Climate Change Impacts on Water: What Municipal Managers need to know

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Climate Change Impacts on WaterWhat Municipal
Managers need to know

• Gordon McBean, Ph.D., FRSC
• Chair in Policy
• Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction
• Professor
• Departments of Political Science and Geography
• The University of Western Ontario

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Weather has major impacts on Canadians
Ice storm
Storm surges

• Saguenay
• Flood

Forest fires
Droughts
Tornadoes
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• Approaches to changing natural hazards
• RECOVERY
• ANTICIPATE through Forecasts and warnings
• advise people about impending events and advise
  on response strategy
• examples flash flood seasonal drought climate
  change
• Flash flood - 10 minutes
• run for high places
• River cresting in next 5 days
• Prepare for evacuation implement emergency
  responses
• Drought over next season
• Implement water management strategies
• MITIGATION - ADAPTATION
• adopt standards and codes to protect
  infrastructure, people, etc., from reasonable
  extremes
• examples building codes
• increased likelihood of flash floods, winter
  storms, coastal storm surges modify building
  codes prepare response strategies

Prevention
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The Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction

• Growing costs have led Canadas (and other
  countries) insurance companies to get involved.
• ICLR Mission
• reduce loss of life and property caused by severe
  weather, weather-related events and earthquakes
  through identification and support of sustained
  actions that improve societys capacity to
• adapt to anticipate mitigate withstand and
  recover from natural disasters
• FOCUS ON PREVENTION

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Canadian Natural Disasters 1900-2000
(OCIPEP database)
Weather related disasters
Weather related disasters
Geophysical disasters
2000
1900
1950
Year
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How will this change in the future? As the
climate changes?
By 2100 1.5-3 times 1990 value
?CO2 ? (pop)(?(GDP/pop)? (energy/GDP)?
(CO2/energy)
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As the greenhouse gas concentration increases,
how will global mean temperature (and other
climate characteristics) change?
Risk management
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Warmer winters

• Reduced heating costs
• Less snow, more rain
• Implications for runoff, erosion, stream flow,
  snow removal, road maintenance, etc.

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Hotter summers

• Heat stress, Cooling costs increased
• More growing degree days
• But also more intense damaging precipitation
  events

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Ensemble of precipitation responses () at 2100
under scenario A2
Cubasch et al, IPCC, 2001
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Projected Winter Precipitation Change Between
1975-1995 and 2010-2030 Combined Effects of
Projected Greenhouse Gas and Sulphate Aerosol
Increases - Canadian Model
Some increased winter precipitation over
Ontario More rain less snow
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Projected Summer Precipitation Change Between
1975-1995 and 2080-2100 Combined Effects of
Projected Greenhouse Gas and Sulphate Aerosol
Increases - Canadian Model
Changed summer precipitation - droughts - food
production Also - changes in extremes
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IPCC Quantification of of Change
90-99
66-90
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Projected worldwide increase in extreme rainfall
CCCma
Hadley
Source Kharin et Zwiers (2000)
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Change in Northern Hemisphere cyclone frequency
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Projected change in extreme precipitation
Extreme Precipitation Events (Canada)
Implications for water supply and Storm sewer
systems? More flash floods? Farming? Culvert and
road design?
95
2090
90
85
2050
80
Size of event (mm)
75
1985
70
65
60
55
50
20
40
30
50
60
10
80
70
Event recurrence time (Years)
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toce coupling
Flash Floods risk increases
400 mm
200 mm
72 hours Precipitation Accumulation MC2 (10 km)
MODEL COUPLING
Observed
Toce drainage
Calculated
TOCE outflow (cms) Watflood (2 km)
0-72 hours
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Lake levels have varied in past.
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Great Lakes Water Levels
Current Projected Ranges
1 metre drop in lake level possible
X Average, 1918-1998
X Projected for 2XCO2, assuming no change in
natural variability
(CCC GCMII from Morstch
Quinn, 1996)
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The scientific consensus is that the climate will
change and the characteristics of extremes will
also change.
We need to adopt new codes and practices to adapt.
How to factor risk into Municipal management.
FCM-Green Funds
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ICLR Research Themes

• Reducing wind and earthquake damage to housing,
  buildings and infrastructure (with focus on
  housing)
• Understanding disaster risk management and
  prevention
• Government science related to natural disasters
• Improving community actions for disaster
  mitigation

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• Concerns and Issues
• Government and public focus on Kyoto
• Adaptation into the mind-frame of governments,
  decision makers
• Water managers are beginning to consider
  adapting to climate changehowever, the extent
  of adaptation by many water managers is
  uncertain.
• Structural Adaptations
• projected hydrological changes, as well as the
  economic, social and ecological costs of the
  adaptation.
• Institutional Adaptations and Considerations

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Research Challenges

• Water systems need to be understood and managed
  in a broad context
• climate change is just one stressor
• systems already under stress
• broad uses (domestic, commercial, navigation,
  recreation, power development, )
• Health and social issues water quality as well
  as quantity
• Water pricing and policy/legislation
• Thresholds and extremes (drought and flooding)
  need to be understood and quantified in risk
  management way

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Research Challenges (continued)

• Need to have a broad disciplinary approach
• Social, political, economic, health and legal
  sciences as well as natural and engineering
  sciences
• Integrative studies of water resources planning,
  projecting the future role and influence of
  water managers on adaptive capacity
• Water management structures and institutions
• Social, economic and environmental costs and
  benefits of future adaptations
• Water management agreements and climate change
• Need information for analysis hydrological,
  groundwater, socio-economic, political

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Canadian science-based approach to climate change

• Emission-reduction strategy
• Long-term - many Kyotos
• Drive the innovation agenda
• Options for first step
• Address the climate debt nationally and
  internationally

• Adaptation Strategy
• Adaptation investments directly help Canadians
• Protecting Canadians from harm and information to
  maximize economic efficiency
• Based on better predictions of change

Science and technology to support both. -
long-term (multi-decadal commitments)
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• Water and Cities
• warnings and planning
• reducing loss of life and property

Thank you the end