Climate Modeling MEA 719

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• Climate Modeling MEA 719
• (Lecture Set-2)
• International organization of global climate
  research programs

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Topics of the Course

• Course consists of the following topics
• INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE RESEARCH ORGANIZATIONAL
  STRUCTURE
• GLOBAL SEASONAL CLIMATE PREDICTION SYSTEM
• METHODS OF ANALYSIS OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY
• TROPICAL INTRA-SEASONAL MODES
• MONSOONS DYNAMICS
• ENSO THEORY THE DELAYED OSCILLATOR
• DECADAL VARIABILITY
• CLIMATE CHANGE
• PREDICTABILITY-CHAOS-LORENZ ATTRACTOR
• EVALUATION OF ADDED VALUE OF CLIMATE PREDICTION
• MODEL DEFICIENCIES
• DECISION MODELING
• OBSERVATIONAL LIMITATIONS OPPORTUNITIES
• .

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• Lead Question Describe the main features of the
  coordinating mechanism for the global climate
  research program and its activities throughout
  the World
• Should be familiar with the basic structure
  (see schematic diagram) and be able to briefly
  state the scientific activities associated with
  of each principal areas

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----- WCRP ----- International climate research
organizational structure
GOALS Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System
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Coordinating Mechanism

• The principal coordinating mechanism for climate
  research is the World Climate Research Programme
  (WCRP http//www.wmo.ch/web/wcrp/wcrp-home.html)
• WCRP emphasizes the physical climate system
  consisting of the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, and
  land surface
• Administered by
• - World Meterological Organization (WMO)
• - International Council for Science Union (ICSU)
• - Intergovernmental Ocean Commission
  (IOC/UNESCO)
• UNESCO (United Nations Educational,
  Scientific and Cultural Organization)

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WMOs Mission

• "WMO contributes to the welfare of humanity.
  Within the framework of WMO programs, National
  Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs)
  enhance national economic and social well being
  through timely and accurate meteorological and
  hydrological information."

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ICSUs Mission

• "To identify and address major issues of
  importance to science and society, by mobilizing
  the resources and knowledge of the international
  scientific community
• to promote the participation of all scientists
• to facilitate interactions between different
  scientific disciplines and between scientists
  from Developing and Developed countries
• to stimulate constructive debate by acting as an
  authoritative independent voice for international
  science and scientists."

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Intergovernmental Ocean Commission (IOC) Mission

• "To coordinate activities for the exploitation
  of the oceans for sustainable development."

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WCRP MAIN PROGRAMS(CLIVAR)

• Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR)
• Main focus in WCRP for studies of climate
  variability, extending effective predictions of
  climate variation and refining the estimates of
  anthropogenic climate change.
• Exploitation of the "memory" in the slowly
  changing oceans and to develop understanding of
  the coupled behavior of the rapidly changing
  atmosphere and slowly varying land surface,
  oceans and ice masses as they respond to natural
  processes, human influences and changes in the
  Earth's chemistry and biota.
• Advance the findings of the successfully
  completed Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere
  (TOGA) project
• Expand on work now underway in WCRP's World Ocean
  Circulation Experiment (WOCE)

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WCRP World Ocean Circulation Experiment
(WOCE)1990-2002

• World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) was a
  component of the World Climate Research Program
  (WCRP)
• Aim to establish the role of the oceans in the
  earth's climate and to obtain a baseline dataset
  against which future change could be assessed
• Aim to understand and predict changes in the
  world ocean circulation, volume and heat storage,
  which would result from changes in atmospheric
  climate and net radiation, by means of a
  combination of in situ oceanographic
  measurements, observations from space and global
  ocean modeling
• WOCE remains the most ambitious oceanographic
  experiment undertaken to-date

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WCRP World Ocean Circulation Experiment
(WOCE)1990-2002

• On the completion of WOCE other large-scale
  projects which involve the ocean and climate are
  being actively pursued. Among them are
• - CLIVAR, a global study of the earth's climate
  variability and predictability
• - GODAE, the Global Ocean Data Assimilation
  Experiment
• - ARGO a global array of temperature/salinity
  profiling floats.

