GEOGRAPHY 101

1
GEOGRAPHY 101

• Environ-mental
• Geography
• Day 8
• (Week 4)?

2
Chart I Wanted to Show You Last Time
3
Housekeeping Items

• What did you think about Dr. Holling's talk?
• His discussion of ecosystems having different
  stable states also ties in with another idea he
  helped pioneer namely, non-linear cause-effect
  relationships that involve what Malcolm Gladwell
  calls tipping points. In other words, the
  behaviour of a system in the future (in response
  an extra increment of a stress) cannot be
  predicted to be the same as it was in the past.
  At a certain point, there is the straw that
  breaks the camels back.
• The web article he was talking about is at
  http//peopleandplace.net/perspectives/107
• Did anybody go to the session on climate change?
• Joey has recommended two books by Richard
  Heinburg called Peak Everything and Powerdown.

4
Chapter 7 Human Population Trends, Patterns and
Problems

• Humans are a very successful species. If we had
  been able to observe ourselves on the African
  savannah some 400,000 years ago, we would
  probably not have been too impressed we were
  relatively few in number, of average size, weak,
  slow, and lacked effective teeth and claws as
  defensive weapons.
• However, we made up for it with our ability to
  create tools, to cooperate, and to envision and
  plan for the future.
• In the last half million years we have gone from
  a marginal species to the dominant species on the
  planet.

5
(No Transcript)
6
Chapter 7 Human Population Trends, Patterns and
Problems

• As noted last time, the first major population
  explosion coincided with the Agricultural
  Revolution, and the second with the Industrial
  Revolution.
• It took 400,000 years ('til 1830) to produce the
  first billion humans 100 years to produce the
  second 30 years to produce the third 15 years
  to produce the fourth and 12 each, respectively,
  to produce the fifth and sixth. In my lifetime
  alone, the human population has doubled!

7
(No Transcript)
8
Chapter 7 Human Population Trends, Patterns and
Problems

• The 'Industrial Revolution' actually involved
  several interrelated major changes
• exploitation of fossil fuels (initially coal)?
• development of steam engines and other machines
• major improvements in agricultural productivity
  and increasing mechanization
• revolutions in transport (rail, and then internal
  combustion engine)?
• major medical and sanitary advances.

9
Chapter 7 Human Population Trends, Patterns and
Problems

• These technological changes have been further
  amplified by the 'Green Revolution' in
  agriculture and the emergence of biotech.
• In addition, improved sanitation, vaccines,
  antibiotics and the use of DDT and other
  chemicals made it possible to bring major
  infectious and insect-transmitted diseases under
  greater control.
• From the beginning of the Industrial Revolution,
  population growth increased from 0.12 per year
  to 2.1 by the 1960s.

10
Chapter 7 Human Population Trends, Patterns and
Problems

• The human population is now 6.7 billion.This is
  the same as all the people in the world at the
  time of Columbus' voyages to the New World.
• Over the next 90 years, growth rates will slow
  (with virtually all new growth occurring in the
  developing nations) and eventually the human
  population should stabilize at around 9 billion,
  barring ecological disaster, which is a distinct
  possibility, though it could go as high as 11
  billion.

11
Chapter 7 Human Population Trends, Patterns and
Problems

• Over 95 of all growth will occur in developing
  nations.
• Currently, the populations of the 10 world's most
  populous nations account for 60 of the world's
  population (see p. 116). These are (in order)
  China, India, U.S.A., Indonesia, Brazil,
  Pakistan, Bangladesh, Russia, Nigeria, and Japan.
• Of these, only Russia's population is declining.
  With the capitalist restructuring of that
  country, living conditions have greatly worsened
  and death rates have gone up and birth rates down.

12
Chapter 7 Human Population Trends, Patterns and
Problems

• Initially, the densest human populations were
  concentrated in fertile river valleys closest to
  seas and oceans, though some of the original
  'hearth' regions for agriculture were quite arid
  and were made productive through innovative
  practices of irrigation (e.g. Mesopatamia, the
  Nile Valley in Egypt).
• Today, India, China, and Europe, followed by some
  parts of Africa and the U.S., have the greatest
  population density.
• Over time, however, the balance of population has
  shifted for instance, to the 'New World.'

13
(No Transcript)
14
Physiologic Density

• Another key concept is physiologic density which
  is the ratio of population to cropland. As with
  our ecological footprint, this has been growing
  worldwide (less land per person). Populations get
  bigger and cropland becomes as a result of
  losses of various kinds less abundant.
• Interestingly enough, despite having an
  agricultural system that is more backward,
  China supports 5 people for every acre of
  farmland whereas the U.S. and Canada support only
  half a person.

15
'Push' and 'Pull' Factors in Migration

• In addition to population growth through natural
  increase, the population of countries and
  continents has also increased through migration.
  Indeed, that is the only way that many countries
  in Europe are growing at all, if not just
  standing still, as many have a negative birth
  rate. In other words, the average fertility rate
  for women is below that needed to replace the
  existing generation.
• Populations today, and in the past, migrate
  either to escape war, religious and political
  persecution, famine or ecological degradation/
  disasters (push factors).

16
'Push' and 'Pull' Factors in Migration

• Pull factors have included the prospect of
  economic opportunity, such as inexpensive land,
  an abundance of jobs, the prospect of improving
  one's material circumstances, leaving behind (or
  at least amelior-ating) class, racial or
  religious prejudice, and so on.
• In many cases, a combination of both factors have
  been operating to varying degrees.
• Of course, not all people have migrated
  voluntarily. From the 1500s to the mid-1800s, 10
  million Africans were forcibly repatriated from
  their homes to the New World, with many millions
  dying along the way.

