Thierry Dujardin

1

NTVA International Seminar - Global Energy
ForesightTechnological Foresights concerning
Nuclear

• Thierry Dujardin
• Deputy Director
• Science and Development
• OECD Nuclear Energy Agency

2
Overview

• Nuclear Energy Today
• Nuclear energy and sustainable development
• Uranium resources
• Key Challenges
• Technological Developments
• Generation IV
• Fusion

3
Energy World Scene

• Growing needs of electricity, heat,, hydrogen,
  potable water...
• Increased energy efficiency needed
• Fossil fuel resources limited
• Fossil fuel use affects the environment
• Renewable sources bigger role, but limited
  overall contribution

4
Energy Policy and Sustainable Development

• Energy policy Sustainable development
• The 3 Es 3 dimensions
• Economics ? Economics
• Environment ? Environment
• Energy security ? Social

5
Nuclear Energy and the Economic Dimension of
Sustainable Development

• 24 of OECD electricity generated by nuclear
• Low marginal cost of existing nuclear units
• Increasing load factors
• Uprating of plant capacities
• Low cost of lifetime extension
• Long term stability of generation costs
• Very low sensitivity of nuclear KWh to natural
  uranium cost

6
World Average Nuclear Power Plant Availability
Factor ()
84
83
82
Source IAEA
81
79
79
79
78
76
75
74
74
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
7
Electricity Cost Sensitivityto Fuel Price
Volatility
Uranium price x 2
Gas price x 2
75
5
GAS-FIRED PLANT
NUCLEAR PLANT
8
Nuclear Energy and the Environmental Dimension of
Sustainable Development

• Efficient use of natural resources
• Practically no greenhouse gas emissions
• Small volumes of solid waste
• Feasibility of final disposals
• Important social concern

9
Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Electricity
Production Chains (gCO2 equiv./kWh)
10
Nuclear Energy and the Social Dimension of
Sustainable Development

• Human capital, scientific knowledge, highly
  qualified manpower
• Man-made asset, technology intensive industry
• Institutional framework, comprehensive laws and
  regulations
• Security of supply
• reduced dependence, especially on oil and gas
• geopolitical diversity of natural resources and
  technologies
• domestic source of energy

11
Uranium Resources (1)

• Plentiful Secure Expandable
• Plentiful 14.4 MT
• Reasonably assured resources 3.2 MT
• Estimated additional res. I 1.4 MT
• Estimated additional res. II 2.3 MT
• Speculative resources 7.5 MT
• Consumption 0.06 - 0.07 MT/y
• Market dominated by secondary sources
• Former military applications overproduction
• Depressed prices ? Low investment in exploration
  and production capacity

12
Evolution of uranium prices
13
Uranium Proven World Reserves (as of 1.1.2003)
Secure
Uzbekistan 61.5 (2.5)
Kazakhstan 384.6 (15.7)
lt 80/kgU
Ukraine 34.6 (1.4)
Mongolia 46.2 (1.9)
Russia 124.1 (5.1)
Canada 333.8 (13.6)
USA 102.0 (4.2)
Algeria 19.5 (0.8)
China 35.1 (1.4)
Niger 102.2 (4.2)
Brazil 86.2 (3.5)
Australia 702.0 (28.6)
Namibia 139.3 (5.7)
South Africa 231.7 (9.4)
Others 55.4 (2.3)
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Uranium Resources (2)

• Plentiful Secure Expandable
• Expandable
• Conventional enough for 200 years
• Unconventional resources
• Phosphates 22 MT
• Seawater 4000 MT
• Technology exist to improve energy yield (over x
  50 with the fast neutrons reactors and closed
  fuel cycles)
• Natural uranium 0.7 U235, 99.3 U238

15
Nuclear Energy Today in OECD Countries

• Mature technology
• Important operating experience
• Robust RD infrastructure (ex Halden)
• Current nuclear power plants are competitive
• Externalities
• Large and diversified industrial sector

16
External Costsof Electricity Generation (m/kWh)
Source ExternE 1999
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Key Challenges

• Economics
• Reducing financial risk of new investments
• Environment
• Safe and socially accepted management of
  radioactive waste, especially HLW
• Security
• Proliferation resistance and physical protection
• and always safety and reliability

18
Nuclear Energy and Society
Bjorn Wahlström
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How to Address Challenges

• Implement ambitious and comprehensive RD
  programmes
• Enhance international co-operation
• Take advantage of existing infrastructures
• ? Generation IV - Fusion

20
GIFGeneration IV International Forum

• To foster collaborative RD aiming at developing
  future generation nuclear energy systems
• 8 common goals
• sustainability
• economics
• safety and reliability
• proliferation resistance and physical protection