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Array for Real-time Geostrophic Oceanography
(ARGO)

• The broad-scale global array of
  temperature/salinity profiling floats, known as
  Argo, has already grown to be a major component
  of the ocean observing system.  Deployments began
  in 2000
• Argo is a global array of 3,000 free-drifting
  profiling floats that measures the temperature,
  salinity of the upper 2000 m of the ocean,
  velocity of the upper ocean. 
• This allows, for the first time, continuous
  monitoring of the temperature, salinity, and
  velocity of the upper ocean, with all data being
  relayed and made publicly available within hours
  after collection

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ARGO FLOAT

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WCRP MAIN PROGRAMS(ACSYS/CLIC)

• The Arctic Climate System Study (ACSYS), is a
  regional project studying climate of the Arctic
  region including its atmosphere, ocean, sea ice,
  and hydrological regime
• ACSYS is being expanded into a global project
  Climate and Cryosphere (CliC)  investigating the
  role of the entire cryosphere in global climate.

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WCRP MAIN PROGRAMS(GEWEX)

• The Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment
  (GEWEX) is the scientific focus in WCRP for
  studies of atmospheric and thermodynamic
  processes that determine the Global hydrological
  cycle and water budget and their adjustment to
  global changes such as the increase in greenhouse
  gases
• One of the main thrusts of GEWEX is the
  implementation of a series of atmospheric/hydrolog
  ical regional process studies such as
• - GEWEX Continental-scale International Project
  (GCIP) embracing the whole Mississippi river
  basin
• - GEWEX Asian Monsoon Experiment (GAME)
• - Baltic Sea Experiment (BALTEX)

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WCRP MAIN PROGRAMS(WCRP Modeling activities)

• The Working Group on Numerical Experimentation
  (WGNE), jointly sponsored by the JSC of WCRP and
  the WMO Commission for Atmospheric Sciences
  (CAS), leads the development of atmospheric
  circulation models for both climate studies and
  numerical weather prediction.
• The Working Group on Coupled Modeling (WGCM),
  jointly sponsored by JSC and CLIVAR, leads the
  development of coupled ocean/atmosphere/land
  models used for climate studies on longer
  time-scales.
• the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project
  (AMIP) has been set up in which the ten-year
  period 1979-1988 has been simulated by thirty
  different atmospheric models under specified
  conditions. The comparison of the results with
  observations has shown the capability of many
  models to represent adequately mean seasonal
  states and large-scale interannual variability
  for several basic climate parameters. A similar
  Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) is
  also now being organized.

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SPARCStratospheric Processes And their Role in
Climate A core project of the World Climate
Research Programme

• Stratospheric processes play a significant role
  in the earth's climate
• The absorption of solar radiation in the
  stratosphere by ozone modulates the solar forcing
  of climate.
• The concentrations of some stratospheric gases,
  principally ozone, carbon dioxide and water
  vapor, determine significant radiative forcing
  terms, and there is two-way interaction between
  stratospheric and tropospheric dynamics.

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LEADING TO CLIVAR

• Tropical Ocean-Global Atmosphere (TOGA 10-year
  program which started in 1985 mainly
  observational TOGA report)
• World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE
  1990-2000 mainly observational www.woce.org)
• Climate variability and predictability project
  (CLIVAR 10-15 year initiative started in 1995
  mainly research www.clivar.org)

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Organization

• WCRP oversees coordination of several key
  (MAIN) areas of climate variability
• CLIVAR (A project of WCRP) oversees
  coordination of the physical component of climate
  variability
• Components (or Panels) each has an agenda,
  typically about 12 experts from all around the
  World, provide guidance to the international
  climate community in its particular area

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International organization of CLIVAR climate
programs