17
Schematic of a Slave Ship
18
Redistribution of Population

• While people have remained concentrated in these
  areas most felicitous for human life,
  socio-economic pressure and political policy have
  led to the colonization of previously largely
  inhospitable areas.
• These include
• dry lands
• cold lands at high latitudes
• major mountain ranges
• wet tropics

19
Redistribution of Population

• The environmental consequences have been
  numerous
• oil spills and despoliation of continental
  shelves
• eradication of tropical and boreal forests
• desertification of drylands
• soil erosion and flooding
• loss of slope stability and increase in the
  potential for natural disasters.

20
Coping With Population

• While some jurisdictions, such as China, are
  trying to reduce fertility rates (one child per
  family), others are concerned about declining
  birth rates and are offering bonuses and tax
  breaks for people to have more kids.
• Historically, governments have also offered
  incentives such as cheap land and subsidies to
  encorage internal or external migrants to
  colonize formerly underexploited regions.

21
Key Population Terms

• Ultimately, spatial and temporal changes in
  population are determined by birth rates, death
  rates, and migration.
• Annual natural increase or decrease is derived
  from the difference between crude birth rates and
  crude death rates. The chart on page 119 shows
  these for the world and its major continents.
• Every year, 77 million people (about the size of
  Vietnam) are added to the world's population. If
  a country, this would be the 15th largest country
  in the world.

22
Key Population Terms

• Even when an annual rate of increase is
  relatively small, if the base population is
  large, this can result in significant absolute
  numbers of new people, especially if the
  population is relatively young and is starting to
  move into its reproductive years.
• A population pyramid is a pictorial
  representation of a given country's population by
  age and gender, and will tell us a lot about what
  we can expect to happen in that country in the
  future and what challenges will be.

23
Example of a Population Pyramid
24
Differences Between Rich Poor

• Other important demographic characteristics
  include life expectancy (higher in the developed
  world) and infant mortality (higher in the
  developing world) see the charts and tables on
  page 120.
• Africa has been particularly hard hit by the AIDS
  epidemic. The numbers are just staggering 39 of
  adults infected in Botswana, almost 34 in
  Zimbabwe, and 33.4 in Swaziland.
• AIDS is also spreading in Eastern Europe, India,
  and elsewhere.

25
The Demographic Transition

• Demographers believe in something called the
  demographic transition.

26
The Demographic Transition

• Phase 1 high fluctuating birth rates and death
  rates relatively stable population.
• Phase 2 decline in the death rate owing to
  improved medical and sanitary conditions and
  changes in the economy and in technology, but
  birth rates remain high. Population booms.
• Phase 3 Trend towards urbanization, and better
  health care and education especially for women
  lead to a dramatic decline in the birth rate,
  and the two rates begin to match again. The birth
  rate can even dip below the death rate.

27
The Demographic Transition

• Some nations are caught in a vicious cycle. A too
  large population or rate of growth can place too
  many demands on the economy and on urban systems
  and can prevent the improvements in welfare that
  would lead to the third stage. This seems to be
  the case in large parts of Africa.
• In addition, when so many people are infected by
  HIV, people's economic productivity is hampered
  even further.

28
A Few Other Terms Concepts

• Total fertility rate the average number of
  children born to a woman
• Replacement fertility rate 2.1 or the level at
  which parents will be reproduced. If the FRR is
  below this in countries with low infant and child
  mortality rates, population decline will start to
  occur.
• Age structure where the bulk of the population
  is concentrated (e.g. the baby boom
  generation)?
• Population momentum even with declining
  fertility rates, as a large number of people move
  into their reproductive years, absolute
  population growth will continue to be significant.

29
A Few Other Terms Concepts

• The 1994 Conference on Population and Development
  was held in Cairo, Egypt and produced a World
  Programme of Action (WPOA) negotiated by over 150
  countries and many NGO participants.
• It stressed that the key to population
  stabilization is giving priority to the education
  of women, providing access to reproductive health
  care, and improving child health care and
  survival rates.
• While non-binding, there have been significant
  success stories, such as Thailand and Kenya some
  programs such as China's are still
  controversial.

30
Migration

• International migration from one country and
  continent to another.
• Internal migration from one part of a country to
  another.
• What are some examples of each, both recent and
  historical?
• What are some of the socio-economic consequences
  of both forms of migration?
• What about the environmental impacts?

31
The Poverty Cycle

• In many parts of the world, the poor have
  inade-quate access to food and economic
  opportunities.
• This can lead to expansion of disenfranchised
  groups onto less productive land, causing further
  degradation of the land base.
• Growing unemployment and underemployment also
  lead people into the cities in search of a better
  life.
• Forced to settle on marginal sites, earning their
  living in marginal ways, there is a resulting
  explosion of urban poverty, crime, and health
  problems.

32
The Aging Cycle

• In parts of the world where the population is
  aging, and there are declining birth rates,
  societies face the spectre of having a top-heavy
  population pyramid with too few people in their
  productive years working to support the needs of
  the aged and to keep social security programs
  afloat.
• Such societies often depend on immigration just
  to tread water. Of course, in many cases, they
  only want the cream of the crop of less
  developed countries.

33
The Aging Cycle

• While some immigrants are welcomed, others try to
  force their way in often exposing themselves to
  great personal risk for the chance to better
  themslves in countries like the U.S.
• While flat or negative growth is a problem in a
  few countries, overpopulation is still the major
  trend. 98 of all future growth (likely about a
  50 increase) will occur in just five countries
  India, China, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Nigeria.
• Eventually, the human population will have to
  stabilize and decline if our species is to be
  sustainable.