LongTerm River Basin Planning: GALP Approach

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Long-Term River Basin Planning GA-LP Approach

• Daene McKinney
• Center for Research in Water Resources
• University of Texas at Austin
• Ximing Cai
• International Food Policy Research Institute
• Leon LasdonDepartment of Management Science
• University of Texas at Austin

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Outline

• Sustainability in River Basin Planning
• Modeling Framework
• Solution Approach (GA-LP)
• Application
• Conclusions Next steps

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Sustainability in River Basin Planning

• Concepts of sustainable development
• Demand management, supply reliability and
  flexibility, environmental impact control,
  technology adaptation, economic efficiency, etc
• Broad guidelines
• Provide guidance to planners, but
• Not translated into operational concepts that can
  be applied to specific systems

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Modeling Framework

• Incorporate quantified sustainability criteria
  into long-term water resource systems models
• Relations between water uses and their long-term
  consequences
• Tradeoffs in benefits received over many
  generations

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Application

• Water resources management in river basins with
  (semi) arid climate
• Large diversions to irrigated agriculture
• Potential for environmental degradation from
  water and soil salinity
• Sustainability (one might define it as)
• Ensuring long-term, stable and flexible water
  supply capacity
• Meeting irrigation and growing MI demands,
• Mitigating negative environmental consequences

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Modeling Framework

• Basic Premise
• Short-term decisions should be controlled by
  long-term sustainability criteria
• Long-term (Multi-year) Control
• Inter-Year Control Program (IYCP)
• Long-term model controlling short-term decisions
  to approach sustainability
• Short-term (Annual) Control
• Sequencing of Yearly Models (YMs)
• Short-term models optimizing benefits for a year

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Modeling Framework
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Yearly Model
Constraints Flow balances Salinity
balances Policy constraints
Objective Irrigation benefit Hydropower
benefit Environmental benefit
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Solving the Yearly Model
YM ? FM SM Decompose Linearize LPs for each year
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IYCP Objective Function

• Weighted sum of sustainability criteria
• Risk criteria
• (expressed in terms of agricultural and
  ecological water use)
• Reliability (frequency of system failure)
• Reversibility (time to return from system
  failure)
• Vulnerability (severity of system failure)
• Environmental criteria
• Max allowable water and soil salinities
• Equity criteria
• Temporal (equitable access to benefits over time)
• Spatial (equitable geographic access to water)
• Economic acceptability criteria
• (impact of investment benefits)

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Solving the IYCP
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Application Syr Darya Basin
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Aral Sea Basin XX Cent.
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Aral Sea Basin (1989 2000)

• Question Can irrigated agriculture be sustained
  while minimizing environmental impacts?

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ASB River System
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Irrigation Profit

• Scenarios
• Baseline No change
• Master Area efficiencies are DVs
• Low Irrigation reduced area

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Crop Areas(Master Scenario)
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Efficiencies(Master Scenario)
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Salt
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Sustainability criteria
Sustainability Criteria Scenario REL REV VUL E
NV TEQ SEQ EA Baseline 4 4 4 3 3 3 NA Master 2
2 1 2 2 1 1 Low Irrigation 1 1 2 1 1 2 2 High
Irrigation 3 3 3 4 4 4 3
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Conclusions

• Modeling framework developed
• short-term decisions combined with long-term
  decisions to find sustainable patterns in
  irrigation-dominated river basins
• Results
• Both soil and water salinity sensitive to changes
  in irrigated area over the long-term
• Small increases in irrigated area without
  accompanying infrastructure improvements places
  the environment at risk

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Conclusions

• Next Steps
• Linking water and salt to energy
• WB GEF project has incorporated sustainability
  criteria into their project and are beginning to
  use the models
• Agricultural policy in the region
• Both basins together (linked by energy)
• Water allocation agreements

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CAR Energy System
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Water Results Display
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Energy Results Display
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