The Evidence

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CLIMATE CHANGE SERIES
The Evidence
Eric Jackson ejackson_at_carbonlesspromise.
com
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The Evidence
The Basics
The Facts
The Observations
The Credibility Factor
Last Thoughts
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The Basics
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The Climate System consists of 5 elements, all
interconnected

• Atmosphere--all systems within Earths gravity
  above the surface of the planet
• Hydrosphere--oceans, lakes, rivers
• Biosphere--all things living on Earth
• Cryosphere--ice
• Geosphere--soil and rock

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The Climate
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In any given year, tens of billions of tons of
carbon move between the atmosphere, hydrosphere,
and geosphere. Human activities add about 5.5
billion tons per year of carbon dioxide to the
atmosphere.
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Anthropogenic (man-made) greenhouse gases

• Carbon Dioxide CO2
• fossil fuels, deforestation, land use changes

• Methane CH4
• livestock, rice, landfills, natural gas

• Nitrous Oxide NO2
• commercial agriculture, land use changes

• Ozone O3
• at surface, interacts to form GHGs

• Halocarbons CFC, HFC, etc.,
• refrigerants, fire retardents

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US Anthropogenic GHG Emission Sources
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Important GHG and Sources
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Natural greenhouse gases
Water Vapor
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• Carbon Dioxide CO2
• Methane CH4
• Nitrous Oxide NO2
• Ozone O3

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Methane Cycle
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What is the greenhouse effect?
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The Facts
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Monthly Measurements at Manau Loa
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Fossil Fuels Arrive
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Antarctic Vostok ice core 2.2 miles deep,
420,000 years of temperature and greenhouse gas
data
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Atmospheric CO2 Projections
Text
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The Observations
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Baffin Island
5th Largest island in the world Located just
west of Greenland
Ice cap has shrunk 50 over last 50 years and
will be gone by 2050University of Colorado Boulder
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Greenland

• 25 size of USA
• 80 covered by ice sheet
• 5 of all world ice, if melted 21 feet global
  sea level rise

Summer ice melt in 2007 exceeded previous record
of 2005 by 10.
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Glacier Park
The Montana park has 26 named glaciers today,
down from 150 in 1850. Those that remain are
typically mere remnants of their former frozen
selves
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Argentina
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Average Arctic Sea ice extent in September 2007
was the lowest on record, shattering the previous
record of 2005 by 23. Arctic will likely be
ice-free in summer by 2030.
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Roughly twice as many hurricanes are now reported
in the Atlantic compared to a century ago. The
increase is associated with rises in sea-surface
temperature. National Center for Atmospheric
Research
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In both the North Atlantic and North Pacific
oceans, the duration of tropical cyclones as well
as their strongest wind speeds have both
increased by about 50 over the past 50 years.
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
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The number of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes
worldwide nearly doubled from the early 1970s to
the early 2000s. Georgia Institute of Technology
and NCAR
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Why do we believe the climate is changing? The
globe is warming. Averaged over all land and
ocean surfaces, temperatures today are about
0.75ºC warmer than at the beginning of the 20th
Century. Rates of temperature rise are greater in
recent decades. University Corporation for
Atmospheric Research
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Climate Change i.e. Global Warming does not mean
that equal and even changes will be observed
everywhere
rising sea level
increase drought
melting polar regions
increase rain
glacial retreat
altered agriculture
species ranges
storm intensity/frequency
disease ranges
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The Credibility Factor
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Most Reliable
Expertise
Truth
Professional organizations
Statements that contradict normal bias
Science
Peer-reviewed science
Nature
Proceedings from Nat Acad Science
Universities
Petitions
Think tanks
Advocacy groups
Individual professional
Individual layperson
Least Reliable
Bias
Support for my beliefs
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U.S. scientists and economists call for swift and
deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions....

• More than 1,700 scientists and economists
• 6 Nobel Prize winners
• 30 members of National Academy of Sciences
• 10 members of National Academy of Engineering
• 10 recipients of MacArthur Fellowship
• over 100 members of Intergovernmental Panel on
  CLimate Change (IPCC co-winner of 2007 Nobel
  Peace Prize)

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American Association for the Advancement of
Science
150 years old
gt144,000 members
The scientific evidence is clear global climate
change caused by human activities is occurring
now, and it is a growing threat to society.
Accumulating data from across the globe reveal a
wide array of effects rapidly melting glaciers,
destabilization of major ice sheets, increases in
extreme weather, rising sea level, shift in
species ranges, and more. Approved by AAAS
Board December 9, 2006
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American Association for the Advancement of
Science
The pace of change and the evidence of harm have
increased markedly over the last five years. The
time to control greenhouse gas emissions is
now. Approved by AAAS Board December 9, 2006
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American Association for the Advancement of
Science
Delaying action to address climate change will
increase the environmental and social
consequences as well as the costs. The longer we
wait to tackle climate change, the harder and
more expensive the task will be. Approved by
AAAS Board December 9, 2006
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National Academy of Sciences
gt2,100 members
gt200 Nobel Prizes
146 years old
The scientific understanding of climate change
is now sufficiently clear to justify nations
taking prompt action. Joint Science Academies
Statement June, 2005
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National Academy of Sciences

• We call on world leaders to
• Acknowledge that the threat of climate change is
  clear and increasing, and
• Recognize that delayed action will increase the
  risk of adverse environmental effects and will
  likely incur a greater cost
• Joint Science Academies Statement June, 2005

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Regarding climate change, what we now have is the
peer-reviewed equivalent of the American Medical
Association declaring that smoking is bad for
you. At the time, some doctors disagreed....
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And now, we also have corporations presenting
contradictory positions
US Climate Action Partnership
Shell BP Conoco Phillips Ford GM Chrysler GE Dupon
t PGE
Alcoa Caterpillar Deere Co Duke Energy NRG
Energy, Inc Siemens Xerox Dow Chemical
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US Climate Action Partnership
A group of businesses and leading environmental
organizations that have come together to call on
the federal government to quickly enact strong
national legislation to require significant
reductions of greenhouse gas emissions
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Dateline January 15, 2009
Washington, D.C.
This morning the US Climate Action Partnership
released its Blueprint for Legislative Action.
The United States faces an urgent need to
reinvigorate our nations economy, enhance energy
security and take meaningful action to slow, stop
and reverse GHG emissions to address climate
change.
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Dateline January 15, 2009
Washington, D.C.
USCAP agrees that the science is sufficiently
clear to justify prompt action to protect our
environment. Each year of delayed action to
control emissions increases the risk of
unavoidable consequences that could necessitate
even steeper reductions in the future, with
potentially greater economic cost and social
disruption.
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Last Thoughts
No one will be immune, but climate change will
have a disproportionate effect on the lives of
people living in poverty in developing countries.
Between 1990 and 1998, 94 per cent of the worlds
568 major natural disasters, and more than 97 per
cent of all natural disaster-related deaths, were
in developing countries. Oxfam Policy Paper on
Climate Change
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Last Thoughts
Now is the time for followers of Christ to help
solve the global warming crisis. There is
overwhelming evidence that human activity is a
major cause, and we know that the impacts of
climate change would be hardest on the poor and
vulnerable, and on future generations. Evangelic
al Climate Initiative
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Next in the Climate Change Series....
The Arguments
January 25 at 9 and 1030 AM January 29 at 7 PM
Eric Jackson ejackson_at_carbonlesspromise.
com