Decision Analysis Case Study FREEMARK ABBEY WINERY Khurram Masoods section

1
Decision Analysis Case StudyFREEMARK ABBEY
WINERYKhurram Masoods section
HLCC Consulting Inc. Julian Hong Nicolas Liao
Alan Chen Cheng-Chieh Chao
2
Decision Basis

• Information
• Probability of rain, mold formation, acidity,
  sugar level, wine price, reputation value,
  detector accuracy, spores effectiveness,
  immigration law
• Mr. Jaegers Alternatives
• Harvest now or later
• Use detector or not
• Buy spores or not
• Sell in bottle or bulk
• Mr. Jaegers Preferences
• Prefers more money than less
• Cares about reputation
• Uncertainties
• Probability of rain, mold formation, acidity,
  sugar level

3
Decision Diagram
4
Decision Tree
5
(No Transcript)
6
(No Transcript)
7
Delay the harvest and buy spores, but at a
probability of rain greater than 45, use the
detector
8
Use the detector, delay the harvest, but if the
probability of spores exceeds 85.6, do not buy
the spores
9
Regardless of the probability of low acidity,
always use the detector, harvest later, and buy
spores.
No turning point!
10
Regardless of sugar probability, always use the
detector, delay harvest, and buy spores.
No turning point!
11
Regardless of immigration probability, always use
the detector, delay the harvest, and buy the
spores.
No turning point!
12
Value of the superDoppler (Perfect Information)

• The value of the detector is
• 6874.64 thus it is worth anything up until
  this point

13
Value of Mr. Borzs Spores (Control)

• The value of the spores is
• 22400.93 thus it is worth anything up until
  this point