• Cost of War -- Bush Administration estimated
  50-60B in 2002 for the costs of the war. In
  2008, actual cost of war is 12B per month, total
  of 144B annually. Estimates for the total cost
  of wars in Iraq and Afghanistan are 5-7T
  including military operations, growing debt and
  interest payments and continuing health care and
  counseling costs for veterans. (Reid)

• Credit Crisis In 2008, International Monetary
  Fund reported falling U.S. house prices and
  rising delinquencies, may lead to 565B in
  mortgage-market losses and a total loss of 945B
  including securities tied to commercial real
  estate, consumer and company loans. (Bloomberg
  News) American International Group (AIG)
  increased its estimation of losses from the
  sub-prime mortgage crisis to 5B, previously 1B.
  (Masters)

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Landman/Hauss Theories Methods
Landman discusses the strength or weakness in
comparisons. Landman might consider the three
selections that I have used to obtain information
regarding the economy selection bias.
Hauss discusses democracy and its two basic
elements rights and competitive elections.
How much influence do you think the people have
in relation to the economy? Do the people have
any influence on the decision the government is
making to possibly use government funding to bail
out corporations and cause tax payers to
essentially cover the cost in the long run if the
loans are not repaid?
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Could the Crisis Have Been Avoided?

• One Suggestion from Ron Paul in The Crisis is
  Upon Us Federal Reserve System originated
  between 1913 and 1933 and the Central Bank
  established itself as the official dollar
  manager. By 1945, Bretton-Woods Monetary System
  made the dollar the reserve currency of the
  world. Between 1945 and 1971, foreigners, not
  Americans, could convert dollars to gold at 35
  an ounce. Due to the excessive dollars being
  created, that system came to an end in 1971.
  (Paul)

• Another Suggestion from Craig Harrington at CNN
  Money in Housing Slump at Root of Financial
  Crisis Home values soared over the past decade,
  topping out at all-time highs in 2006 and 2007
  and eventually crashed. The effect of this
  housing crash is still rippling through the
  economy. Policy-makers are completely out of
  their league in dealing with a crisis of these
  proportions. (Roberts)

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Will the U.S. Economy Fall Into a Recession?

• My personal opinion is that we already have
  fallen into a recession, but most people are not
  willing to admit it. The federal government
  continues attempts to bail out the U.S. economy,
  but at some point the top of the pyramid will be
  reached and someone will be held responsible for
  payment of an extremely large deficit.

• Open for Discussion

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References MLA Style

• Bloomberg News, Credit Crisis Could Cost Nearly
  1 Trillion, IMF Predicts, Paragraph 2,
  International Herald Tribune. April 8, 2008,
  Retrieved September 17, 2008, http//www.iht.com/a
  rticles/2008/04/08/business/imf.php
• FTDWebMaster, Foreign Trade Division. U.S.
  International Trade in Goods and Services
  Highlights, Goods and Services Deficit Increases
  in July 2008, Paragraph 1, U.S. Census Bureau.
  September 11, 2008, Retrieved September 17, 2008,
  http//www.census.gov/indicator/www/ustrade.html
• Hall, Ed Brillig, U.S. National Debt Clock,
  Paragraph 1, U.S. Department of Treasury.
  September 16, 2008, Retrieved September 17, 2008,
  http//www.brillig.com/debt_clock/
• Masters, David, AIGs Estimated Losses From
  Subprime Mortgage Crisis Increase Fivefold,
  Paragraph 1, Insurance Daily. February 13, 2008,
  Retrieved September 17, 2008, http//www.insuranc
  edaily.co.uk/2008/02/13/aigs-estimated-losses-from
  -subprime-mortgage-crisis-increase-fivefold/
• Mekay, Emad. Record Deficit Challenges Free
  Trade Assumptions, Paragraph 1, Global
  Exchange/Programs in the Americas. February 10,
  2005, Retrieved September 17, 2008,
  http//www.globalexchange.org/countries/americas/v
  enezuela/2872.html
• Paul, Ron Republican Member of Congress from
  Texas, The Crisis Is Upon Us, Paragraphs 12
  13, LewRockwell.com. July 19, 2008, Retrieved
  September 18, 2008, http//www.lewrockwell.com/pau
  l/paul466.html
• Reid, Harry Senator Iraq Casualties, Iraq
  Costs, Iraq Numbers, Section The Cost of
  Funding the War in Iraq, Huffington Post. March
  19, 2008, Retrieved September 17,
  2008,http//www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/03/19/ira
  q-casualties-iraq-cos_n_92303.html
• Roberts, Paul Craig formerly Secretary of the
  U.S. Treasury/ Americas Economic Report-Daily,
  Housing Slump at Root of Financial Crisis,
  Paragraphs 1 2, Economy in Crisis. September
  18, 2008, Retrieved September 18, 2008,
  http//www.economyincrisis.org/
• Wallace, Kelly CNN White House Representative,
  President Clinton Announces Another Record
  Budget Surplus, Paragraphs 1 3, CNN. September
  27, 2000, Retrieved September 17, 2008,
  http//archives.cnn.com/2000/ALLPOLITICS/stories/0
  9/27/clinton.surplus/