Export ControlsWhats next

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Export ControlsWhats next?
Export Controls Whats Next?

• Joseph Young
• Bureau of Industry and Security

Joseph Young Bureau of Industry and Security
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HPC EXPORT CONTROLS

• US and Wassenaar partners maintain controls on
  HPCs for exports to certain countries (i.e.,
  China, Russia and Pakistan)
• National security benefits of controlling HPCs
• -- Prevents transfers to military end-users
• -- Visibility into others use of computers for
  their national security work

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Previous Control Metric

• Composite Theoretical Performance, measured in
  millions of theoretical operations per second
  (MTOPS), used for export controls since 1991
• As a result of recent advances in computer and
  processor architectures, MTOPS
• -- Increasingly less effective at ranking
  relative HPC performance
• -- Understates relative performance of vector
  HPCs
• (e.g., Cray X1 series)
• -- Difficult to calculate -- Decreasing
  relevance to HPCs and national security
  related work

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IMPACT OF RAISING MTOPS THRESHOLD
1024-way USPARC4
64-way NEC SX-8
384-way 1.5 GHz IA64
128-way Cray X1E
128-way SGI Altix
128-way 1.5 GHz IA64 NUMA
256-way 2 GHz Power5
512-way USPARC4
500K
License Reqd
128-way Cray X1
64-way Cray X1E
512-way USPARC3
128-way Cray XD-1
32-way NEC SX-8
64-way NEC SX-6
300K
128-way 2 GHz Power5
64-way 3.6 GHz Xeon
64-way Cray X1
Future Game Consoles
512-way Power3
64-way Cray XD-1
32-way 1.5 GHz IA64 NUMA
32-way 3.2 GHz Xeon
72-way 1.7 GHz Power4
32-way SGI Altix
190K
No License Reqd
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Current HPC Export Controls

• 71 FR 20876 (April 24, 2006)
• Replaced the CTP formula with the APP formula
• The APP formula is much easier to calculate and
  addressed the shortcomings of CTP
• Changed the licensing threshold from 190,000
  MTOPS to 0.75 WT

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CURRENT CONTROL METRIC

• Adjusted Peak Performance (APP)
• -- Measured in Weighted TeraFLOPS (WT)
• -- Metric derived from existing industry
  standard-- Simple to calculate
• Differentiates between high-end, special order
  HPCs (vector processors) and commodity
  off-the-shelf systems
• -- Protects high-end proprietary HPCs used by
  DoD and DoE for most advanced RD and
  simulation
• -- Significantly relaxes controls on
  commodity products (e.g., desktop personal
  computers and entertainment devices)

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WT Values of the Top500
Source Nov 2004 list
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IMPACT OF APP CONTROL METRIC
1.5
License Reqd
1
0.75
No License Reqd
Future Game Consoles
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WA Results
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• Whats next?

Whats Next?
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HPC Performance Historical Perspective
Source IDA, MCTP
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Observations

• In three years, 25th-ranked system is off the
  Top500.
• HPC performance growth greater than Moores Law
  gt ability to connect multiple processors
  continues to grow.
• Making efficient use of multiple processors has
  not grown as fast.

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Distribution of Clusters on Top500
80
70
60
Number of Clusters Represented
50
40
30
20
10
1-100 101-200 201-300 301-400
401-500
Top500 Ranking
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Growth and Shake-out in Top 500?
Source IDA, MCTP
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Observations From the June 2005 Top500

• Vector machines comprise 3.6 of the Top500, down
  from 31.6 in June 1995.
• Over 75 of the systems use general-purpose
  interconnection fabric.
• Clusters account for 60 of the Top500--fairly
  evenly distributed across the list.
• There may have been a shake-out in suppliers and
  self-assembly.
• Significant share of systems produced outside of
  Japan and US.

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Prognosis

• Increasing reliance on COTS components.
• Only governments (Japan and US) support non-COTS
  development.
• Peak performance will reach one petaflops well
  before 2010.
• Sustained performance may reach 1 P by 2010.

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TOP 500 LIST DATA