Feasibility of Ethanol in Thailand

1
Feasibility of Ethanol in Thailand

• Presented by CEP-KMUTT Research Group
• An academic exchange between the University of
  North Carolina at Chapel Hill and King Mongkuts
  University of Technology Thonburi with the help
  of Kenan Institute Asia

2
Feasibility of Ethanol in Thailand
Faculty Advisors
3. Prof Richard Kamens (UNC-Ch)
1. Associate Dean Pojanie Kummongkol (KMUTT)
2. Aajarn Suthipong Sthiannopakao (KMUTT)
3
Feasibility of Ethanol in Thailand

• Why ethanol?
• National security
• Carbon-neutral fuel source
• Trade deficit reduction
• Domestic economic stimulus

4
Ethanol in Thailand

• What constitutes feasibility?
• Economics
• Technology
• Land Availability/Distribution
• Environment
• Society
• Sustainability ? interrelated nature of these
  factors

5
Important Questions

• 1. What feedstocks fit Thailand? How does this
  inform technology?
• 2. What system of distribution (production
  facilities and land ownership among farmers) is
  best for Thailand? How is this decision made?
  How will this affect society?
• 3. Is ethanol an economic possibility? How does
  this inform technology?
• 4. What are the possible social and environmental
  negatives? How does this inform policy
  decisions? Economics?

6
Format of Presentation

• Background
• Current Government Policy and Price Structure
• Production Technology
• End-Use Technology
• Land/Feedstock Availability and Production
  Distribution (GIS)
• Social Implications
• Ground-level ozone production in Bangkok (OZIPW)
• Conclusions

7
BACKGROUND
In 1977, the federal government set up the
Ethanol Production from Sugarcane Committee In
1978, the government changed the name of this
committee to the Ethanol Production from
Agricultural Residue Committee In 1980, the
Ministry of Industry announced the policy to
produce ethanol as a fuel by regulating the
standards used to determine the establishment of
ethanol plant
8
BACKGROUND
Pilot-scale Production of Power Alcohol from
Cassava was entrusted to the Thailand Institute
of Scientific and Technological Research by the
Cabinets approval in January 1981 1. In
1997,Thailands economy crashed and OPEC
decreased their production of oil causing the
retail price of gasoline began to increase. 2.
In 1999, Thailand lost money to imported oil-
more than 1,680 million baht ?ethanol production
project on September 19, 1999
9
BACKGROUND
The government considered to solve these problem
by setting up the ethanol production project on
19 September 1999 The ministry of Industry was
entrusted to set up the National Ethanol
Committee by the Thai Cabinet s approval
10
CURRENT GOVERNMENT POLICY and Ethanol Price
Structures
11
The National Ethanol Committee relate with other
agencies

• 1.Raw Material Measure
• Coordinate with the Ministry of Agriculture and
  cooperatives
• to determine the production plan of raw material
  supply
• Raw materials must be
• stable price
• Produced to export
• The possible raw materials for Thailand are
  cassava, sugarcane, and molasses.

12
The National Ethanol Committee relate with other
agencies
Raw material cost per unit of ethanol production
Average cost all Kingdom at farm, plantation
year 1999/2000 Average cost all Kingdom at
farm, plantation year 1998/1999 Office of
Agricultural Economics and office of Committee on
Sugarcane and Cane Sugar
13
The National Ethanol Committee relate with other
agencies

• Cassava policy
• Cassava yield 2600 kilograms per rai
• Dose not promote farmer to expand the planted
  area to increase the quantity
• Support the use of new species with higher
  yields.
• The office of Agricultural Economics formulates
  cassava plan for plantation year 2001/2002
• To stabilize the price of cassava throughout the
  season
• To promote and support production of new value
  added products such as alcohol.

14
The National Ethanol Committee relate with other
agencies

• Conclusion
• To stabilize the price of cassava will result in
• the cost stabilization of ethanol produced from
  cassava feedstock.
• the price of cassava in the world market will not
  affect ethanol production business.
• To ensure a steady demand for farmer to produce
  adequate amounts of cassava to meet investors
  requirement.

