Climate Change: A Context for Reflection on the Responsibilities of the Faith Community

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Climate Change A Context for Reflection on the
Responsibilities of the Faith Community

• Eugene S. Takle, PhD, CCM
• Professor of Atmospheric Science
• Professor of Agricultural Meteorology
• Iowa State University
• Ames, Iowa 50011
• gstakle_at_iastate.edu

St Andrews Lutheran Church, 12 November 2006
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Outline

• Changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide
• Radiative forcing
• Simulations of global climate and future climate
  change
• Dangerous anthropogenic inter-
  ference with the climate system?
• Climate surprises
• Implications for the Faith Community

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Natural cycles
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Pattern repeats about every 100,000 years
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Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
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Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
2006
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Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
2040
2006
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Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
Business as Usual (fossil intensive) 2100
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Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
Business as Usual (fossil intensive) 2100
?
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Global fossil fuel CO2 emissions with division
into portions that remain airborne or are soaked
up by the ocean and land. Source Hansen and
Sato, PNAS, 101, 16109, 2004.
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El Chichon (1982)
Agung, 1963
Mt. Pinatubo (1991)
Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004
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Source IPCC, 2001 Climate Change 2001 The
Scientific Basis
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Source IPCC, 2001 Climate Change 2001 The
Scientific Basis
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Source Jerry Meehl, National Center for
Atmospheric Research
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Source Jerry Meehl, National Center for
Atmospheric Research
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Source Jerry Meehl, National Center for
Atmospheric Research
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Mann, M. E., R. S. Bailey, and M. K. Hughes,
1999 Geophysical Research Letters 26, 759.
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Source National Center for Atmospheric Research
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The planet is committed to a warming over the
next 50 years regardless of political decisions
Source National Center for Atmospheric Research
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The planet is committed to a warming over the
next 50 years regardless of political decisions
Mitigation Possible
Adaptation Necessary
Source National Center for Atmospheric Research
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Source Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change, 2001 Report
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Climate Change Projected for 2100
Rapid Economic Growth
Slower Economic Growth
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(A) Net Radiation at top of atmosphere in climate
simulations.
(B) Ocean heat gain in the top 750 m of world
ocean.
Source Hansen et al., Science, 308, 1431, 2005.
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Tropical Weather
Weather Underground http//www.wunderground.com/
tropical/
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http//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ImageKatrina_vs_sea_
surface_height.JPG
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Tropical Atlantic Ocean
Hurricane Power Dissipation Index (PDI)
Sea-surface temperature
V
V
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Emanual, Kerry, 2005 Increasing destructiveness
of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years.
Nature, 436, 686-688.
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Tropical Atlantic Ocean
Hurricane Power Dissipation Index (PDI)
Sea-surface temperature
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V
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Emanual, Kerry, 2005 Increasing destructiveness
of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years.
Nature, 436, 686-688.
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Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA)

• 140-page synthesis report released in November
  2004.
• Main science report imminent (chapters available
  electronically at www.acia.uaf.edu).
• Concerns over wide-ranging changes in the Arctic.
• Rising temperatures
• Rising river flows
• Declining snow cover
• Increasing precipitation
• Thawing permafrost
• Diminishing late and river ice
• Melting glaciers
• Melting Greenland Ice Sheet
• Retreating summer sea ice
• Rising sea level
• Ocean salinity changes
• Species at risk include polar bears, seals,
  walruses, Arctic fox, snowy owl, and many species
  of mosses and lichens

Sources Claire Parkinson and Robert Taylor
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NASA photographs show the minimm Arctic sea ice
concentration in 1979 at left and in
2003.Satellite passive microwave data since 1970s
indicate a 3 decrease per decade in arctic sea
ice extent.
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Since 1979, the size of the summer polar ice cap
has shrunk more than 20 percent. (Illustration
from NASA) (http//www.nrdc.org/globalWarming/qth
inice.asp)
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Source Corell, R. W., 2004 Impacts of a
warming Arctic. Arctic Climate Impact Assessment
(www.acia.uaf.edu) Cambridge University Press
(www.cambridge.org).
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Associated Climate Changes

• Global sea-level has increased 1-2 mm/yr
• Duration of ice cover of rivers and lakes
  decreased by 2 weeks in N. Hemisphere
• Arctic ice has thinned substantially, decreased
  in extent by 10-15
• Reduced permafrost in polar, sub-polar,
  mountainous regions
• Growing season lengthened by 1-4 days in N.
  Hemisphere
• Retreat of continental glaciers on all continents
• Poleward shift of animal and plant ranges
• Snow cover decreased by 10
• Earlier flowering dates
• Coral reef bleaching