• CLIVAR Scientific Steering Group (SSG)
• International CLIVAR Project Office (ICPO) 
• CLIVAR Panels and Working Groups
• Working Group on Seasonal-to-interannual
  Prediction (WGSIP former NEG-1)
• JSC/CLIVAR Working Group on Coupled Modeling
  (WGCM former NEG-2)
• Upper Ocean Panel (UOP)
• CLIVAR Asian- Australian Monsoon Panel (CMP)
• CLIVAR VAMOS Panel (Variability of the American
  Monsoon System)
• CLIVAR VACS Panel (Variability of the African
  Climate System)
• PAGES (Past Global Changes, PAGES) project/CLIVAR
  Working Group
• TOGA COARE (Tropical Ocean Global
  Atmospheres/Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Response
  Experiment)
• Tropical Atmosphere Ocean  project (TAO)
  Implementation Panel (TIP) TAO-Between 1985 and
  1994, the TAO Project Office of PMEL led a major
  international effort to instrument the entire
  tropical Pacific with nearly 70 deep ocean
  moorings (http//www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/proj_over/m
  esgdir.html)

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SESONAL-TO-INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY
PREDICTABILITY OF THE GLOBAL OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE-LAND
SYSTEM (GOALS) observations-diagnosis-models-app
lications

• ENSO (G1)
• VARIABILITY OF THE ASIAN-AUSTRALIAN MONSOON
  SYSTEM (G2)
• VARIABILITY OF THE AMERICAN MONSOON SYSTEM
  (VAMOS-G3)
• VARIABILITY OF THE AFRICAN CLIMATE SYSTEM
  (VACS-G4)

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• ENSO (G1)

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• ENSO (G1)

Compare spread actual anomalies
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• ENSO (G1)

Neutral
La-Nina
El-Nino
Mean number of days per season (December -
February 1948 through 1993) in which maximum
daily temperature is at least 50 C above the
daily climatological mean (1948-1993) value
(top). Difference in number of days between
Neutral years and moderate to strong El Niño
years (lower left). Lower right panel similar to
lower left, except for La Niña years. Data are
analyzed on a 220 x 220 grid. Daily climatology
is a 7-day running mean.
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• VARIABILITY OF
• THE ASIAN
• AUSTRALIAN
• MONSOON
• SYSTEM (G2)

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• VARIABILITY OF
• THE AMERICAN MONSOON SYSTEM (VAMOS-G3)

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• VARIABILITY OF THE AFRICAN CLIMATE SYSTEM
  (VACS-G4)

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DECADAL TO CENTENNIAL TIME SCALES (DecCen)

• NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION (D1)
• TROPICAL ATLANTIC VARIABILITY(D2)
• ATLANTIC THERMOHALINE CIRCULATION (D3)
• PACIFIC INDIAN OCEAN DECADAL VARIABILITY (D4)
• SOUTHERN OCEAN THERMOCLINE CIRCULATION (D5)

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• NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION (D1)

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• TROPICAL
• ATLANTIC VARIABILITY(D2)

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ATLANTIC THERMOHALINE CIRCULATION (D3)
Linked to NAO phase
PACIFIC INDIAN OCEAN DECADAL VARIABILITY (D4)
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• PACIFIC INDIAN OCEAN DECADAL VARIABILITY (D4)

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• SOUTHERN OCEAN THERMOCLINE CIRCULATION (D5)

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ANTHROPOGENIC CLIMATE CHANGE

• CLIMATE CHANGE PREDICTION (A1)
• CLIMATE CHANGE DETECTION AND ATTRIBUTION (A2)

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Recent Changes and Projected warming
Temperature projections, Source IPCC Third
Assessment Report (2001)
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Annual Mean Temperature Anomalies 1901-2003

• Observations compiled by NOAAs National
  Climatic Data Center indicate that most regions
  of the U.S. have warmed by at least 1ºF (0.6ºC)
  since 1901 although the Southeast (climate region
  2) has cooled (Figure 2).
• Warming in excess of 1.8F (1C) has occurred in
  the West (climate region 8) and Alaska (climate
  region 10).
• The last five five-year periods (1999-2003,
  1998-2002, 1997-2001, 1996-2000,1995-99) were the
  warmest for the duration of national records
  (which began in 1901).
• The most recent six-year-(1998-2003), seven-year
  (1997-2003), eight-year (1996-2003), nine-year
  (1995-2003), and ten-year (1994-2003) periods
  were also the warmest on record for the United
  States.

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Global Warming
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Global Warming
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Annual Mean Temperature Anomalies 1901-2003