15
The National Ethanol Committee relate with other
agencies
2. Financial and Investment Measure Tax and the
amount of surcharge collected structure I) An
excise tax of fuel alcohol 0.05 baht/liter II)
The excise tax of octane 95 and octane 91
unleaded gasoline 3.685 baht per liter III)
Municipal tax collected is 10 of excise tax IV)
Oil Fund has been 0.5 baht/liter for octane 95
and 0.3 baht/ liter for octane 91. Energy
Conservation Fund equal to 0.04 baht per liter
for octane 95 and octane 91 unleaded gasoline
16
The National Ethanol Committee relate with other
agencies
2.1 Tax and Price Measures The National Ethanol
Committee approves the excise tax measure and
gasohol price policy a) Coordinate with the
Ministry of Finance to exempt the excise tax for
fuel ethanol. b) Regulate the ethanol fraction
in gasohol at 10 and reduces the gasohol excise
tax by 10. c) Coordinate with NEPO to exempt
or reduce the amount of surcharge collected from
Oil Fund and Energy Conservation Fund for gasohol
(ethanol price is lower than octane 95 gasoline 1
baht/liter).
17
Price structure of gasoline and gasohol on March
8, 2000 (unit
baht/liter)
Source NEPO
18
The National Ethanol Committee relate with other
agencies

• d) The National Ethanol Committee will consider
  the establishment of an Ethanol Price
  Stabilization Fund
• The Committee wants the ethanol price to be
  stable to assure that
• the factory can produce ethanol
• to assure raw material price from the farmer.

19
The National Ethanol Committee relate with other
agencies

• The Ethanol Price Stabilization fund
• MTBE price that is not stable, depends on the oil
  price in the worlds market.
• When MTBE price is lower than ethanol price, the
  refinery plant will not consider using ethanol.
• When ethanol price is lower than the price of
  MTBE, the ethanol plant will receive a large
  profit without distribution of that profit to
  farmers.

20
The National Ethanol Committee relate with other
agencies

• The Ethanol Price Stabilization fund (cont..)
• To solve these problem by
• collecting extra profit that arise from such
  conditions
• pay the ethanol plant when the price of ethanol
  is higher than the price of MTBE.
• The stability that this policy will provide will
  ensure that the price of ethanol never exceeds
  that of MTBE.

21
The National Ethanol Committee relate with other
agencies
2.2 The Other Measures a) Coordinate with the
Ministry of Finance to grant permission to the
investor to sale ethanol within domestic fuel
market. b) Coordinate with the Ministry of
Industry to instruct Petroleum Authority of
Thailand (PTT) to consider co-investment in
production of fuel ethanol and also distribution
and sale of gasohol. c) The Ministry of Finance
urges the Thai Cabinet to cut the tax on vehicles
that run on alternative fuels such as ethanol.
22
The National Ethanol Committee relate with other
agencies
3.Privilege Measure The investor will receive
maximum privileges and incentives provided by
Board of Investment (BOI) Under the Priority
Activities Program 1) ethanol companies will be
allowed an eight-year corporate tax
holiday,regardless of location 2) will be able
to import ethanol plant machinery without paying
duties, regardless of location For a newly
establishment projects, the Companies must have a
ratio of liabilities registered capitals not
excess of 3 1
23
The National Ethanol Committee relate with other
agencies

• 4.Usage Promotion Measure
• Coordinate with government agencies and state
  enterprises
• To set the priority use of gasohol for all
  official cars,
• To run campaigns for general public to give
  information on gasohol and promote the use of
  gasohol.

24
The National Ethanol Committee relate with other
agencies

• 5.Production Quality Measure
• a) Coordinates with the Ministry of Industry to
  review and update ethanol and gasohol standards.
• b) Coordinates with the Ministry of Commerce to
• review the Ministry Announcement on Gasoline
  Quality Definition
• or
• add definition of gasohol quality in particular
  in order to support the use of ethanol as fuel.

25
The National Ethanol Committee relate with other
agencies
6.Other Support Measure Other support measures
proposed by the proponent can be submitted for
consideration.
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Production Technology
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Production Technology

• Ethanol can be produced from simple sugars by
  fermentation
• Ethanol via fermentation can utilize a variety of
  feedstocks- sugar, starch, biomass
• How do feedstocks inform technology?

