IFPSGFE Best Practices and Forecast Methodology

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IFPS/GFE Best Practices and Forecast Methodology

• Dave Kellenbenz Grand Forks, ND (FGF)

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Forecast Methodology

• We utilize break up of forecast responsibility
  based on time basis which is dictated by days
  weather
• Short Term forecaster (Day1-Day3) constantly in
  grids
• Long Term forecaster (Day3-Day7) Aviation
  forecaster
• If Short term forecaster needs help, then long
  term forecaster can step in since they are
  familiar with current weather because of aviation
  concerns
• Grid distribution depends on weather (ie. Big
  storm short term will only concentrate on first
  36 hours etc.)
• Forecasters utilize Sky grid smart tools/smart
  init a great deal. Still trying to integrate more
  smart tool usage into forecast process
• Snow Amount smart tools also have helped a lot
  with snowfall amounts
• Have found ISC to be challenging, but think
  12Planet will help

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Utilization of HMT/Interns in GFE

• HMT/Interns responsible for all Dewpoint, RH and
  Fire Weather related Grids
• They also run MaxT/MinT, Windchill, Heatindex
  grids
• They will monitor near term grids (0-3hr) in very
  near future for updates in coordination with
  short term forecaster
• Have helped a great deal with Grids and helped
  make transition to IFPS and workload manageable
  for forecasters
• Could not do job right without them, just too
  many grids to manipulate

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Sky Smart Tools

• Smart tools have helped a lot to identify
  different cloud layers in grids
• Eta seems to work best with more levels available
• Have put Eta layered 1000-500mb rh into sky smart
  init.

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Snow Amount Smart tool

• Can be run for 1hr or 6hr snow amt grid
• Runs of input QPF, surface temp, freezing level,
  topo and snow ratio
• Good to input user snow ratio in strong advection
  cases, which affects vertical temp profile the
  most. (WAA-lower ratio)

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Conclusion

• Office has demonstrated ability to adapt and be
  flexible
• Check grids after interpolating, very important
  to go back and look at grids to make sure grids
  are what you want
• Coordination among entire operational staff is
  excellent
• Proficiency of operational staff at fairly high
  level, so if someone is asked to help with
  certain grids they can
• Will strive to use more smart tools, smart init,
  text formatters and DFC in future
• Questions, comments ???