Euratom joined (7/2003)
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• 6 systems selected
• RD planning
• viability
• performance
• demonstration

http//nuclear.gov Program Offices Advanced
Nuclear Research
22
Generation IV Systems

• Acronym Spectrum Fuel
  cycle
• SFR Sodium Cooled Fast R. Fast Closed
• LFR Lead Alloy Cooled R. Fast Closed
• GFR Gas Cooled Fast R. Fast Closed
• VHTR Very High Temperature R. Thermal
  Once-through
• SCWR Supercritical Water Cooled Th. F.
  Once-t. Cl.
• MSR Molten Salt R. Thermal Closed

23
Rationale for Selection

• Hopes / Promises of significant progress in
• Economy
• Safety Reliability
• Sustainibility
• Physical protection and non-proliferation
• Missions
• Electricity
• Hydrogen, Desalination, Process heat
• Variety
• Innovation, leverage on RD needs
• National priorities
• Timing

24
VHTR Very High Temperature Reactor

• Thermal spectrum, once-through uranium cycle
• Prismatic block / pebble bed fuels
• Highly ranked in economics (efficiency gt 50)
• Hydrogen production other process-heat
  applications

Above 1000 C Fuels and materials Safety
(transient)
25
SCWR Supercritical Water Cooled Reactor

• Open cycle thermal / closed fast spectrum
• High pressure, High temperature (gt22.1 Mpa, 374
  C)
• Highly ranked in economics (thermal
  efficiency, plant simplification)
• Electricity production

500/550C Corrosion and stress Materials Water
chemistry
26

• Thermal, epithermal spectrum, closed fuel
  cycle
• No need for fuel fabrication, operates at low
  pressure
• Excellent performance in waste burn down

MSR Molten Salt Reactor
700/800C Molten salt chemistry and
handling Materials Fuel cycle
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Fast Neutrons Reactorswith closed fuel cycles

• Strong advantages in terms of sustainability
• Breeding - Better use of natural resources
• Burning Better management of Plutonium and
  minor actinides
• Attractive passive safety characteristics
• Missions electricity management of actinides
• Gas, Na, Pb-Bi parallel options

28
Radiotoxicity and spent fuel management
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GIF Fast Reactors
Lead Fast Reactor 550/800C / low P. Fuels and
materials Lead or lead alloys handling
Gas Fast Reactor 850C / high P. New fuel,
materials Core design Helium turbine
Sodium Fast Reactor 550C / low P.
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Sodium-cooled Fast reactors (SFR)

• The most developed up to now
• Technological experience (France, Japan, UK,
  Russia, USA)
• Challenges
• Capital cost reduction
• Passive safety (transient) and reliability
• Strengthened proliferation resistance Industrial
  demonstration of pyroprocessing

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From technical advances to global benefits
Sustainability
Fuel Cycles
Missions Markets
Economics
Safety Reliability Proliferation Resistance
Physical Protection
Public Confidence
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Concluding remarks on Generation IV

• 3 clear assets
• A common wish to favor a nuclear renaissance
• An international robust framework to develop the
  needed RD
• A consensus towards the fast neutrons family with
  closed cycles
• The Generation IV initiative is an outstanding
  tool to help in broadening the opportunities for
  the use of nuclear energy in a sustainable
  development perspective
• and also a mean to bring young scientists and
  engineers in the nuclear sector

33
Nuclear Fusion (1)

• Fission splitting of heavy atomic nucleus
• Fusion combining light nuclei to form more
  massive nuclei
• Sun Hydrogen ? Helium - 10-15 million C
• Earth Deuterium Tritium ? Helium n E
• Major challenge understanding and control of
  plasma
• Containment magnetic or inertial
• Impurities

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Nuclear Fusion (2)

• Potential advantages of fusion reactors
• More or less unlimited supply of fuel
• Deuterium in water
• Tritium produced from lithium
• Inherently safe
• Only small amounts of long-lived highly
  radioactive waste ( but tritium !)
• Unable to produce fissile materials
• Large international co-operation ITER
• No significant contribution before the second
  half of the century

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Concluding remarks (1)

• From a sustainable development perspective,
  nuclear energy has a major role to play in the
  21st century
• Innovative technology is required and under
  development
• Increased temperature
• ? hydrogen, economics
• Fast neutrons family closed fuel cycles
• ? sustainability (resources waste mngt)

37
Concluding remarks (2)

• Existing infrastructures (equipment and teams)
  are valuable assets
• Enhanced international co-operation needed
• RD effectiveness
• Public acceptance
• OECD/NEA, promoter of international co-operation,
  willing to help
• Experience of joint projects
• GIF technical secretariat