Projecting Louisianas Future: Population Trends for Louisiana Parishes, 20102030

1
Projecting Louisianas Future Population Trends
for Louisiana Parishes, 2010-2030

• Dr. Troy C. Blanchard
• Department of Sociology
• Louisiana State University

2
Acknowledgement

• This work is a product of a collaborative effort
  between LSU and the State of Louisiana to provide
  a variety of agencies and organizations at the
  state and local level with timely demographic
  data on our state.

3
Background Information

• What are population projections and who uses
  them?
• Who projects populations and how is it
  accomplished?
• How do we interpret a population projection?
• What are the important findings from the
  2010-2030 population projections?
• What new trends are emerging that may require
  additional research?

4
What are population projections and who uses them?

• A population projection is a simulation of what a
  population will look like at some point in the
  future based on a set of assumptions.
• Projections are used by a wide variety of
  entities
• Organizations serving the elderly (Healthcare,
  Councils on Aging) use projections to identify
  areas with a fast growing elderly population.
• Businesses use projections to identify a
  particular customer base.
• Economic development groups use projections to
  identify the demand for jobs.

5
Who projects populations?

• U.S. Census Bureau calculates population
  projections for the U.S. and individual states.
• Sub-state projections are not a part of the U.S.
  Census Bureau mission
• Parishes
• Cities/Towns/Villages
• School Districts
• Most states develop some type of projection
  effort to inform policy makers.
• Louisiana Department of Administration, Office
  of Electronic Services, Louisiana State Data
  Center

6
How is a population projected?
Calculate number of deaths
Population at Time 1
Population at Time 2
Calculate number of births
Calculate net migration (inmigrants-outmigrants)
7
How is a population projected?

• Use past trends to predict future.
• Why past trends?
• Fertility and mortality patterns generally
  stable.
• Migration is the least stable of the three
  components that influence population size, so we
  use long term trends (5 or 10 year averages).
• Migration varies due to a wide variety of issues
  and is difficult to predict
• Job opportunities
• Quality of education
• Housing stock
• Access to natural amenities
• Family, social, and cultural pulls

8
How do we interpret a population projection?

• Example
• The state of Louisiana is projected to grow by
• 107,920 persons between 2010 and 2015.
• Caveat 1 If recent fertility, mortality, and
  migration trends remain the same, this will be
  the outcome.
• Caveat 2 Not set in stone, if something happens
  that changes the migration, fertility, or
  mortality rates, the outcome will change.

9
Parish Population Growth 2010-2020
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Key Points

• A large share of South Louisiana Parishes are
  growing.
• I-10/I-12 Corridor Metropolitan Areas
• Lafayette, Baton Rouge, and New Orleans
• Growth in North Louisiana Parishes is
  concentrated.
• Shreveport Metropolitan Areas
• Alexandria Metropolitan Areas

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Parishes Projected to Gain Population, 2010-2020
12
Key Points

• Top growth parishes
• Livingston (BR Metro)
• St. Tammany (NO Metro)
• Ascension (BR Metro)
• St. John (NO Metro)
• Plaquemines (NO Metro)
• Bossier (Shreveport Metro)
• DeSoto (Shreveport Metro)

13
Parish Projected to Lose Population, 2010-2020
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Key Points

• Top growth parishes
• Madison (Tallulah Micropolitan Area-Delta Region)
• Tensas (Rural-Delta Region)
• East Carroll (Rural-Delta Region)
• Winn (Rural-Central LA)
• Concordia (Natchez, MS-LA Micropolitan Area-Delta
  Region)
• Vernon (Fort Polk/DeRidder Micropolitan
  Area-Central LA)
• Catahoula (Rural-Central LA)

15
Metropolitan Area Trends
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New Trends to Consider

• Emerging population trend for Louisiana is the
  growing Hispanic population.
• Grew by 4.83 from 2007-2008.
• Nonhispanic Whites-.14
• Nonhispanic Black-1.64
• Growth occurring in both fast and slow growth
  areas
• The Lake Charles Metro leads the state with 7.7
  growth in Hispanic, but is not a fast growing
  metro (lt1 between 2007 and 2008).

17
Percent Growth in Hispanic Population for LA
Metropolitan Areas
18
Top 20 Parishes for Percent Hispanic Population
Growth
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Thank You!For More InformationDr. Troy C.
BlanchardDepartment of SociologyLouisiana State
University126 Stubbs HallBaton Rouge, LA
70803troy_at_lsu.edu(225) 578-5123