28
Production Technology

• Non-saccharine feedstocks must be saccharified to
  fermentable sugars
• Starch feedstocks
• -rely on mature, conventional technology
• -has been researched and is currently used in
  Thailand
• Biomass feedstocks
• -require advanced technology for hydrolysis of
  cellulosic or lignocellulosic material, various
  technologies exist such as acid, steam
  disruption, GMOs

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Saccharification of Feedstocks Conventional
Technology

• Starchy materials may be liquefied and
  saccharified using mature enzyme technology
• 
  

Pretreatment
Liquefication
Saccharification
Fermentation
Based on conventional conversion technology-
Shreves Chemical Process Industries. McGraw-Hill
International Editions. 1984.
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Advanced Technology

• Biomass conversion
• Refined use of acid hydrolysis
• -dilute processes
• -concentrated processes
• Intense research and ever-increasing use of
  enzyme developments
• -Genetically engineered bacteria and fungi and
  enzyme production
• Simultaneous Saccharification and Fermentation,
  SSF
• Simultaneous Saccharification and
  Co-Fermentation, SSCF
• Such technologies have yet to achieve widespread
  commercialization

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Saccharification of FeedstocksA Concentrated
Acid Example
www.arkenol.com
32
Saccharification of FeedstocksA Dilute Acid
Example

• BC International Corporation boasts a simplified
  biomass to ethanol process employing a marriage
  of dilute acid and enzymatic technologies

Various ag. residues, for example rice hulls
Dilute acid treatment to release sugars
GMO, KO11 produces alcohol
To further distillation
Flow diagram adapted from www.bcintlcorp.com
33
Economic Trends
Wyman, Charles. Biomass Ethanol Technical
Progress, Opportunities, and Commercial
Challenges. Annu. Rev. Energy Environ. 1999.
34
Economic Trends

• The previous slide indicates that the cost of
  ethanol has decreased consistently with advances
  in enzyme technology
• The greatest areas for cost reduction are found
  in the initial processes of cellulose to ethanol
  technology and these potential reductions are
  significant-as low as 0.50/gal to 0.34/gal as
  projected by Chem Systems and NREL studies

Wyman, Charles. Biomass Ethanol Technical
Progress, Opportunities, and Commercial
Challenges. Annu. Rev. Enerby Environ. 1999.
35
Technology in the Future andProjected Cost
Reductions

• Completely enzymatic processes
• -no acid or explosion treatment, only hot water
  and enzymes
• NREL estimates potential 0.14/gal and 0.19/gal
  reductions for concentrated and dilute acid
  processes respectively
• However, the greatest reductions are still
  estimated to come from implementation of
  completely enzymatic processes

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Conclusions

• Thailand has the capability to produce ethanol
  using conventional technologies
• As the market expands and advanced technologies
  mature, greater amounts of cheaper ethanol may be
  produced
• The suggestion given here is for foresight,
  flexibility, and diversity.
• Ultimately, specific analyses will have to be
  performed to determine when and where newer
  technology may be implemented

37

END USE TECHNOLOGY
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DIVIDED IN 2 PARTS
1. ALCOHOL-GASOLINE BLENDING
2. ALCOHOL-DIESEL FUEL BLENDING
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1. ALCOHOL-GASOLINE BLENDING

• 10 ethanol blend doesnt change significantly
  properties of gasoline.
• Above 15 by volume, negative effects begin to
  appear
• (found in a fleet test conducted of motor cars
  in Thailand)
• Hydrated ethanol (95 to 96 purity) has a cost
  advantage over
• the anhydrous ethanol (purity 99 and higher)
• Hydrous ethanol causes corrosive effects
• The blended fuel tends to separate into 2 layers
  when a small content of
• ethanol and if the ambient temperature drops
  towards the freezing point

40
Fuel mileage comparison between Gasohol Vs
Gasoline engine (Saengbangpla, 2001)
Total in graph is summarized in size, age, used
or un-used catalytic converter, brand name,
European or Japanese,injection or carburetor
engine and type of fuel (octane 91 or 95)
41
Properties of Gasohol
42
Gasohol use by various vehicles in Thailand
(Saengbangpla, 2001). This shows that there are
many different potential consumers of gasohol.
43
Effect of using gasohol in engine
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USING GASOHOL
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2. ALCOHOL-DIESEL FUEL BLENDING

• Diesel fuel blend containing up to 20 anhydrous
  ethanol
• can be used to run unmodified diesel engines.
• Higher ethanol conc. tend to delay ignition by
  compression
• QUENCH EFFECT
• An emulsifier was added when blending hydrated
  ethanol
• with diesel fuel...engines running on this
  blend suffered noticeable quench and misfiring

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2. ALCOHOL-DIESEL FUEL BLENDING (continue)

• This level blend attacks incompatible parts of
  fuel system
• and causes considerable changes in fuel
  characteristics
• Must use a high compression ratio or ignition
  improver
• Must modify diesel-engine
  alcohol-engine
• Add some equipment for feed process (feed
  ethanol)

