Crime Statistics and EU Organised Crime Threat Assessment

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Crime Statistics and EU Organised Crime Threat
Assessment

• Prof. Dr. Tom Vander Beken
• EU Forum for the prevention of organised crime
• Towards comparable information on crime,
  victimisation and criminal justice an EU wide
  approach
• European Commission, Brussels, 9 July 2004

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Overview

• 1. What organised crime information is available
  in the EU?
• 2. What does the EU need?
• 3. The EU-Action Plan
• 4. Conclusions

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1. Information on OC- State of the art

• Collecting All MS and Europol collect
  information on organised crime. Nearly all
  information is law enforcement information.
  Definitions for data collection and data
  collection plans differ from MS to MS.
• Analysing Organised crime information is
  analysed by all MS and Europol, but in different
  ways. This makes the national reports very hybrid
  and the drafting of an EU picture extremely
  difficult. Very few analytical standards. Mostly
  traditional crime analysis of criminals and
  groups. Hardly or not future oriented. No real
  threat assessment. Few assessments of harm.
• Comparing National data and analysis are very
  different in nature and quality comparability?

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2. What does the EU need?

• Continued work is needed to improve the
  validity, reliability and international
  comparability of data on organised crime, and on
  the annual situation reports. In this connection
  a uniform concept of collection and use of data
  on organised crime and related phenomena should,
  to the maximum extent possible, be established so
  that a practical strategic analysis can be made,
  leading to the most appropriate measures to
  combat and prevent organised crime.
• A more proactive, intelligence-led approach is
  needed to detect and interrupt organised criminal
  activities, apprehend offenders, demolish
  criminal networks, and seize and confiscate the
  proceeds of crime. The targetting of
  investigation and the planning of the response of
  society to organised crime requires knowledge of
  the profile, motives and modus operandi of the
  offenders, the scope and trends in organised
  crime, the impact of organised crime in society,
  and the effectiveness of the response to
  organised crime. This knowledge includes
  operational data (data related to individual
  suspected and detected cases) and empirical data
  (qualitative and quantitative criminological
  data) (Millenniumstrategy, 2000)
• Analytical capacity within law enforcement
  agencies of the Member States is a rather new
  tool and, if available, is usually applied within
  the context of evidence gathering but not for
  detection and anticipation of crime-facilitating
  opportunities and crime trends. Threat
  assessments, situation reports and risk
  assessments (identification of vulnerable areas)
  carried out by law enforcement agencies are often
  descriptive analysis products. These products
  should, in addition, be turned into explanatory
  (understanding the causes of crime) and
  predictive (prognosis of future developments)
  analytical products. (Joint Report by the
  Commission Services and Europol, 2001)

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3. The EU-Action plan (a)

• 2000 Scientific research for the Belgian
  Minister of Justice on the development of a new
  methodology for the Belgian organised crime
  report. Introduction of a future oriented, risk
  based four-pillared reporting system
  environmental scan (1), oc-group analysis (2),
  counter measure analysis (3) and market (illegal
  and legal) analysis (4)
• Reporting on organised crime. A Shift from
  Description to Explanation in the Belgian Annual
  Report on Organised Crime (2001)
• 2001 Acceptance of the IRCP-methodology at
  EU-level
• Action Plan to Study Organised Crime at
  European Level (Council of the European Union, 8
  January 2002, Crimorg 133, 14959/01)

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3. The EU-action plan (b)

• Conceptual, model, methodology and outcome (IRCP
  2001 and Crimorg 2001)

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3. The EU-Action plan (c)

• 2002-2003 Scientific research for the European
  Commission on the development of a methodology
  for measuring organised crime in Europe
  (IRCP-Transcrime-Swedish Council for Crime
  Prevention)
• Pilot study in Belgium, Italy, Sweden and the EU
  current practices on measurement of oc,
  discussion on impact/harm oc, organised crime
  risk index
• (co-financed under Hippokrates I programme
  JAI/2001/HIP/015)
• Feasibility study of a risk-based methodology
  across the European Union best practices in
  other MS on reporting on oc, including analysis,
  data sources etc.
• (co-financed under Hippokrates II programme -
  JAI/2002/HIP/009)
• Measuring Organised Crime in Europe (2004)

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3. The EU Action plan (d)

• 2003-2004 Scientific research for the European
  Commission on the Measurement and Assessment of
  Vulnerability of Economic Sectors (MAVUS)
  development of a methodology and vulnerability of
  two economic sectors
• (IRCP and Transcrime)
• Financed under the AGIS programme
  (JAI/2003/AGIS/132)

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3. The EU Action Plan (e)

• 2004-2005 Scientific research for the European
  Commission on the Method and the Assessment of
  Likely Future Trends in Organised Crime in Europe
  (OCO) development of a method for environmental
  scanning, draft of an EU scan and three national
  scans (Belgium, Sweden and Slovenia)
• (IRCP Swedish Council for Crime Prevention
  and Slovenian Office for Prevention of
  Corruption)
• (To be financed under AGIS programme 2004)

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4. Conclusions

• Measurement of organised crime is a priority in
  the EU.
• Reliable and comparable information and
  statistics are absolutely necessary
• The methodological choices of the EU
  (risk/threat assessment) require not only data
  about crimes and criminals (law enforcement
  activity).
• Importance of environmental scans, (legal and
  illegal) market analysis (vulnerability studies
  and studies about involvement).