VISTAS 2002 and 2018 Emissions

1
VISTAS 2002 and 2018 Emissions

• Presented by
• Gregory Stella
• VISTAS Technical Advisor Emission Inventories
• Alpine Geophysics, LLC
• VISTAS State and Tribal Air Directors Meeting
• December 14, 2004
• Charleston, SC

2
VISTAS 2002 Emissions Inventory

• Objective Provide inventories for modeling PM2.5
  and regional haze
• 2002 Emission Inventory
• 1st draft delivered Aug 03
• 2nd draft delivered Apr 04
• 3rd draft delivered Oct 04

3
VISTAS Revised 2002 Inventory

• Utilize June CERR submittals
• Augment State data where pollutants missing
• Generate fires as specific daily events
• Revised plume rise algorithm
• Use MOBILE6 module of SMOKE emissions system
• No annual emissions (SIP-like) available
• Revised temporal and spatial allocation for
  modeling
• New CMU monthly profiles by county/SCC
• Use of actual CEM distributions
• Nationally generated and applied factors

4
Percent Change in VISTAS Emissions2002 Revised
vs. Initial Inventory
July 18 Daily Emissions
5
Percent Change in VISTAS Emissions2002 Revised
vs. Initial Inventory
January 17 Daily Emissions
6
Percent Change in NH3 Emissions2002 Revised vs.
Initial Inventory
7
VISTAS 2018/2009 Emissions

• Start with revised 2002 inputs
• 2018 Base/Control Cases
• Revised draft delivered Nov 04
• 2009 Base/Control Cases
• Revised draft expected mid-Dec 04

8
VISTAS 2018/2009 Emissions

• Whats New?
• Revised VISTAS Base Cases
• CAIR proposal data
• IPM Runs for VISTAS/MRPO

9
Emission Projection Scenarios

• Base 1 (OTB) (Promulgated as of July 1, 2004)
• Atlanta / Northern Kentucky / Birmingham 1-hr
  SIPs
• Combustion Turbine MACT
• Gulf Power SCR application
• Heavy Duty Diesel (2007) Engine Standard
• Industrial Boiler/Process Heater/RICE MACT
• Large Spark Ignition and Recreational Vehicle
  Rule
• Nonroad Diesel Rule
• North Carolina Clean Smokestacks Act
• NOx RACT in 1-hr NAA SIPs
• NOx SIP Call (Phase I)
• Petroleum Refinery Initiative
• RFP 3 Plans where in place for one hour plans
• TECO VEPCO Consent Agreements
• Tier 2 Tailpipe
• Title IV for Phase I and II EGUs
• VOC 2-, 4-, 7-, and 10-year MACT Standards

10
Emission Projection Scenarios

• Base 2a (OTW)
• Base 1 assumptions
• Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR)
• NOx SIP Call (Phase II)
• 8-hr attainment plans (e.g., NOx RACT)
• Base 2b
• Base 2 assumptions
• Excludes CAIR

11
CAIR Proposal Data

• New growth rates and control factors
• Reviewed and felt are improvements to preliminary
  VISTAS projection data
• Growth pre-EGAS 5.0
• Control more current information

12
Integrated Planning Model (IPM)

• VISTAS/MRPO contracted ICF to run IPM for our
  strategies
• Developing 2009 / 2018 power sector (EGU)
  emission projections
• VISTAS Base 1 Base 2
• Files currently in development and review

13
Sensitivity Run Emissions

• Based on Phase I emission inventories, episodes,
  and base case definitions
• Typical 2002, 2018 OTB/OTW
• Do not include many of the improvements
  implemented in the revised 2002 and 2009/2018
  data
• OTB/OTW changes not included
• Comparisons for Jan 17, 2002 and Jul 18,2001
  episode days
• NOx, SO2, PM-10, NH3

14
January 17, 2002 Daily NOx Emissions2002 vs.
2018 Scenarios (Sensitivity Data)
15
January 17, 2002 Daily SO2 Emissions2002 vs.
2018 Scenarios (Sensitivity Data)
16
January 17, 2002 Daily PM-10 Emissions2002 vs.
2018 Scenarios (Sensitivity Data)
17
January 17, 2002 Daily NH3 Emissions2002 vs.
2018 Scenarios (Sensitivity Data)