47
Effect of using Diesohol in engine
48
CONCLUSION

• 10 ethanol is the best percentage
• Power when Ethanol
• Effect on some type of rubber and plastic
  equipment
• Emulsifier must be added when blending hydrated
• ethanol with diesel fuel
• The exhaust gases will increase when the ethanol
  is
• injected the feed process must be
  adjusted through
• further research and development

49
Land/Feedstock Availability and Production
Distribution
50
Feedstocks

• Major Potential Feedstocks
• Cassava
• Sugarcane (molasses)
• Future Possibilities (lignocellulosic technology)
• Agricultural Residues
• Biogases
• Rice Husk
• Industry biomass Waste

51
Price of Possible Feedstocks
Selling Price of Feedstocks at the Farm (data
from 2000 Ministry of Industry)
52
Cassava

• 75 Exported (around 12 million tons)
• environmentally Sustainable
• Drought resistant
• Small Scale farms (0.5-2 HA)
• Low maintenance (pesticides/fertilizers)
• Cassava Chips
• Chips produced in high season and stored (low
  price)
• Drying Process-Environmental Impacts
• 50 inmprovement/government loans
• Converting 10 of Thailand petrol consumption to
  ethanol would require approximately 4.64 million
  tons of cassava a year
• Mark Jones, Ford Motors, personal email
  communication 2001

53
Cassava Production 1999 (data from Office of
Agricultural Statistics)
54
Sugar Cane/ Molasses

• As agricultural markets are variable, a wise
  policy would rely on more than one feedstock
• molasses (supplementary feedstock)
• seasonal (Nov. to March)
• 50 of the molasses exported
• easily converted to ethanol production
• this surplus (around 1 million liters) would be
  sufficient to produce, daily, 800,000 liters of
  ethanol per a day and not interfere with
  domestic market
• facilities could easily be annexed to present
  sugar cane production plants
• Sriroth, Kesestart University

55
Thailand Sugar Production 1998/99 (Agricultural
Statistics of Thailand 1999)
56
Distribution (GIS)

• Plant location can have significant economic,
  social, and environmental consequences.
• North Eastern Thailand
• Centralized vs. Decentralized
• A GIS (Geographic Information System) was used to
  model locations of various possible feedstocks,
  infrastructure, population, and economic data

57
highest cassava producing provinces with GPP
below 70,000 baht/capita were selected for each
province then one province was selcted based on
casssava production for a more centralized plant
location
58
Provinces were selected that had a GPP less than
30,000 baht/year and at least 100,000 tons of
Sugar Cane and Cassava produced a year Kalasin,
Khon Kaen, and Chaiyaphum top provinces
59
Khon Kaen (cassava) and Udon Thani (Sugar Cane)
would be ideal locations for centralized plant
due to production and proximity to petrolium
refineries
60
Impacts

• North Eastern Thailand
• very impoverished
• average annual per capita GPP of less than 30,000
  baht
• Ethanol production
• increased local employment
• increassed infastructure
• higher personal incomes
• potential for future industrial growth

61
Conclusions

• Distribution Throughout Thailand
• heavily concentrated in the Northeast
• 95 (anhydrous) decentralized plants to 100
  centalized plants
• Regional Centralized Facilities located near
  petrolium refineries
• Ideal size 10,000 gallons of ethanol a day
• common selling commercial plant size)
• easily regulated (black Market Ethanol sales
• (Klanarong Sriroth 2001)
• Sustainable Transportation (biodeisel/ neat
  ethanol trucks)

62
Ethanol and Society
63
Ethanol and Society

• Premise improving the welfare of the rural poor
  improves welfare of the country as a whole (the
  converse is also true)
• Ultimate goal ensure that welfare of this sector
  of society does not depreciate (and ideally
  appreciates)
• How to assess potential social effects?
• Brazilian and local experiences
• A guide to policy!!

64
Ethanol and Society

• Questions
• What is the current economic status of the rural
  agricultural sector?
• rural vs urban
• regional differences
• What are the potential social negatives?
• Rural Displacement/Urban Migration
• Job Loss, Rural Poverty, Instability

65
Ethanol and Society

• Questions
• Land constraints?
• little room for growth without overtaking other
  agricultural land?? negative socially?
• will push Thailand in an agriculturally intensive
  direction -- GOOD
• How can Thailand assure economic benefits flow to
  those who are most in need?