Source Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change, 2001 Report
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For the Midwest

• Warming will be greater for winter than summer
• Warming will be greater at night than during the
  day
• A 3oF rise in summer daytime temperature triples
  the probability of a heat wave
• Growing season will be longer (8-9 days longer
  now than in 1950)
• More precipitation
• Likely more soil moisture in summer
• More rain will come in intense rainfall events
• Higher stream flow, more flooding

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Climate Surprises

• Breakdown of the ocean thermohaline circulation
  (Greenland melt water)
• Break-off of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet

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Kennedy Space Center
Areas subjected to Inundation with a 1 m (3 ft)
rise in sea level
Miami
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What Constitutes Dangerous Anthropogenic
Interference with the Climate System?

• James Hansen, Director of the NASA Goddard
• Institute for Space Studies
• Radiative forcing limit 1 Watt/ m2
• 1 oC additional rise in global mean
• temperature

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El Chichon (1982)
Agung, 1963
Mt. Pinatubo (1991)
Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004
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El Chichon (1982)
Agung, 1963
Mt. Pinatubo (1991)
Imbalance 1 Watt/m2 in 2018
Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004
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Increasing Melt Area on Greenland
Satellite-era record melt of 2002 was exceeded in
2005. Source Waleed Abdalati, Goddard Space
Flight Center
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Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004
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Kennedy Space Center
Impact of a 1-m rise in sea level on low-lying
areas
Projected sea-level rise In 21st century 0.5 to
1.0 m
Areas subjected to Inundation with a 1 m (3 ft)
rise in sea level
Miami
Source Corell, R. W., 2004 Impacts of a
warming Arctic. Arctic Climate Impact Assessment
(www.acia.uaf.edu) Cambridge University Press
(www.cambridge.org).
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http//www.grida.no/climate/vital/37.htm
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Rawls and Brundtland

• Brundtland Report Concept of Sustainability
• Institutions are sustainable when they
  effectively meet the needs of present generations
  without compromising the ability of
  future generations to meet
  their needs.

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Ten Things You can do to Slow Global Warming

• Change a light
• Drive less
• Recycle more
• Check your tires
• Use less hot water
• Avoid products with a lot of packaging
• Adjust your thermostat
• Plant a tree
• Turn off electrical and electronic devices

From An Inconvenient Truth (www.climatecrisis.
net)
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What Does this Imply for the Faith Community?

• Care for creation - what does this mean in a
  global context?

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What Does this Imply for the Faith Community?

• Care for creation - what does this mean in a
  global context?
• Faith community is joined across space and time
• We have a legacy passed down for the last two
  centuries
• What legacy do we leave?

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What Does this Imply for the Faith Community?

• Care for creation - what does this mean in a
  global context?
• Faith community is joined across space and time
• We have a legacy passed down for the last two
  centuries
• What legacy do we leave?
• How will future generations
  (those whose futures we are
  now constraining) view us and
  our stewardship of the planet?

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What Does this Imply for the Faith Community?

• Responsibility to the natural world

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What Does this Imply for the Faith Community?

• Responsibility to the natural world
• Responsibility to other human beings

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What Does this Imply for the Faith Community?

• Responsibility to the natural world
• Responsibility to other human beings
• International justice

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What Does this Imply for the Faith Community?

• Responsibility to the natural world
• Responsibility to other human beings
• International justice
• Inter-generational equity

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What Does this Imply for the Faith Community?

• Responsibility to the natural world
• Responsibility to other human beings
• International justice
• Inter-generational equity
• From those to whom much has been given will much
  be expected

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What Does this Imply for the Faith Community?

• Responsibility to the natural world
• Responsibility to other human beings
• International justice
• Inter-generational equity
• From those to whom much has been given will much
  be expected
• Resources

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What Does this Imply for the Faith Community?

• Responsibility to the natural world
• Responsibility to other human beings
• International justice
• Inter-generational equity
• From those to whom much has been given will much
  be expected
• Resources
• Knowledge

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For More Information

• For peer-reviewed evidence supporting everything
  you have seen in this presentation, see my online
  Global Change course
• http//www.meteor.iastate.edu/gccourse
• Contact me directly
• gstakle_at_iastate.edu