66
Ethanol and Society

• Thailand Demographics
• Income gaps and Economic divisions
• Rural vs Urban
• Central vs North and Northeast
• Agriculture vs Industry
• Past 20 years gaps increasing rapidly
• 1997 Economic Crash
• Lots of potential labor

67
Ethanol and Society

• Farm Incomes by Region (Agricultural Statistics
  of Thailand, 2000)

68
Ethanol and Society

• Three social imperatives
• positive job creation of equal or greater value
  than previous employment
• Brazil
• fair land distribution (decentralization)
• Small-scale
• LOCAL reinvestment
• How does this inform policy decisions??

69
Ethanol and Society

• Policy
• Short-term financial insurance for ethanol
  workers until diversity of feedstocks is achieved
• Protect against consolidation ensure job
  creation in spite of mechanization
• Contract Farming and Cooperatives source of
  power for small farmers

70
Ethanol and Society

• Policy
• Federal taxes to be reinvested publicly into
  rural agricultural areas contributing to ethanol
  program
• Tax the net cassava and/or ethanol price (between
  1-5)
• Reserve a percentage of the net savings in trade
  balance
• Ethanol Price Stabilization Fund tax ethanol
  plants profit when ethanol price is low
• Rural autonomy

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Ethanol and Society

• Local Parallels and Opportunities
• Small Power Producers (SPP) program
• Positive internal rate of return (IRR)
• Electricity and for ethanol program
• Extra income
• Cooperatives agricultural sector
• Community voice for bargaining power
• Ease transition into ethanol program
• Help maintain the small-scale structure already
  in place (especially with cassava)
• Biodiesel production in the South
• Fuel ethanol transportation trucks
• Improve carbon balance
• Include the South in the ethanol program

72
Ethanol and Society

• Conclusion
• High potential for socio-economic development and
  improvement in rural agricultural regions

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Environment Ground-level Ozone
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Environmental Impacts

• Land Degradation
• Ethanol Spill
• Atmosphere
• Ethanol in fuel will add additional aldehyde to
  the atmosphere ? O3
• GROUND-LEVEL OZONE
• Associated with numerous health effects in humans
  and plants
• A primary constituent of smog

75
Questions

• How will increased ethanol use affect
  ground-level ozone concentrations in the BMR
  (Bangkok Metropolitan Region)?
• How will other compounds (i.e. VOCs, NOx) affect
  ozone production in the BMR?
• How effective a tool is OZIPW for the BMR in
  gauging these questions?

76
OZIPW (Ozone Isopleth plotting package
Windows) Simple atmospheric trajectory model
77
Example ozone concentration graph from OZIPW
Conc. ppm ?
O3
NO
NO2
Time in hours ?
78
Localize the model to the BMR

• NOx, VOC, CO, and aldehyde emissions (kg/km2)
• Temperature, humidity, mixing height
• Wind speed and direction
• Motor vehicle fleet breakdown (i.e. types of
  vehicles and their emissions)
• Ambient ground-level ozone levels
• Uses different photochemical mechanisms (CALCM,
  CB4CM)

79
Basic Procedure

• 1. Is OZIPW sufficiently representing the BMR
  atmosphere?
• Run OZIPW with local emissions and meteorological
  data and obtain graph
• Make composite graph of real ozone data
• Compare ambient data with OZIPW output with no
  changes made
• 2. Gauging effects of O3 formation from ethanol
  use
• add localized atmospheric and ambient data
• add additional aldehyde emissions
• changes to other emissions due to ethanol use
• Aldehyde chemistry represented in the model
  already

80
Acetaldehyde Chemistry in CB4

• ALD2 O. ? C2O3 OH 1.739E04 _at_ 986
• ALD2 OH ? C2O3 1.037E04 _at_-250
• ALD2 NO3 ? C2O3HNO3 3.700 E00
• ALD2 ? XO2 2HO2 CO FORM
  1.000E-03 /R5

81
Establish the model represents Bangkok Atmoshpere

• Composite graphs of ozone and NOx for Bangkok
  atmosphere
• One low-ozone day (March 8, 2000), one high-ozone
  day (March 12, 2000)
• Ambient ground-level ozone and NOx in Bangkok
• Several stations located throughout the BMR
• Wind data (direction and speed)
• Map of BMR

82
Example Diagram Application of Wind Data
Bangkok
83
Application of Wind Data
Bangkok
6
4
3
5
1
2
84
March 12, 2000
85
Low Ozone Day Compilation Table time scale
based on wind speed and direction
86
March 8, 2000 low ozone day
87
March 12, 2000 high ozone day
88
OZIPW graphs for comparison to ambient data

• NOx, VOC, and CO emissions (kg/km2)
• Temperature, humidity, mixing height
• Time data (extrapolate total emissions into
  hourly)
• Output Graphs

89
Table For Total BMR Vehicle VOC Emissions
Pollution Control Department
90
Meterological Data was inputted into the model
Department of Meteorology
91
Emissions data extrapolated hourly over the
course of the day
This table shows time distribution of emissions
data by hour according to the Bureau of Land
Transportation, and accounts for percent hourly
emissions.
92
We then compared the model output with ambient
NOx and O3 data
93
Comparison between PCD Graph data with OZIPW
Graph data (Low Ozone day)
94
Comparison between PCD Graph data with OZIPW
Graph data (High Ozone day)
95
Next, OZIPW inputs were changed to gauge the
effect of ethanol on the BMR atmosphere.

• The following sets of trials were run
• Aldehydes were increased to represent differences
  from ethanol use in the BMR.
• VOCs increased and decreased
• Comparisons between MTBE and ethanol were made
  with respect to catalytic and non-catalytic
  vehicles.
• Finally the different mechanism files were
  changed to ensure continuity.

Thummarat Thummadetsak, et.al. (1999) Effect of
Gasoline Compositions and Properties on Tailpipe
Emissions of Currently Existing Vehicles in
Thailand, SAE International.
96
Comparison between initial condition with adding
ALD 20 of VOCs (Low Ozone day)
ppm
ppm
97
Comparison between initial condition with adding
ALD 20 of VOCs (High Ozone day)
98
Comparison between using EtOH 7.5 (with
catalyts) with MTBE 7.5 (Low Ozone Day)
99
Comparison between using EtOH 7.5 (with
catalyts) with MTBE 7.5 (High Ozone day)
100
Comparison between using EtOH 15 (with catalyts)
with MTBE 7.5 (Low Ozone day)
101
Comparison between using EtOH 15 (with catalyts)
with MTBE 7.5 (High Ozone day)
102
Comparison between cat-car with non-cat-car (EtOH
7.5 low ozone day)
103
Comparison between cat-car with non-cat-car (EtOH
7.5 high ozone day)
104
Ideal table if all relevant information were
available demonstrates possibilites
105
General Conclusions

• By adding ethanol to the fuel there will be
  increases in the amount of ground-level ozone
  produced in the BMR due to the additional
  aldehyde emissions.
• Decrease in VOC will increase ozone further
• Low ozone days will experience greater increases
  in ozone than high ozone days.
• Little difference between catalytic and
  non-catalytic cars

106
General Conclusions

• OZIPW is a viable modeling program to simulate
  atmospheric conditions in the BMR.
• Basic policy questions specific to ethanol and
  the BMR can be answered by using this model.
• Locally speaking, it is still unclear if ethanol
  use will make the air cleaner in Bangkok!

107
Ideas For Further Study

• The relationship between NOx and ground-level
  ozone production ethanol vehicles will increase
  NOx ? potentially more ozone
• Effect ethanol will have on increasing
  Peroxyacetylnitrate (PAN) a source of NO2 ?
  drive O3 formation reactions.
• Accurate and detailed data from the BMR is needed
  to more comprehensively predict changes in ozone
  production.

108
Conclusion

• FEASIBILITY of ethanol production and use in
  Thailand
• Conclusions can be divided into two sections
• SHORT-TERM
• LONG-TERM

109
Conclusion

• Short-Term
• Can provide 10 percent substitution from the
  amount of cassava exported
• Limited to conventional technologies
• Need a government support program to ensure price
  competitiveness
• Can provide net increase in jobs (of equal or
  better quality) in rural agricultural areas
• Production facility distribution should be mid to
  large size
• Land-ownership distribution should remain
  decentralized
• Will likely increase ground-level ozone
  concentrations in the BMR

110
Conclusion

• Long-term
• Possible to increase 10 percent replacement value
  as technology and feedstock diversity matures
  (i.e. significant potential for growth without
  inflicting on society or the environment)
• Good investment due to increasing price trend of
  oil
• Public reinvestment of revenues from the ethanol
  program must occur in the rural areas responsible
  for its success
• The OZIPW can provide an inexpensive and quick
  tool to inform policy questions regarding
  atmospheric quality in the BMR

111
Conclusion

• SUSTAINABILITY ? DESIRABILITY
• Co-related
• Combine economic/technolgic realities with social
  and environmental necessities
• Beyond definition of feasibility is the ethanol
  program desirable?
• Sustainability Ethanol program must sustain
  needs of the current society without inflicting
  on the needs future societies